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Found this link and it looks interesting, but doesn’t help me much. What do y’all think?
http://www.edu-tech.co.za/eduvideos/may2009/18.5.2009/18.5.2009.htm
if we break below 925 at anytime today and hold I would consider this thing over with.
String,
Please consider the following 3 steps to start
your journey to a 6 figure income: 1) google
…traders-talk.com…click on New Market Analysis
Area and read “McMillan Market Commentary.”
Larry usually posts on Thursday and gives you
a concise overview of the market, charts, and
buy/sell signals. 2) Visit Larry’s site and sign-up
for a 3 month trial to the “Options Strategist”
for $29.00. If you take the trial, you do not need
to visit traders-talk. 3) Attend one of Larry’s
seminar’s. Gives you the opportunity to pick
the brains of some of the top traders.
If you do not take the trial, be sure to visit
traders-talk weekly. Also suggest you do not
read all of the posts on traders-talk in the
new market analysis area…it will confuse you
at this point in time.
You are not stupid. If a girl who almost flunked
high school can make a 6 figure income;so, can
you.
Best of everything.
Julie, Celente is stronger on the bearish side, isn’t he? As we are moving from a financial into an institutional crisis things have the potential to get very tricky. The powers that are know very well what’s going on – and they want to win the war like they claim to have won 2000ff. I see them winning a smaller battle now, but not the war and they didn’t win 2000. Moving from a financial to an institutional crisis will effect the markets. The unabated push for centralization and control makes this problem even more pressing. If gold then buy small coins – and don’t let them get confiscated…
Matt, I really like the names of the boxes. Banks need a miracle to move higher, but miracles are not in short supply these days.
GM going belly up and everybody cheering. Funny. More market share in an overall smaller market for the good carmakers. This is real capitalism.
Julie
Thanks for the info I will check it out. I have Larry’s book on options. Hard read for me but a lot of good info. The greeks get me though. If I could generate 80K, I could give half to the church and still be in fat city. I have more money now than I can drink up, but I would like to give the kids some.
String
Yerk,
Thanks. Celente and my Grandfather are on
the same side…bearish. Sounds like you
agree with my Grandfather…we should
pump our profits into gold…coins.
Hope you have a great trading day.
String,
Larry’s 3 month trial is the best deal we
know about…gives you a ton of info
plus hotline info. Don’t let all the info
overload you…one small step at a time…
and don’t let your children know when
you are making a 6 figure income unless
you have plenty of room for them to
live with you.
Have a great day.
Julie
Points to ponder (Greek sophism):
1. Cash out now (whilst your buck still has a rack)
2. Cash out later (more risk premium -potential to bring more $ to the table – you’ll need more)
3. Stay in (buying reflation and capitalizing on inflation – buy rubber bands)
4. Buy commodities (hedge against likeminded monkeys causing a boost to your inputs. If there is a recovery there’s a dual win here, which could have been the same dual logic for shorting treasuries – mountains of new originations and a recovery)
5. Keep working because you are not the center of the world (although you might think so).
Btw:
Gold is one too many conversions from a cheeseburger & freedom fries (Julie?).
MKB you do miss the most lucrative #6, though getting in a suitable position is not that easy:
http://www.alternet.org/story/140327/?page=entire
Institutional crisis.
TNX doing its gyrations. Up +1.77.
On January 6th, the high was 943.85, but the close was 934.70. So, if the SPX were to close right here, it would be a major milestone.
Breaking out of a 50 point range means another 50 point move. That would be 930+50=980, though perhaps not all in one day…
If there is a fly in the ointment today, it is the XLF which does not have a new rally high yet.
Matt,
Are you calling for a blow-off top???
Yerk:
Head of Economic Council on the Board of a company pushing “Revolution Money.” I digress.
SKF readying for a move up to some degree.
Julie,
No. I spent the weekend writing TradeStation code, so I didn’t study my charts, and I’m not up-to-speed on my big-picture analysis. I’m just making observations as I go along today.
Matt
SPY broke out over the horizontal channel. Is it a good break, or a bad break… remains to be seen.
Matt,
Dang, you’re a coder too? Like Stringm.
Matt,
Thanks. Hope things went well with your coding.
Julie
Stringm,
I haven’t forgotten about the autotrading rules. Still working.
George,
Yes, I have a bachelors degree in Computer Science, and decades of experience.
