-300k Cometh
Bloomberg’s survey of economists shows that expectations for Friday’s jobs report is for 320,000 jobs lost in November.
If you look at the historical data, you will see that the worst report of the last recession was -330k in October of 2001. The stock market bottomed one full year later!
So, even if this is as bad as it gets, there is a good chance that we will see another year of bear-market action. And of course it can get worse. We topped -400k in May 1980.
ice is yummy at the moment
no way we’re closing above 83 today.
Next up. Homer Simpson
here we go.
http://www.edibleapple.com/the-simpsons-parody-ipods-iphones-apple-stores-steve-jobs-and-even-apples-1984-commercial/
HAHAHAH you asked for homer david you got it.
Matt.. are you covering your shorts or are you letting them ride?
Paulson’s nose looks like Pinochio’s or however one spells it.
Charlie,
I’m letting them ride. Meredith Whitney is going to be on CNBC! The market has yet to not crash when she is on.
Matt
distribution bar on NYSE like the one on the 19th, and the next day was down big too
No K that was Afred E Newman, Homer is next
good point matt. i really need a tv guide from you. back in TZA till tomorrow.
When is she on Matt?
This is going to get ugly. Merideath wrote some bad things in the FT last week – along the lines that she is more bearish than ever before.
Shorts starting to cover now.
another bottom caller on bloomberg tv forgot the name just now. HAH
Laszlo Birinyi is the person that calling a bottom on bloomberg tv
Meri-death knocked Citigroup down almost 10%. She said Wells Fargo was her favorite short, that the banks were pulling credit from consumers, and that the bank stocks were “very, very expensive.” You can’t be long when Maria Bartiromo brings Whitney on. Look for Whitney to appear every couple of weeks between 3-4pm.
I must say that SRS is a crazy instrument. Missed out on over $20 in gains today. Sold too early.. lol.. but I already made over $20 on it already.
Wow..who can say BIG DECLINE today !…this looks fugly…any thoughts where this decline may stop in the next week or two ? I am still guessing we come close or touch nov lows before the next BM rally. The reliable sell signals that are hanky and benny work again.
K,
Birinyi is very smart guy. He actually called the bottom in 2002 right on the nose in a Forbes magazine column. But this year, he is not doing so well. I believe that he called the bottom back in March.
Matt
charlie i think we should be happy with gains just need more discipline.
I totally agree with you on that one K.
can’t be done
also i sold skf for a loss then that beast turned on me. ayayay can you say crazy fugly recession bailouts. whatever. time to play video games and eat snacks. I hope george is still making some nice scalps
and matt i wasnt familiar with him but since i got no cable tv and couldnt see whitney i turned bloomberg tv instead. thanks for the info.
Happy to be not long.. happy with gains.. need more discipline ..
Great call, Matt – thanks for that
I do fear the pattern is becoming too obvious but this should not darken the day today.
That explains my absurd profits on a few C puts. I just got a few of them at some silly price of $30 a contract as a bit of a joke trade. I’ll hold on to those for a while longer. All I have to do is look at the share price of companies like: AIG, FNM, FRE, LEH. Well, I guess that last one doesn’t count.
So can we put a stop to the short-term the rally nonsense now that we had an over 8% drop to bring us back to reality?
i’m still down 34% this year thanks to a few september mistakes that cost me 10% of my whole portfolio each. AAPL, DDM and POT were 3 of the big screwups i did trying to catch a falling knife. now since then i’ve enjoyed the company and opinion of everyone here and am able to see things that others are not.
my portfolio went up 115% today. since I was 100% short since last Friday
Matt
Nice call on Meri-death taking the market down even more!
Congrats to the super bears here.
I was expecting a stiff correction, but nothing like the massacre we have seen.
this could be wave (5) already too. We did the min a b c on that last rally to satisfy (4). It was a zig zag and these are a b c patterns.
I’ll let you guy know what the EWI guy says tonight. although sometimes he is off
do you mean this friday? oh nvm. hey at least you made it back
i think i gained $250+ today in my 5k portfolio. initial 7.5k tho. for a student i think i am out pacing most peers.
The bears had some help from China today. In case you missed the story, China reported a record contraction in manufacturing, which almost certainly caused the commodities collapse.
