TED
Could the rising TED Spread be signaling a banking crisis in Japan? See the AEP story here. Here is a quote:
“The debt situation is irrecoverable,” said Carl Weinberg from High Frequency Economics. “I don’t see any orderly way out of this. They will not be able to fund their deficit. There will be a fiscal shutdown, a pension haircut, and bank failures that will rock the world. It is criminally negligent that rating agencies are not blowing the whistle on this.”
Cisco
Cisco is one of the few stocks that can turn the market on its own, and that’s what it did last week. But while CEO John Chambers raved about the turn in the economy that he sees, Cisco is not hiring. They said that they are planning “targeted” hiring. Translated into English, that means: “We are thinking about hiring a handful of people.” And so, the market has rallied on Chambers’ ability to forecast the economy. Maybe that’s good enough; maybe not. CSCO is in a bull-flag pattern since reporting, and finished the week with an increase in momentum during the last hour on Friday. Cisco helped the market to shrug off the negative surprise from the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday morning, so I think it is critical for Cisco to continue leading this week.
On Friday afternoon, the IWM, XME, EEM and SMH all made 9/36/15 cross-downs. However, the QQQQ never blinked and lead the market into the close. So, it looks like the Q’s saved the day. The one fly in the ointment is the SMH, which closed weakly. I suppose the semiconductors are more sensitive to high unemployment since that may weaken the demand for semiconductor-laden consumer gadgets.
YEAAHH I love the TED.
thats all I gotta say.it will be a disaster once there is a leak in the Dam. TED is hovering on top of 50 EMA and i believe a crossup on 20 and 30EMA’s is first since before october’s big crash. still below norm but higher TED = higher VIX . Higher VIX = Lower Market and higher put options
I like Very much
K, this Ted story, you are trading it via puts ? is there a more direct Japan related trade, K or anybody ?
have we heard from Larry lately ? wondering how he is positioned now.
after is basically in ca$h…was thinking a bit about hgd.to
After,
I’m just mainly trading index inverses or buying puts on S&P and other liquid markets. (Also my UUP 23 december call because if market turns down dollar goes up)
havent had time to look for other investments
K, thx
futes as of about 7:30, up up and away ? i’d put in a -ng- here except i’m “basically in ca$h” (nas up 15.75, etc.)
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 78.44 +1.01 +1.30
Natural Gas 4.588 -0.007 -0.15
Corn 367.0 -9.5 -2.59
Soybeans 955 -17 -1.78
30yr Bond 118.21875 -0.21875 -0.18
10yr Note 118.421875 +0.34375 +0.29
NY Gold 1095.7 +6.4 +0.58
NY Silver 17.375 -0.035 -0.20
Emini S&P 1076.5 +10.25 +0.96
Emini Nasdaq 1745.5 +15.75 +0.91
Emini Dow 10063 +85 +0.86
i was looking for 8+ in futures.. nicee thanks for posting. perfect head and shoulders ready to play out in daily i believe
Futures are up even more on G-20 continued stimulus news (allegedly) which tells you how dependent on policy this all is and how much gum and baling wire is holding things together. The inverse correlation between $down and assets Up (think of hundreds of colored balloons floating the house away) also tells us this is a speculative market driven by the $ carry trade and floating on a see of CentBank liquidity. Trying to trackback all these screwy policy linkages will make your head hurt (or at least it did mine) not helped by all the guys who’re talking their ideologies and books, not their data, analysis and investigations. My best shot – bearing in mind I’m now brain-damaged is:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/11/turbulence_isnt_chaos_dollar_r.html
Might want to park that for weekend reading. Even if you think I’m nuts the shopping list is worth checking out for yourselves.
Chamber and CSCO are incurable optimists. Back when K was only thinking about HS (or grade skul?
) they blew off the Tech Bubble and their own data because it couldn’t happen to them. It was a near-death experience. That said earnings are backward looking and dressed.
The real thing – and again history – this is exactly all the talk that was percolating around ’03 that business investment would save us. Instead profits were at six decade historical highs as hiring and capex spending were curtailed. Both are lagging and dependent decisions that look at future demand. If it doesn’t grow neither do they. Instead we got all sorts of buybacks and funny manuvers.
