Monday’s Trading – 5/3/2010

Oil-Bomba
Just a few weeks after the President announces more off-shore drilling, an oil rig blows up? What a lucky break for Big Oil and OPEC. This incident will slow the President’s progress toward tapping the USA’s energy resources and help to keep oil prices nice and high. How fortuitous. Somebody needs to write a conspiracy theory about this ASAP.

67 Responses to “Monday’s Trading – 5/3/2010”

  1. BankRaped says:

    There is a bigger conspiracy here, its about pushing Cap & Trade. Now they get 2 birds with one stone. No drilling and Cap & Trade. How nice…..

  2. hank says:

    I wonder how hard JNJ will be hit by the Mcneil recall?
    http://www.mcneilproductrecall.com/index.jhtml

  3. after says:

    Futures Prices, nas up 9.50, i’m wondering if these will hold…
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 86.45 +0.30 +0.35
    Natural Gas 3.948 +0.028 +0.71
    Corn 375.25 +7.00 +1.86
    Soybeans 999 +4 +0.40
    30yr Bond 118.68750 -0.37500 -0.32
    10yr Note 117.90625 +0.46875 +0.40
    NY Gold 1183.4 +2.7 +0.23
    NY Silver 18.750 +0.111 +0.59
    Emini S&P 1189.00 +5.50 +0.46
    Emini Nasdaq 2008.00 +9.50 +0.47
    Emini Dow 10997 +37 +0.34

  4. phil says:

    GEORGE……sold SCHX in pre market that i bought fri as the bell was ringing……made 13c profit….hasta!

  5. George says:

    After,

    Good question about the market holding the futes’ rise. From what I calculate, this action would put price up toward the 15min 36MA where there would be resistance and a possible 9/36/15 to the upside.

  6. George says:

    Phil,

    Nice to be able to sell pre-, post-market. I really need to get on that bandwagon.

  7. 'K says:

    George,
    Don’t spread too thin :)

  8. phil says:

    G..spy bid 119.33 now …right @ 13 ma on 15 min chart

  9. phil says:

    G..the high in pre market was 119.49 ..right @ the 3pm friday peak

  10. phil says:

    G..i am not using the 9 ma any more ..using 13 18 36 now…13 seems very good on 15 min

  11. phil says:

    STRING….bought some IEF @ 90.18…looking for 90.55

  12. after says:

    ditched SCC at small profit…hlding hqd.to at profit and srs currently in the red

  13. after says:

    sold hqd.to 10.55 and 10.56
    might reenter a bit lower…
    holding SRS, order to sell @ 25.05

  14. Joan says:

    Good Morning Everyone,
    Just a heads up to watch the eur/usd.

  15. after says:

    trying to get back hqd.to if/when @ 10.50
    i think i may have been a bit too hasty, was still in the green, oh well, lets see —

  16. phil says:

    DOLLAR RALLY……STOCK RALLY..not what everyone thought eh??

  17. phil says:

    dollar rally …gold rally…..looking to sell all remaning gold on further spike up ….also CEF near 15.40 peak….( fund holds gold and silver)

  18. scotty says:

    Stocks look weak

  19. Mitch says:

    scotty,

    True, but there might be something weaker.

  20. phil says:

    G….are you still thinking of buying gold now ????

  21. Mitch says:

    XOM can’t break a 50% retrace from 11-25-09. Looks like XOMs 61.8 at 72.01 will have to wait – XOM is sick.

  22. phil says:

    MATT…..probably should not have put up 11:03 post even tho is was in a email to me he took it from his publication…please take it down…thanks phil

  23. after says:

    back with hqd.to 10.53 couldn’t wait !

  24. George says:

    Phil,

    UUP got a daily buy at 23.60. TLT got a daily buy ~89.00. GLD got a daily buy at 109.00.

    SPY has not crossed its daily 36MA with a negative MACD so all bets are off until that happens. What’s interesting is that the inverse got a daily buy while the underlying got a sell, but the underlying has the consolidation pattern morphing into this:

    http://i41.tinypic.com/n71y7d.jpg

  25. George says:

    SPY now bumping up against its 15min 36MA resistance.