Hi David, EWI has been somewhat better on the short term side so far this year but as far as wave counting on the main averages go, they have been lousy for most of the last few years as we all konw..that said, please do share what Hochberg says..I think this is still the start of wave B down of 4. We did satisfy three waves on that rally but that should be the wave A up of 4. The main question mark that leads me to believe we still have one more monster bear market rally after this drop is that the time guidelines for wave 4 of the larger C wave down have not been satisfied..we need to have more sideways and rally action for at least a few more weeks if this is in fact wave 4 up before the final wave 5 down, all counting as part of wave C down on the long term chart. The subjectiveness of EW is why it is only a secondary tool that i use more for reference on possibvle future paths of the market as EW labels usually are easier to read in hindsight. I do agree with the core premise of EW that markets are driven by the mood of the public which creates the news, not the other way around as all of us EW are aware. If you enjoy EW and are into it, may I suggest you check out David Waggoner at Minyanville, Ryan Henry at Wavespeak.com, and NeoWave as alternatives.
Look forward to your comment on EWI.
me. the day after Thanksgiving. you know “last Friday”
if this is going to be a five wave structure and this is wave 3, then wave three must go to at least 800
ok thanks. yes I agree that would be one short wave (4) timewise. I have mentioned this before
yum yum yum banks
http://www.stocktock.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/08_12_01banksnuked.png
Foster Wheeler’s CEO was just on Mad Money and Cramer asked him about their buy-back program. He said that the broker FWT works with tells them almost every day that there are hedge funds with large blocks for sale. So, that’s a direct piece of evidence that hedge funds are still liquidating.
Wow, I’ve been off meeting with people — this is a real bloodbath.
Matt, what are you seeing volume-wise?
I can believe it hedge funds are liquidating.
Investor: “I want out!”
Hedge Fund: “We don’t care! You can’t!”
What you think will happen in the next weeks? Angry investors singing the redemption song louder and louder!
HAHA dressguard so true.
ok, here is what the EWI guy (Hochberg) says. Between us, I think he is more clueless than I am. LOL
Wave (4) still top dog. Calling it into question because of the broad based selling today and credit spreads. Said Friday’s high was too short and too swift for a wave (4) high. [I agree too swift, but fourth waves are notorious for triangles and sideways action so I do not agree that it was too low] especially seeing the VIX highs and lows contracting here.
At this time I would like to share that I wish I could go through the TV screen and rip Kudlow’s head off. And that Robert R. in my opinion is a waste of earth space.
So according to him {back to the EWI guy] this is either the big B [down] of wave (4) or wave 5 (3) in an ending diagonal (falling wedge). he sees structural problems with this (3) count. the wave 5 (3) scenario would take SPX to a new low.
A decline below SPX 774 would move wave (4) down the list of counts and up the 5 (3) count. In other words, he’ll know once again once it is over. LOL. Well this does not make me money and momma needs a new pair or drawers.
Funny though for the VIX to hit the upper boundary line it has been bouncing off of SPX would go to 778. This is my calculation based on relative percents today between the two and on an assumption that these would remain constant if the VIX hit the upper line. (not saying it will happen this way, but this is the math.)
Trouble in China
Posted By:Larry Kudlow
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28002786
The real source of today’s stock market plunge is a collapse of China’s purchasing managers index
Matt, you are in good company!
Strange only that everybody went reddish but not the Chinese!
I wish the greedy bastards here would do something similar
http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=fF6lxILnRuE&eurl=http://www.japanprobe.com/?paged=4
Good morning Matt.
BKX fell 17.4%
Larry,
Yes, I noticed the BKX. I’m up 36% on the FAZ (triple short financials) that I bought Friday.
The Wall Street Journal has a story on reverse migration in China, just like you said would happen a couple of weeks ago. Nice call.
Matt
Any bets on what happens tomorrow premarket to GE???
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081201/ge_mover.html?.v=2
BKX. I’m learning Matt. I look at oil, but “it’s the financials stupid”. They are leading this thing down.
Brent Crude at 47.2 USD. WTI 48.5.
Yen 93.5. 118 vs Euro.
But futures up 1%. Some hedge funds are trying to keep it up to off-load in Asia and Europe?
Hi Randall, look at the analysts running behind the curve here. It will be an 18-month constant catch up for them.
look at the Australian cash rate. 4.25% from 5.20% seems like is bad.
I cant seem many good DATA coming this week. that doesn’t mean market will keep tanking
Brent Crude 46.50