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Mark-to-market accounting will probably be suspended on Thursday. Banks will write-up assets, but that may make them more reluctant to sell their toxic assets into Timmy’s PPIP. Bloomberg story here.
phil:
I haven’t had you bite on my 720 to 860 call – all by Wednesday afternoon. You’re too wise for that I know but I know you like to make good guesses at where we may go. Matt’s picked some decent spots – but seems a tad bullish to me – lol.
mitch
Yerk:
How’s the sentiment there? You suggested one time that Opal hitting the skids would be quite detrimental. Still the case?
Somebody posted last week or the week before a day count proposing McLaren would turn bearish. His newest update isn’t bearish as the count turned bullish, of interest is he considers a pullback over the next days as bullish.
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/206/1/March-27-2009-CNBC-SQUAWKBOX-EUROPE/Page1.html
bought more ddm 23.11 now
My SRS “trade” is finally in the black, I am out at 60, don’t want to fall in love with the downside here…(even though there is alot to love…)
phil:
I missed the xdate on the ddm but I’m tempted to go there too. The stagnation makes me want the divvy.
mkb….exactly….4% ddm dividend……whats your money market rate…… 0.15%????….. if cap gains appear magically…we take them….lol
I see we are retesting the Geithner Gap one more time with another gap
looks like we go a little lower soon…but we will have important info when we see what this wave down looks like….looks like it is going to be a 5 wave down from the top….but that doesnt help because it could be the c wave of a flat correction…..key levels are overlap of spx 776…..and breach of spx 766 ….also note ….. upward acceleration in 3 of 3 up much less likely now that 791 is now broken below
tnx gapped down creating a 3 day island reversal….now at 2.685% …can stock decline and fed buying drive it down to test recent lows at 2.469?? …buy big ben …buy!!
matt….see my 10:18 post….approx 767 and 775 were both separate monthly lows in 2002….im sure you have the exact numbers….also approx 786 ..where we are now … was a monthly low in 2003….i believe holding 767 is the key
Take this Mr. McBroon in the face of a Dumferline bailout:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs
My ancestors roll.
Great write-up yesterday Matt
eurusd 1.31 is key, potential for a rebound here. depends on ecb action on Thursday – trichet is said to be opposing qe. spx decoupled a bit last week but the correlation seems to be reestablished.
Short since early this morning…annoyed that I didn’t pull the trigger at the close on Friday, oh well. If we close at/near the low of the day I will let this go overnight. I also have a very tight stop…hoping for one of those grind it out days.
this one is from Kenny… 779 as support
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SdEGiDqV3SI/AAAAAAAAAZE/5Xy1soUj5-o/s1600-h/The+black+line..png
SPY is trying to make a falling wedge on its 5-minute chart. If new lows aren’t made soon, we will probably get a bounce. SPY’s slow stochastic is also oversold on the 60-minute chart.
Ask and ye shall receive, Matt.
Anyone going long at 779 – 780, we are there now?
The market has been generally plummeting all day, except for a technical support point, I don’t see what could change things for today…unless the PPT gets into gear…
Bad news on the Chrysler/Fiat deal just knocked the market through 780.
There is no vol on the SPY, not sure how to interpret that. But SPX has put in lower lows and lower highs, so I am guessing we don’t bounce, at least today.
If it takes out 785, I may close a short and start new on Tuesday
Eli: Agreed on the volume. Keep in mind short sellers were just bent over a barrel. Since we aren’t going down on high volume, I would guess that we just have a lack of buyers as opposed to panic selling. Either way, they can’t claim this one is short sellers.
This looks like the wedge pop now. The wedge wasn’t very tall, so maybe it can get back up to the resistance around 791.
Re: shortsellers
My take was that less advanced shortsellers got smoked!! Concurrently, less advanced longs got rolled but not quite as bad. Whose young get eatin -baby longs or shorty toddlers that got dropped from the crib?
Sure are some goofy price swings going on right now on SPY…
Mark to Fantasy (Market) will drive market much higher for a few weeks – wouldn’t it?
Bulls can claim victory with EOD rally, Kenny’s support held, I can already hear how the last two days drop of about 400 Dow points will be called a normal pullback in a continuing bear market rally…
Did Obama really say the FDIC is going to back auto warranties when GM/F collapse? FDIC for your car – wow, now I have heard everything…
armagedon:
Treasury is currently performing due diligence on the top 20 banks (banks of 100b or more). Whole loans will be purchased alongside Treasury by private investors. Securities likewise -just with Fed money. Marks are nigh. The great flush is just around the corner. The plumbing has been probed – we’ll see who makes it. Mark to market or mark to model is old logic now that PPIP is up and running.
Thursday will be d-day – ecb to tank or to boost the dollar. Also, the resource recovery play is intermingled with the dollar…
MS paper today says 850 should be the top valuation-wise.
Barclays passed the UK stress test. Barclays was the first bank I shorted last year for very obvious reasons…
But what the heck, people are buying DRYS calls – covenants, that’s bullish stuff
Hi Yerk:
Did regulators assume the cash for ishares as capital?
MKB – afaik ishares are fully invested, eg client money is used to buy underlyings. Cash or whatever other assets ishares has will be consolidated into the parent’s balance sheet.
as history rhymes:
“The London Economic Conference was a meeting that took place between representatives of 66 nations in the June 1933. Held at London’s Geological Museum, the purpose was to attack global depression, revive international trade, and stabilize international currencies.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Economic_Conference
Stock markets had bottomed in March and rallied then until July, so the timing is off this year. And will we get a rally until July – after the meeting?