Call of Fame
I am pleased to report that another one of my calls has been enshrined in the Call of Fame by a unanimous vote of the induction committee which consists of three voting members (me, myself, and I). However, even though SPY popped out of its falling wedge pattern at noon on Friday, the bulls weren’t able to build much momentum.
Bulls Clubbed Like Baby Seals
For three days in a row, the QQQQ has gapped down, and retraced weakly. Dip-buying bulls who stepped in to buy the down-gaps had to be satisfied with meager profits taken quickly, or get clubbed like a baby seal. The psychological impact of this pattern is that if the Q’s drop again on Monday morning, the bulls will be less likely to stick their fingers into the light socket again. And if the dip-buyers step aside, then the market would whoosh down searching for another stratum of buyers. So, it is critical for the bulls to break the pattern.
Today’s Setup
Bullish Factors:
1) Cheerful holiday trading atmosphere.
Bearish Factors:
1) Breadth is no longer deeply oversold.
2) The VIX is still very low indicating complacency
3) As 2thfixr pointed out, there is a sinister broadening pattern on the NASDAQ chart.
4) Bears have the momentum.
Not-So-Fast, or Swift, Money
On Friday’s episode of Fast Money, the genius traders began to talk about parabolic gold. But you read it here first, three days prior. The pony-tail guy even mentioned Daneric’s 1300 target, and credited it to the dopey Fast Money weather man, “Glide Path”. Weasels. How long will it be before they start talking about K’s Ted Spread? Speaking of which, the traders also said that they “didn’t get” the negative yield on T-bills. What’s not to get? The big money is afraid of something. If you want to take the attitude: “I don’t get why the big money is fearful, but I’m not” go right ahead. And I wish you luck.
(Note: AEP discusses a $6300 gold target here.)
Pony-Tail also raved about “Mutual Fund Monday” where, allegedly, money pours into mutual funds over the weekend and the fund managers then buy stocks with it on Monday. However, if you actually look at the data, you will see that funds which invest in US stocks have been suffering redemptions for 13 weeks in a row! Data here.
You Throw Like a Girl Compared to Her
On Friday, I flipped the channel at the exact moment that a hot chick in a bikini was throwing a perfect 40-yard touchdown pass. My jaw hit the floor. What the hell was that? It was Anonka Dixon of the local franchise of the Lingerie Football League, the Miami Caliente. The players and coaches take their football very seriously, but management does not. So, I couldn’t find a professionally done highlights reel. But at 1:04 into this video, you can see Dixon throw a touchdown. Playing on AstroTurf is bad enough, but doing it with no clothes on has to take a toll. By the end of the season, these girls will be walking scabs. I hope that they are being paid well.
in the upcoming 4 weeks we will see spx have quite a few days of explosive moves down by about 30-40 pts. deadline for this is off course christmas when santa delivers final blow down the chimney.
since I wont be on much tomorrow during the good part of the day here is the futures pivots.
R3 1107
R2 1101
R1 1095.5
P 1089.5
S1 1084
S2 1078
S3 1072.5
Current price 1094 today’s current high was as much as 1094.75 which is close to the R1. usually once R1 is broken R2 serves as very good resistance.
because after has gold puts and gold is in everyone’s mind here is a major thing to consider.
look at resistance and support in gold futures.
R3 1187.40
R2 1169.3
R1 1168.8
P 1150.6
S1 1150.1
S2 1131.9
S3 1131.4
first of all gold is now at 1163.50 which is above the Pivot point.
The high is 1165.1 which is about 3-4 bucks below the double whammy mentioned below.
notice anything from those pivot values?
from R1-R2 the difference is 0.5 meaning 1169 should be good resistance for gold. (double whammy)
in the P-S1 difference is 0.5 which means once this strong pivot point is broken and gold is below 1150 it should then drop to the next target at 1131 (diff between S2 and S3 is also 0.5 maybe these are rounded or just coincidence but it makes no difference.)
I too might get a gold put as if it goes 30 bucks down to 1130 short term then back towards 900′s it will make a good play.
just something to watch though. I got my target set on nov 25 for my 25% increase in shorts even if i miss the top.
night all
approx 7:30 am
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 77.47 -0.58 -0.75
Natural Gas 4.758 +0.043 +0.91
Corn 407.00 -5.00 -1.23
Soybeans 1046 +6 +0.57
30yr Bond 120.59375 -0.28125 -0.23
10yr Note 119.5625 -0.09375 -0.08
NY Gold 1146.8 +4.9 +0.43
NY Silver 18.44 -0.015 -0.08
Emini S&P 1101.5 +11.5 +1.05
Emini Nasdaq 1780.5 +17.00 +0.96
Emini Dow 10401 +98 +0.95
—-
will consider a bit more nas short @ 1796 or higher…
St. Louis Fed member Bullard said over the weekend that he favors extending the Fed’s program of purchasing mortgage-backed securities beyond the 1st Q next year.
This adds many more months to the low rates for an ‘extended period of time.’ His comments have pummeled the US Greenback, and as the dollar fell, stock futures soared. Gold hit fresh record highs.