A “strong” Tech spending outlook depends on a strong recovery in Employment and Consumer Spending and will lag those by a year or more. It takes 5-6% real GDP growth to dent employment and the l.t. average if for 2.5%! What do you think the growth in Investment and Employment will be then?
The good news is we’re looking at a decade of a Traders market – good for you guys. The bad news is it’s fragile and exposed with a frayed safety rope (scary for old climbers) so Matt’s RYFO (rip your face off) environment is likely to be the norm as well. With lots of blindsides floating around like a collapse in Japanese debt issuance finance!
MATT….i am selling all my QLD at the open….if however we do not turn around and start to break below 1059..i will be buying back BIG because the UPWARD ACCELERATION i reminded you about would come back to the forefront …eliminatiing this as a B wave and sending us QUICKLY above SPX 1200 in a full fledged BUYING PANIC
Looks like some Wild West trading on Thursday and Friday. SPY daily made a higher low on the last pull back. Now waiting on a higher high.
SDS daily did a Humpty over the 36MA but has not given a sell signal per the MACD. Still some hope there that it may recover.
SKF over its daily 36MA and could back-test that as support and go either way. Not unusual to fail one or two times before catching hold.
phil,
Very well could be some buying panic. We’re past the “month-end effect” and if price continues upward that may be the direction for the remaining of the year.
March is always funky in that it has market turns so perhaps “up” will be the direction until then.
I too am waiting on a blow-off top.
SOLD longs
phil, nice, seems to be backing off here.
Nice daily gap up on SPY. Good opportunity for it to run back down at some point.
SKF had a daily gap down too.
I think it’s time to take a critical look at UNG here/now.
EWT says UNG needs to drop below last low to complete a wave (V), so this may be a touch early to buy UNG. I’m looking at it too, is the only reason I point this out.
Tooth: Is that the last closing low or the last intraday low?
the chart is based off ANY trade, so not a closing low.
Tooth: Thanks.
The low I have listed is $8.94.
Tooth: Elliottwave is at best “foggy”. UNG is ripe for a turn around anywhere between here and 9. If I see strong buying coming in, I will ” back up the truck. “
Looks like a push to 1090 SPX based upon the inverse H&S target is going to hold true, which will complete the larger H&S top from Sept, Oct, and Nov. Plus, 11/10 is a Bradley turn date.
Good trading to you Jim. Make your play.
2TH……..tbt looks just like $ tyx …not $TNX…i have found my long 10 short 30 yr …..long tbt and the 10 yr note
watching if/when ndx can reach 1807, currently 1756 or so
not doing anything with hgd.to today
Yup, the 30 year bond (20+) is what it is supposed to follow. so that would make sense! good catch. thanks.
off to work….good trading everyone.
2TH..GEORGE.. MITCH…SCROLL to 30 yr bond .. new lows ahead http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3271025
Phil,
The motion of the ocean depends on so many things right? The average maturity Treasury has to fund is 48 months. Treasury is getting ready to roll some debt with funds from the long bond. Guess what, you can’t front run the short duration with any comfort from big daddy – the power to print and hence front run rests with the banks.
Can soup natzi chop these prices up walfart style and make some soup?
phil,
Tks for the link. I’ve been hoppin’ this AM with scalps. I’m hoping all of these daily gaps won’t be filled today.
GEORGE…looks like i am going to be buying back what i sold this am…hope i dont have to pay too much more…..lol
george….looks like 1080 area is good to buy
Is this how health care is going to affect the market? I haven’t checked, but Big Pharma and other related industries must be on a boom.
The market is up to the blue line on my Pincers chart:
http://www.trivisonno.com/pincers
That’s the weekly 100MA, which stands at 1090.38. Will the market punch through? I don’t know, but the NDX has already punched through all of its weekly MAs (20, 50, 100, 200).
URE on a nice move up. Had a 9/35/15 cross on the open. Up .20c for me.
Lots of buying. Won’t be easy to turn the market around with this kind of power.
I’m careful of any surges in SPY at this point – could be a bull trap for scalpers.
SMALL SHORT here
QID @ 21.52
After,
I got it!!!
Short EWJ.
. That’s like shorting japan.
That’s 3 tops SPY has made on the 1min.
Tops broken
BAC forming a triangle on the 1 min?