Matt
First-hour volume in SPY was the strongest since April 2nd.
TradeStation has the McClellan Oscillator at 127.34 right now. That is still below the overbought level. If the market wants to take out 944 today, it has room on the MacOS to do so.
Matt
You don’t have any trouble at all in converting the scripts I send George into Trade Station do you? You can see what they doing right?
String
Matt,
On exhaustion moves like to see at least
a 25% increase in volume. Does that
sound right to you?
Julie
Stringm,
Yes. SD code is pretty easy to read.
Matt
Julie,
I haven’t studied exhaustion moves in detail, so I will take your word for it.
Matt
TradeStation has the final floor-trader resistance level (R3) at 947.16 today.
Institutional buying came back on Friday. Why should they be exhausted today?
Matt,
Never take my word…only Gods.
Julie
TBT is rallying yet again. It is making a 9/36/15 cross-up right now.
“Never take my word…only Gods.”
Amen to that. Especially during “senior moments” where it’s easy to flub something.
Matt
Does TS have backtesting capabilities? Does TS have an event capture method? For example can a MA cross on a one time frame, say the 60 minute, be the trigger and then start testing the 5 minute. SD does not have a good way that I have found. I can test for it happening 1,2,3,4 bars back, but I can’t tell what bar the cross occurred on. I can, but it takes a ton of test lines which is a pain.
String
Wow, Matt,
Computer Science degree + that much experience should put you in the drivers seat.
Stringm must have a technical background too?
Yerk,
I know you read Bill McLaren’s report from
time-to-time. He says the classic exhaustion
move is 4 big up days with at least a 25%
increase in volume. Today is day 3 in the
up day’s…don’t know about volume yet.
Exhaustion moves to a top or bottom must
be quick…big moves each day.
But as my Grandfather always tell us…”if
it’s obvious, it’s wrong.”
Julie
$trin 3 DMA has moved to overbought…
…10 DMA has moved to neutral.
The M/E effect or trading scheme, is to buy 2 days before M/E and sell 3 or 4 days after M/E. We still have a couple more days to go. In previous years, that was always profitable, often in the 30-40% range. I haven’t kept up with that so I’m not sure what the stats are now.
Also, everyone that thinks they are missing a ride to the moon are piling on. This bus doesn’t go anywhere unless it is loaded. When it’s over-loaded, it crashes.
George,
I like the over-loaded bus analogy.
Julie
Julie,
Tks
BTW, do you trade long-term? Cycles? And do you have draw-downs with your trading method?
Thanks
Julie,
the will of the shorts must be broken. Avoiding Celente is only feasible by creating a positive mood.
[Caveat: Never trust people following well-founded conspiracy theories]
George – pardon, what is M/E?
Yerk,
Sorry, M/E = Month End.
George,
We trade the intermediate term trend (SPX 20 DMA)
using futures. We trade short term corrections using
options…we like the DJX options…OEX and SPX options
have become overpriced. We maintain a margin of
twice what we need…try to place our stops to avoid
major damage to our margin. We also use stops on
options in case we are wrong about the correction.
You play the odds, but you can never be right every
time, and that is why we allow for a drawdown in our
margin, but are still able to play the game. For a
person just starting to trade futures, we think
they should start with the mini DOW or mini S&P
and work their way up.
Hope that answers your question.
Julie
George, thanks. From what I read, there seem to be some places left in the bus which has gapped out of the station…
George,
Note that the SPX 20 EMA is lagging the
SPX 20 DMA…not a sign of a healthy
market.
Julie
String,
I don’t know yet. I’m still learning TradeStation, though it strikes me as a pretty impressive programming language so far.
Matt
Julie,
Yes, that is an excellent description. You folks are truly professionals using futures and options.
I am looking for different trading methods. This is going to sound crazy, but I believe if I had a method where I had reasonable draw-downs, I’d actually make more profit. I did some research on that over the weekend using SKF with 9/36/15 and I was amazed at the results. Each month this year had unprofitable trades using this scheme, but overall the months ended up with a nice profit. I’m going to apply that to other stocks and see how they come out.
I need to learn to give up my control of trades and let the numbers do the walking. I did that in the past and it worked out well. Now, I think about it too much, that I have to be setting here watching every squiggle. I’ve put myself into a position where I HAVE to do that due to my trading time frame and scalps.
I’m not complaining. I luv it, but I need to find a way to put more of my funds to work simultaneously without constant vigilance. Let them sit and hatch so-to-speak.
