Monday’s Trading – 1/11/10

The SPX’s 200-month moving average is at 1156, which is also the top of the Box of Beer. That confluence should provide some sort of resistance.

Alcoa reports earnings after he bell.

It’s so cold in Miami that the Mango’s girls were wearing mittens yesterday. You have a lot of explaining to do, Mr. Gore. And look at these poor manatees, desperately clinging to one of the few remaining plants in our fabulous new factory-free landscape. Now that all of our factories are located in foreign lands, we have no means to beat back this wave of global cooling. And as Joe Sixpack heads to the unemployment office, he now has to dodge frozen iguanas falling from the trees.

42 thoughts on “Monday’s Trading – 1/11/10

  1. John M Keynes

    “Thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest! For that may enable the so-called boom to last.

    The right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi-slump; but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi-boom.”

    [General Theory, Bk. IV, Ch. 22, Sect. III]

  2. futes, 7:45…i thought the nas would be higher…
    i’m likely switching tactics and going a bit net long during the day, probably chasing and probably sign of a top…would be conservative stuff in Cda, an oil, a gold, income stuff, etc…probably jettison the, and maybe fxp, maybe tlt

    best wishes…
    Futures Prices
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 83.91 +1.16 +1.40
    Natural Gas 5.581 -0.131 -2.29
    Corn 423.0 +5.5 +1.31
    Soybeans 1022 -4 -0.39
    30yr Bond 115.00000 -0.46875 -0.41
    10yr Note 116.03125 +0.1875 +0.16
    NY Gold 1158.1 +19.2 +1.69
    NY Silver 18.855 +0.385 +2.08
    Emini S&P 1146.00 +4.5 +0.39
    Emini Nasdaq 1896.25 +6.25 +0.33
    Emini Dow 10605 +39 +0.37

  3. K,

    I like what you said better: “Beauty is in the eyes of the stockholder”.

    I savor the extremes because I know they will return to the norm, whatever that is?

  4. In church yesterday, the preacher was winding up the sermon by saying a prayer. He said: “let us pray; every head bowed, every eye closed, every dip bought”. I’m thinking he’s thinking of praying for the continued miracle. After all, the sun is shining, God’s in heaven, and all’s right with the world.

    Pray for volatility.

  5. George

    You reminded me of the little boy that told his preacher he was praying for a new bicycle. The preacher told him with all the problems in the world, the little boy could find a more redeeming effort to ask God to attend. The discouraged little boy went home. After some insightful thinking, he decided to steal a new bike, and pray for the other kid’s loss, and for his forgiveness.


  6. Stringm, LOL! De Boy got his priorities straight, huh?

    Reminds me of my son during grade school, he was making bad grades. I told him to not bring those bad grades home. One day the bus driver came to the door and handed me a stack of papers and said my son left these on the bus. Well, my son did what I asked… he didn’t bring them home.

    I thought more carefully the next time I said something to him.

  7. today’s high of 1149.74 came within 2 points of my 1152 target (remember i said the longer the rally drags the higher my target will be?

    if this redness keeps up today 1088 up ahead to “test” it one more time before flunking 20%+

  8. From Bloomberg: Dubai’s First Foreclosure May Open Floodgates in Worst Market (ht Nanoo-Nanoo, Steve)
    Dubai’s housing rout sent prices down 52 percent in the past year, prompting some homeowners to abandon their cars and mortgage payments and flee the country. Not one received a foreclosure notice.

    Until now.

    Barclays Plc won the sheikdom’s first foreclosure cases in court, clearing the way for lenders holding about $16 billion of Dubai home loans to take action when borrowers don’t pay.

    Moody’s estimated in September that 12 percent of the 27,000 residential mortgages in the sheikdom would default within 12 to 18 months.

  9. chased some longs @ open, so hedged them w)jan calls sold…didn’t sell any short positions…line in sand on ndx100 = 1871, if looking to close < that, will consider adding shorts…
    vxx is tempting, but been there done that…i dunno…anybody?

  10. after,

    VXX will be a great trade. I’m watching its 15min and playing only that time frame. If it breaks the upper trendline, I’ll buy, put a stop at the lower support line and let it fly.

  11. after,

    That VXX strategy is my current one but could change depending upon market conditions. If it gets more volatile, I may scalp the 1 and 5min as well as a core position.

    The market will eventually break and I’ll let it tell me when that happens. Patience is a virtue and all that.

  12. after, I purchased VXX (100 shares) at $29.55 last Friday near the close. Tempted to buy more, but since I already have some, I’ll just sit and wait for the “time” to be right, ala George. I’ve got my foot in the door though. Daneric’s chart indicates that this low $VIX could be the throwunder before it heads back up though. So far, his EWT count is holding up with wave 5 (and V, and possibly [2]) coming with this morning’s gap open to just under 1150.

    George, I almost played the gap close with SDS this morning, but decided against it since I had to head to work. At least I’m thinking in the right direction!

  13. 2thfixr,

    I faded that gap on the inverse. Worked well, but they are having to work hard right now that SPY has bounced off its 15min 36MA support.

  14. SDS made a new all-time low today but the current candle is green. Maybe this is its last low of the year? Nah. Looking at the market through my SPYglass, I see green shoots in its future.

  15. Alcoa reopened for trading. It fell like that SPX misprint. Was down over 4.3% then within a minute or two was down 6.65% as of 4:49.

    What if that misprint becomes a reality on an screen near you… and soon.

  16. K,

    You are noticing TrimTabs now because you know who they are. Like when you get a new car and all of sudden start noticing all the other people with the same model. Charles Biderman has been criticizing the BLS for many years – especially when their reports don’t agree with his position in the futures.


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