GEORGE…..this is probably the top….i just bought back half my longs
GEORGE..keeping my little QID as a hedge
phil,
I hope to see some nice profit-taking at the end here. If this is a true rally, it won’t happen, or at least it won’t amount to much.
The only flaw that I can see in today’s tape is that the small caps are under-performing, and small-cap breadth is in a slight downtrend.
MATT…that IS bothersome…dow leading the way usually is seen at the end of a rally
Shorts are throwing in (and the bulls are trampling on) the towel…market mania has arrived and could stay with us until the end of the year. Hope no one is looking to travel overseas for the holidays or to buy jewelry for Xmas…I always liked those fruit cakes myself.
Luv fruitcakes and coffee.
I’m eyeballing that gap up today on SPY, that’s a setup for a fall of some type.
The NDX may make a new closing high today.
1763.15 is the high close for the NDX from Oct 22.
1097.91 is the high close for the SPX from Oct 19.
I guess we have the answer. Bulls rule.
SKF will be a teenager before long. I thought it was getting older.
Bull Trap EOD?
No soup for me today? Ok ill come back in 1 week with a pot full.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/central-bankers-fears-they-watch-plummeting-dollar
http://caseyresearch.com/displayCdd.php?id=271
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency
George,
Happy you had a great fishing trip. Think
you will agree with us…if you give a person
a fish, you’ve fed them for the day. But if
you teach a person how to fish, you’ve fed
them for life.
what if you teach the person to phish?
Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach a man to phish, and he’ll clean out your bank account.
1097 on SPX is where i want to see us top out.
We thonk the stock market is forming a X-wave
top…extreme moves are ahead
am sorry 1113 is where i see it going by 11/13 if my very scary scenario happens to play out. if not 1097 by tomorrow might be ok with me.
and i said very scary because it’s friday the 13th. and market also being at 1113 (very doeable at present conditions) on friday would scare goldman. After all they are doing God’s work and we all know the devil and evil spirits own #13
ok there we go my mythological reasoning as to why that’s an extreme high if it happens
Julie, what is an X wave top ?
thx
Julie
You have done a good job in teaching me how to trade. I would really like to think there is a top to this insanity, but I am afraid there has been a total disconnect from reality. This is beyond “Irrational Exuberance” and likely will go higher. I don’t know what an x top is either, but I know manipulation when I see it. The forces that are to be have decided that inflating prices and devaluing the dollar serves us best. I would not necessarily have a big problem with that if they had told me up front what they were doing, like they did the big banks. On top of that Barama called a meeting with all of them last March and stated we are all in this together. It seems like with all the big three getting record bonuses that we are not exactly together here.
If someone would organize the “March on Washington”, I would surely join.
String
FREAKING TED -9%
you know what that means? X top in the works. haha
K, i might be in total agreement, if i only knew what an X top actually was, LOL
nov qqqq 42 puts, just as an example…
anyone tempted ?
I’ve got SDS Dec calls from this summer, so I’ve got some protection to the downside. Plus, I’ve got QID and SDS in pure stock form as well. Looking for a Bradley turn date and a retest of 1030 and lower later this month. November options may not be enough time to enjoy the next leg down.
I hear you String. It is making me question my belief in technical analysis right now (feels like a rigged game), but I’m holding tight to the MACD and RSI divergences against the higher highs and the lack of volume on up days.
Another thought…if it can go UP this fast, this furiously…then coming down could be REALLY fast and furious! Yikes!
after,
all that I know is that an X wave is a huge Elliot wave signal that tells us trend is about to change. I will let Julie explain further as I am not yet proficient in Elliot.
After,
let’s go after nov $43 qqqq puts shall we?
Julie,
Thanks, the vacation was relaxing and fun. I don’t like the vacations where you come back needing a rest.
Agree with the teaching “rule”. Nicely put.
Google…12000 years of elliott waves…
Click on “An Elliott Wave Perspective”…
Click on current X Wave on right side as
you scroll down.
String,
You hit the nail on the head. The “too big
to fail” are now bigger than ever, and if
they had to mark their assets to the
market, the odds are that they would
go belly up and cost us another $Trillion
or two.
The too big to fail do not worry about
risk because the U.S. Govt. will bail
them out.