Was Friday morning’s gap-up a bullish price probe, or a bearish exhaustion gap?
The Bearish Case – we got a fantastic upside surprise from the big retail-sales report Friday morning, but the market was not able to advance. If it can’t advance on incredibly good news, what’s it going to take? The market’s reaction to the news was definitely not bullish.
The Bullish Case – On Friday night, all four commentators on the McLaughlin Group said that they expected a double-dip recession, and all the traders on Fast Money were bearish. I was a bit startled by all the negativity, and the market almost always rallies in the face of such sentiment.
A possible resolution for this setup is that the market will pull back a bit, sentiment will get super-bearish very quickly, everyone will fall into the bear trap, and then get short-squeezed out as the market rockets up to the TARP gap in SPX 1200 country.
I got a bunch of new posts on my page you might find of interest.
Tried posting link here but my whole comment is somewhere in cyberspace of maybe am no longer allowed to post links.
Anyways click on my “K” name above if you’re interested.
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 81.28 -0.26 -0.32
Natural Gas 4.441 -0.025 -0.56
Corn 364.25 -1.00 -0.27
Soybeans 925.5 -5.0 -0.54
30yr Bond 117.0625 +0.1250 +0.11
10yr Note 116.796875 +0.015625 +0.01
NY Gold 1106.8 +5.1 +0.46
NY Silver 17.085 +0.037 +0.22
Emini S&P 1148.00 -3.25 -0.28
Emini Nasdaq 1921.75 -5.00 -0.26
Emini Dow 10611 -24 -0.23
Futes should be green in an hour,its Monday anyway
Thanks After. Hmmm, commodities down along with the market.
Getting closer to the blue moon. With this “V” shaped reversal, anything can happen from here-on-out with respect to future direction.
phil says:
March 14, 2010 at 3:29 pm
MATT…isnt this your updpated chart?http://www.websterscommentaries.com/
Who says were down????
Phil,
I’m still following the “ides of March” which began today. That may trump the Monday up-tick phenomenon.
george..did u read hadik i sent you ..insiide track?????
GEORGE..we could be headed down fast..MAX PAIN 105 SPY and 45 QQQQ
George
My SD charts aren’t updating, are yours? Price is but candles and indicators are not.
String
Phil, yes, I read that. Thanks
Stringm, SD charts working fine.
105 SPY, that would be a big drop. OPEX this week, yeah, I forgot.
MATT>>>>>>>>>>>>>>UPDATED ( 8:12 post)
PSY 15min MACD down to its zero line. Look out!
Stringm,
Sometimes I have to boot my router to clear things up. If you haven’t done that lately, may help.
Somebody taking a big bite out of AAPL.
1050 SPY ?????
George
I did that, and I have about figured out it must be my ISP with problems.
At least I am getting prices.
String
Marty,
1050 SPY or SPX? If it’s SPY, I want some of that action for sure!
Stringm,
Still, if you’re getting prices and not the candles, that doesn’t make sense.
George
The candles will update, but they are 3-5 minutes behind. It must be a bandwidth thing with my ISP. I have booted my system, router, ISP modem, the works. I started using my laptop that just has a skeleton of symbols and charts, and things are improving.
String
Looks like the bottom of that channel is holding up George. Nice call Matt.
String, I don’t have the directional indicator you pointed out, so I can’t set up the chart you talked about on StreetSmart. I’ll have to look at the Pro version, it might be in there.
Off to work. Good trading to all.
Stringm,
Crazy stuff. It’s not an exact science, this Internet thing.
SPX ~1226 is the Fib 61.8% retracement.
Well, I’m biting my tongue today with regards to trading. My bread came out fine. I used unbleached flour. Nothing like breaking bread with family and friends.
1150 got hit, now the expected retreat. Support 1120-30, s-l and fireworks over 1150. bias up.
On the MOO/DOO 30min chart I have a 20ma with 50ma. They have pinched together but not crossed to the downside yet. They’ll either cross down or the 20 will bounce off the 50 for another move up.
SPY now up against its 15min 36MA resistance. That’s probably some sort of FIB area but I haven’t checked that.
Just checked the SPY 15min 36MA line, indeed it is the 61.8FIB retracement – on the nose.