  26. George says:

    I’m distracted somewhat today trying to learn TOS. It’s a different animal. I’m getting too old to learn new stuff. :)

  27. George says:

    Phil,

    I didn’t answer your question. Yes, I have gold – fool’s gold – GLD. Also USO although I think I’ll get out when it hits that double top. Also, I’ll start trading sisters TLT/TBT. I’m adding this pair to my radar with what should be coming down the road with rates.

  28. phil says:

    G…you may want to trade tlt/tbf…..they are inverse….TBT is double short

  29. George says:

    Phil,

    Thanks. I didn’t know that.

  30. phil says:

    G>>> i am loooking for another point of rally in the bonds at least…a swoosh down in stocks may do it…then sell bonds ..buy stocks

  31. George says:

    Phil,

    There could be anticipation of the 81 Fib area at SPX 1227 of a turn.

    I’m also looking at EUO to take advangtage of the Euro crisis if it unfolds.

  32. George says:

    Oh, no doubt SPX is going to 1227: Merely how and when. Then what happes at that point.

  33. George says:

    Thus far, today is an ‘inside day’ chart pattern. Which means nothing has happened since Friday. A break from that would be nice – either way.

  34. phil says:

    G….euo looks a lot like the dollar or UUP….euro is 60% (i think) of dollar index

  35. phil says:

    G….about gold…clock is ticking …..commercials are getting heavily short again just like they did at the last top

  36. phil says:

    G >>i am not shorting gold … just selling what i have into this spike

  37. phil says:

    G>>>>>from last wed….3 waves up then 3 down now 3up sofar…looking like a triangle

  38. 2thfixr says:

    Top of the triangle. MOment of truth. ABCD with E to come (down from here) **OR** are we seeing ABC and this is wave 1, with wave 2 to come **OR** are we in a wave 3 heading up?

  39. George says:

    2thfixr,

    What time frame are you looking at?

  40. 2thfixr says:

    15 min SPX over the last week. We just hit the top trend line, hit the bottom trend line Friday PM (near 1181). The E leg (or wave 2) will be a day, then up and out. But if we break higher now, that is a valid EW count as well.

  41. 2thfixr says:

    G, they could just leave it right here until 4 pm, and then gap up again overnight to overcome resistance of this trendline AND the 1210 area in one fell swoop. Who knows….. 2 of three scenarios call for down from here (mildly, just a retrace from the lows of last Friday),

  42. 2thfixr says:

    if you believe in IBD’s cup with handle, you could make the argument that we are placing a handle on the cup formed over the last few days. Handles tend to slope downward gently. Then a breakout on VOLUME occurs.

  43. 2thfixr says:

    G adn Phil, grabbed some SDS at $29 and expect to ride it back down to a 50 cent profit give or take. That should be the final leg of the triangle, or a wave 2 retrace.

  44. after says:

    back with srs @ 24.21 and scc @ 27.11

  45. scotty says:

    R we going to see some short covering into the close? Phil you see a pullback tomorrow 1192-1195??

  46. George says:

    2thfixr,

    Thanks. The 15min is the directional time frame for me. SRS just completed “cycling” its MACD on the 15min so looking for a push up here on that one.

  47. 2thfixr says:

    yup, hug some inverse everyone for a short, but profitable ride. I’ve got my fibs figured out and selling into those will be my goal. Playing the inverse is not about greed, just trying to grab some quick cash and run.

  48. 2thfixr says:

    SDS just had a 9/36 5-min cross up. Yes!

  49. 2thfixr says:

    Well, SDS never reached the FIB I was looking for, so I’ll hold until tomorrow looking for that level. Hopefully, I’ll wake up to a nice gap down and pull a Phil and sell into the pre-market to capture some of the profit I’m expecting. Since I’m long SSO calls, I’m actually just hedged with my SDS ETF vs the SSO calls. Bring on the E leg of the triangle please…

    Have a great night everyone.