“By the end of the season, these girls will be walking scabs.” How Funny! I choked on my peanuts!!!!
Here’s a goodie from Barrons about BBT, the Belle of the South.
http://tinyurl.com/yhb56r9
The market is attempting to fill Thursday morning’s down-gap. For SPY, that’s 111.28.
SOLD 1/2 of DDM in case this is wave B…if not UPWARD ACCELERATION in wave 3 is ahead ….will hold the rest for now
NEW HIGHS in dow….no bearish count possible here
QQQQ very weak…bad for the bull case ..fractured market =dangerous
SPY gap is filled.
Phil, the NDX is up more in percentage terms than the DOW. Just sayin’
2th…dont care about that…new high prevents bearish case..i want the dow
2th.FIXER.i want to buy more QID as i sell my DDM as the market goes higher
I’m about to buy some more QID myself. Looking for a signal.
LINE DRAWN across tops of DOW for last 6 months sits near 10511….will sell more DDM there but will not buy more QID >>>>>>YET!
Huge daily gap up on SPY and Q’s.
NOTE we are above .618 retrace of wave down http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SwgdhMPIEbI/AAAAAAAAC30/deI8wZSRH-Q/s1600/SPX+30+min.png
GEORGE…if this gap holds it could be the BLAST OFF point for WAVE 3 up..dont get too excited yet …the B wave opition has not been ruled out yet
SPX must print 1113.70 to end the bear case
phil,
Gotcha. Getting close to bear-ending excitement.
order in for more hqd.to @ 13.71 which is the current low for the day…
ndx up 1.97 % as i type…
ouch, key in a quote for vxx, 39.03
LINE across most recent 2 DOW highs in last 10 days sits near 10575….MY TARGET ZONE to sell DDM is between DOW 10511 and 10575
2thfixr,
Looks like the COMPQX used a gap to fill the gap. Now it can possibly be played for a downside move.
george..looks like SPY made a new high by a few cents…never know with those crazy spy candles
GEORGE..KENNYS charts show spy made new high by 5c
I think i got a bit too cute on buying hqd.to , should set a price target and don’t adjust just cuz the market seems to be running away and fear kicks in…might still get filled, if the nas gets back to daily highs…
Matt – back to that awesome oscillator, thanks, is there a site which posts this chart daily by any chance ?
thanks again…
oops, too cute by trying to lowball at the days low, i haven’t been filled on the hqd.to
best wishes all…
phil,
I noticed that… SPY making a new high with that spike. It’s nearing its 5min 36MA and that may be the tell of the tape.
SPY 5min 36MA support that is…
I loaded up on the inverse after that top. Luv’in SRS. ICE moving well too. Don’t know how long that will last.
Would like the gap to be filled then another big move up. Will depend upon what SPY does here.
If SPY catches a bid here and moves higher, that would be great too. Then it will leave behind two nice up gaps to be filled.
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SPY not looking good right now. It broke through its 5min 36MA and will test that area at some point as resistance.
Here’s an updated SPY weekly:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b26be673-d7e6-4ba5-8d96-3813475685d0
Over the weekend I bought “The Ultimate Day Trader” by Jacob Bernstein. I’ve only started reading it and I hope to pick up some good tips.
Film at 11.
DOW looks like its turning up..maybe can drag rest up for one more high
ACtUALLY qqqq 1min ma is the one that has turned up
QQQQ formed morning star candle pattern on 15 min just now
SCRATCH that ….its a hammer followed by bullish engulfing candle..not really morning star
http://www.candlestickchart.com/indicators/1130.html
US auctions $44 billion in 2-year notes at high yield of .802%, bid to cover of 3.16 (Source CNBC RT)
phil Says:
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:03 am
SPX must print 1113.70 to end the bear case
Phil, I just dropped by to say how nicely 1113 wall acted but looks like you got it covered can’t wait till the 25th to add to shorts.
SKF nearing its 15min 36MA. As is SRS.
BofA lifts S&P 500 target to 1,275, oil to $85 MarketWatch
Hmm when did BAC last speak about a market target? Seems to me like we put a cork on this rally now.
SPY has dug its heels in to make another attempt at the 5min 36MA. This time could be successful because it has managed to turn its 15min stochastic up although it has not crossed its 80 line yet. Just swinging the 1min and waiting to see what happens.
Well, I meant to say that’s SPY’s 5min 36MA resistance and that stochastic on the 15min is turning up over the 20 line, not the 80. DUh.
MOON http://slopeofhope.com/2009/11/its-all-written-in-the-moon-by-fujisan.html
http://static.businessinsider.com/~~/f?id=4b0ae4ae00000000001d8e67
CDS Volumes Spike As Traders Bet The U.S And U.K. Will Default
IMF: Another Bailout Will Destroy Democracy
SOLD more DDM at the close with 20 seconds to spare..i think we can take out fridays lows……SMELLS of B wave stench….
I’ll join you wednesday in creating wave b
the ted actually fell ok good to know.
hp beat 4q estimates and is still down afterhours