On the morning of January 11th, I wrote:
“The SPX’s 200-month moving average is at 1156, which is also the top of the Box of Beer. That confluence should provide some sort of resistance.”
As it turned out, it was lethal resistance, and now another important moving average is coming up. The SPX made a brief bounce at its 20-week MA before falling through. Now it as approaching its 100-week MA, which is at 1060.38.
The charts are a horror scene without the slightest sign of even a fledgling bottoming pattern. If the market can’t hold inside the November 9th gap, where it is now, a trip down to the 100-week MA seems likely. If the bulls can’t circle the wagons there, then the next rung in hell is the November 6th gap at 1046.50.
If the market can’t stabilize on prospects for a positive jobs report on Friday, that would be a rather bearish omen.
Market Inferno, no?
Take a look at the French market, $CAC on the monthly. It has a GIANT MA pattern brewing.
year 2000 peak ~ 6750 (first peak of the M)
year 2003 trough ~ 2650
year 2007 peak ~ 6250 (second peak of the M)
year 2009 trough ~ 2650
year 2010 peak ~ 4000 ? (potential “A” peak)
A break of ~2650 to the downside would create a massive measured move downward. Inferno, indeed. (I only did a gestalt of the levels, didn’t cone in to look at exact numbers. General picture here is what’s important.)
Once a week I do a search on Google News for ‘Hyperinflation’.
A possible black swan came up. It is not on the radar screen of the mass media.
http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=050000&biid=2010012728068
There is a full moon. Does that mean up or down?
SDS not performing today….down 1.80% vs SPX up 0.8%. Arghhhh.
LOOKS like wave A down is near completion…i am ready to buy for wave B rally around 50% retrace…. then SCARY wave C down ….then on to NEW HIGHS
Inside day for most of the underlying. SPY starting to look bullish on the 15min. Intraday gap up remains to be filled.
SPY needs a booster to get up to the moon. It has bumped up against its 15min 36MA resistance.
God *&^% protective stops! The ISM shook me out of the SDS I bought at the open!!!! Arghhh.
STRING and GEORGE..i am going to buy some treasury 10 yr coupons as stocks rally in wave B ….then dump them when stocks crumble in wave C.. hopefully stock panic will send them into bonds again..it will work till it doesnt…lol
George, one should be short into the Full Moon and long into the new moon.
As such I have just sold my Shorts. But I keep 5% short for bragging rights in case we go down
Also buying gold tonight. Black Swan insurance.
Latest moon shot:
http://i46.tinypic.com/28sbq77.jpg
“it will work till it doesnt” You got that right!
Larry,
Thanks. I couldn’t remember. I have the moon in the appropriate place then.
BOUGHT a tiny amount of TLT @ 91.12
Eh,,, SPY doing a Humpty on the 15min. Bolderdash!
Could retest its 5min 36MA and bounce from there. All is not well in SPYville.
SPY entered the wellness program and is trying to overcome the 15min illness.
1105 upper boundary, 1050-55 target. Trend down.
Looks like an inverse H&S on the SPY 15min. May not mean much on that time frame.
SPY now resting on its 5min 36MA support.
Tale of the tape.
+111 triple triplet
Yep,,, on a chop suey day.
Market notables AAPL, GOOG and now AMZN showing some real wear and tear….unless the leaders start to reengage, the love fest since March 2009 is over. This is the wave up everybody was predicting and its Monday, what a surprise, what would be nasty is if we actually close red for the day, then watch out the rest of the week…
Larry – North Korea is a tinder-box for sure, but will economic collapse in NK have any bearing on the rest of the world? Maybe you are thinking they need to start or threaten a war to save them from their troubles?
I guess this is short-covering due to that peak SPY had on Friday. It’s been making some nice 1 and 5min waves.
EOM effect anyway which could last a couple more days.
I got my group to sell many of our positions but C they don’t expect it to fall much further so they wanna keep. I, mr president, will listed to the people and place my powers to good use.
Mr. Kresident, keep ‘em straight.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/S2ZM-7fBDBI/AAAAAAAAGFo/A_xFkAnubks/s1600-h/vix.png
Bull Flag on the VIX?
HAHA this would be sweet!!!
i gotta give credit where credit is due so here’s the entire link
http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2010/01/charts-worth-watching.html
just the VIX was my personal choice
K, with a bit of dyslexia you might read his name as traderswetie!!
haha!!!!
i subscribed to his blog for the free trial. Good stuff but i started school so I made sure it was temporary.
good things in life come for free they say .. not sure if that’s true for trading
ipad for george
http://www.howtogeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/cartoonspotprentsatire_appleiphoneipodtouchipadtabletmagnifyingglass.jpg
Not in my personal experience Sam. There’s always “some” dues to be paid to learn how to trade.
K,
No iPad for me.
No camera, no phone, no multi-tasking, AT&T – what were they thinking? I would have invented something smaller that would project an image onto something like a rolled up screen or a sheet of 8 1/2 x 11″ piece of paper. A netbook would be a better choice for me.
Yes, Randall, wag the dog. I don’t see the the people in charge in the rest of the world being overly concerned. They seem to be focus elsewhere.