  50. K says:

    Being persistent does the job. Guess who will be working close to the Man now ?

    phew. time to book a vacation to greece.

  51. Mitch says:

    K,

    Yes! Greece will do.

  52. scotty says:

    2 we should hit 1210 before a pullback

  53. 2thfixr says:

    K, working with Lloyd at Golden Slacks? helicopter Ben? Little timmy? The Big O himself?

    Scotty, if we hit 1210, EW says up, up and away as 1209.36 will be violated. ii of 3 will head down to reload, but alt counts are blown away. I’ll be looking for that confirmation tomorrow!

  54. K says:

    I don’t like wearing slacks but it will be my client. maybe i can hedge and show karma? haha

  55. after says:

    Futures Prices
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 86.06 -0.13 -0.15
    Natural Gas 3.997 -0.003 -0.07
    Corn 371.50 -3.75 -1.01
    Soybeans 986.5 -12.5 -1.27
    30yr Bond 118.90625 +0.18750 +0.16
    10yr Note 117.484375 -0.421875 -0.36
    NY Gold 1179.8 -3.5 -0.30
    NY Silver 18.72 -0.12 -0.64
    Emini S&P 1198.25 -0.25 -0.02
    Emini Nasdaq 2025.75 -1.25 -0.06
    Emini Dow 11099 -3 -0.03

  56. after says:

    Futures Prices, some slippage, saw s&p down 6 per cnbc just now…
    Market Last Change %
    Crude Oil 85.27 -0.92 -1.07
    Natural Gas 3.984 -0.016 -0.40
    Corn 371.50 -3.75 -1.01
    Soybeans 986.5 -12.5 -1.27
    30yr Bond 119.18750 +0.46875 +0.39
    10yr Note 117.484375 -0.421875 -0.36
    NY Gold 1183.1 -0.2 -0.02
    NY Silver 18.735 -0.105 -0.56
    Emini S&P 1191.50 -7.00 -0.58
    Emini Nasdaq 2016.25 -10.75 -0.53
    Emini Dow 11051 -51 -0.46

  57. George says:

    After,

    S&P down 6%? WOW, what gives? I want 61.8%! I’ve been robbed (mentally).

  58. 'K says:

    George,
    Down 8.5 points not 6% hehe I wish! I’d be rich with the bets I have

  59. George says:

    I’z gonna say… :)

  60. George says:

    Oil-Bomba – HOOT!

    Oil’s well that ends well.

    It is now almost against the law to criticize the government.

  61. George says:

    If I tweet and I can fly would that make me a tweety bird?

    …just askin’…

  62. 2thfixr says:

    Congrats K. Enjoy the brief look inside the “private” world of finance. Just never forget where you came from, okay?

    Yes George, down nearly 10 points when I woke up. Then it is rebounding from there. 10 points down, 4 to 6 points up, then 16 down to hit the bottom of the triangle. Where she goes from there is only known at the GS trading desk–and they will already have their positions in place before you take yours. :-)

    My assistant is out of the office again today, so I’ll try to stay in contact when I can. Internet is spotty there. Long story. Trade well.

  63. George says:

    2thfixr,

    Here’s a 15min SPY chart. I marked it according to your count of ABCD. See if this is what you are describing.

    Thanks

    http://i40.tinypic.com/2rr56w4.jpg

  64. 'K says:

    If birds could tweet. :)

  65. George says:

    K,

    You’re a free bird now. Rubbing wings with the insiders and such. You have my address to send the inside tips. :D

  66. 2thfixr says:

    That is it George. And we are at the 1st leg down on E at the open. Small bounce up (4 to 6 points) at some point, and then down to the bottom. That is my trading prediction for the day. Close will be near 1190 to keep us all guessing for tomorrow.

    Pulled a Phil and sold 1/2 my SDS in the premarket at the 62% Fib of $29.58 for a tidy 60 cent profit. Still holding half to reach the bottom of the triangle. Hope to add on the move up that I described.