SPY 50%FIB is 115.30.
That first one should have been 38.2%FIB. 61.8%FIB is 115.46.
SPY got to the 61.8% Fib. on the 15min. That was good enough for me.
George, sorry about that fly mixup, i guess by now you know i meant the blog…are you at all close to backing up any vehicles at all on any inverses at all ?
thx
George
The skunk I had is R.I.P. as of this morning! Picture of the services!
String
http://i42.tinypic.com/fvdbuq.jpg
After,
I went heavy this AM on SRS but sold out when it reversed. Then I got UYG for an intraday swing. I didn’t think SRS was going to reverse but I thought it would at least make a try.
Some of the inverse is beginning to show signs of digging out. How far, I don’t know.
Looking at the indexes’ long-range charts, they have the ‘makings’ of a continued rally with the requisite dip here and there.
SPY price filled the MOO gap and is now resting on top. While this latest move has gone on quite a while, that doesn’t mean anything. I recall this type of action years ago and thought it would never end.
http://i39.tinypic.com/2euisrd.jpg
Here’s my chart of SDS. It looks like it is ‘building a bottom’, i.e., consolidating. This could fail, but with all of the open gaps on SDS – and one is a daily – I believe it will fill those before any substantial move higher.
http://i40.tinypic.com/21eui6w.jpg
First, another topping action, then gap-fill down below, followed by a continued move up. Normally, I’d put a fundamental statement in here like: There’s just too much money coming into the market right now for it to let up barring any significant news. But I won’t this time because I don’t have a clue.
Technically speaking however, everyone says the market is ‘toppy’; I’d have to say ‘relative to what?’ Certainly isn’t toppy compared to last year.
The advantage of this type of move down on the inverse is its degree. Had it been wishy-washy and not well defined, that would be more of a trending action. Rather, the sharp move it has had is more reactionary. Those end up with reactions to the opposite direction.
That being said, Back in 2000-era, some of those moves up hung on for a longer than expected time.
I’ll follow the longer-term MACD and stochastic for direction and the weekly will need to perk up before I back up the truck.
Stringm,
That’s FUNNY!
You gave him flowers and he provides the fertilizer. My, you ARE efficient. That’s the first Organic Skunk I’ve seen.
Well done!
Tooth
You asked how I decide to sell. First thing is you have to not listen to me. I am just throwing things out. I will say that I am better at knowing what should be done than doing it. Once you get Pro set up you will want to look at the weekly chart of INTC as the trend chart. George’s 36MA works real well. If price on the weekly is above it and it is moving up, it gives you more confidence in buying a daily chart dip. Not a drop of one day, but a good pullback.
I get ansty when the Fast STO gets up over 80 on the daily. Thing is though real strong trends develop when it is up there. Once Slow STO gets over 80 I am really antsy. I also look at what is ahead as resistance. For instance the major moving averages like Georges 36MA. Since I like to sell ITM call options, I can sell at some of these resistance areas. If it pulls back but looks like it is going to turn back up, I might buy the call back and let it go again. There is no science here on my part, because it all blows up at times. A Fast STO crossing down the Slow STO is sure a warning sign. You will just have to stare at a lot of charts until you see what your plan will be. If you are stupid like me you will see your plan, but not do it a lot of times.
The DM indicator is real handy for me. There are systems based just on it alone. A cross up of +DI over -DI should be confirmed according to those systems. By that I mean the high of the bar during the crossing needs to be exceed on subsequent bars.
Good luck, and remember take everything I say with a shaker of salt, not a grain
String
Thanks String. I’m still going to stay away. Thanks for the try though. Although, I did have an inkling to “buy the dip” at 1141 this AM on my way out the door, but that would have cursed the reversal into a death spiral (or at least, a retest of 1140 to shake me out). Time to save up my $$$ and enjoy the fruits of my labors rather than trade them. I’m a good investor, I’m a lousy trader. Just being honest with myself, that’s all.
STRING….TLT @ 90.75…..now above tough 4 th wave of lesser degree resistance around 90.50….TARGET now 91.20…..BACKING UP TRUCK now …of course you know what kind of truck it is dont you????