Besides, I need more time for cooking and cleaning.
Thanks
Yerk,
Those seats are getting filled quickly. Soon there will be folks hanging off the sides of the bus… until the next bump.
George,
Time for cooking is okay, but give up the
time for cleaning. It took a lot of effort
to work-up to futures. But we think they
give you leverage…biggest return. Options
are next. Since we don’t trade stocks, we
could be wrong. But we think trading stocks
has more risk than index futures or options.
One little piece of bad news can sink a stock
quickly.
If you change your trading style…backtest
and paper trade it first.
Good luck.
Julie
Julie,
“…but give up the time for cleaning.” I LIKE THAT.
Huh, I thought it was the other way around – that futures and options were more risky.
I learn something every day.
Thanks
Yerk,
Remember a short time ago we were wondering about the timing of the GS offering? I know you read ZH, and this may explain why: that offering was only the first.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-says-to-expect-another-200.html
INDU 200 DMA 8765. Getting close.
George,
Bad news about one stock in an index will
not sink it…but it will sink the stock.
…never take my word…only God’s.
Julie
JG,
From that article: “GS = Government Sachs”. How funny.
SPY last gasp of stratosphere air?
I’m using Renko charts on SSO. The only problem with them is they can change signals on a bar sometimes. They don’t follow the exact price. Instead, they eliminate time and paint direction.
Yerk,
We put-in a trailing stop and moved our
target to 965…our exhaustion guess
and end of the line for the bus.
Julie
junglegirl,
I remember your call well. The article links nicely with the one about Lear earlier today. +10% up on bankruptcy filing. This market is still dislocated and shorts are to be squeezed. Too bad, all the ones which did their homework and went after the bad company have to take the losses. Crowded trade in a market inflated by government intervention. Unsustainable, but still not over.
Julie,
George,
Nice call on SPY back here. It had been rising in a bearish wedge, so it was due for some sort of spill.
Matt
Yerk,
If(?) this wave takes the same time
as the prior one, we should look
for a top June 4th. And if we get
a top then, I owe Paula $100.00.
Julie
Wow, big upside spike on SDS 1min Scottrader chart all the way to $55.80.
That SDS spike is on SD also to $55.80, currently at $53.30.
Yerk,
Does your bus have government plates?
SPX weekly 50 DMA sits at 978. That could resist the weeds. Check out intermediate (2) of P1, and also check out the action circa 1998-2003. Interesting.
The above validates Matt’s post at 10:13 shooting for 980.
The trendline from 741 to 804 would put 980 in play the middle of this month.
Yep, buy them dips. The dippier the dip the better.
Let’s call it the 9th to the 17, or so, depending on exactly how you draw your line (different lows from which to choose after teh 804).
Wow, I’m quite the little blog hog here. Sorry.
GS-plates
Ok, now that I see some of you are leaning the “continuing trend” way I can comment about further evidence that way without feeling as if I’ve added to the hype. If one compares consumer staples with consumer discretionary one finds that although both are up CD is starting to pull away. Brett Steenbarger compares XLP (CS) with XLY (CD) and uses this as a tell for peaks and valleys. When the ratio is the lowest, growth is in order. As the two blow away from one another you get your tops and bottoms.
The two etfs were nearly even Friday but XLY is pulling away today.
Mitch
Junglegirl,
Never apologize for good posts.
Julie
Yerk,
Mr. banker…how does Fiat buy Chrysler
without putting up any cash?
julie
Someone is buying GM stock.
XLF rolling over, and taking the market down with it?
SKF is acting like a red flag for this market. Stocks like GS seem to be exhausted. Market seems to want to roll over IMO.. maybe just for a retrace.. but I wonder if today could be a blow off top.
Will be interesting to see what happens when 3:30 pm hits.
Lovely,
My 941 target got reached so come on head down Mrs. Market.
I will help you down the stairs.
when 3:30 hits we will have major dump
SPY needs to turn back up around this point or…
K, You’re here. How’s the job?
The high-level 5 wave sideways consolidation
from SPX 930 to SPX 887 on Thursday gave
two likely targets…938 and 945.
The Job… Well I picked up AATI and ENG in the morning LOL
Had GROW , CATM, OCNW on buy list too but never got to em.
I was supposed to help upgrade the closets for the computer network. But hey first day I need admin rights first
I am wondering if i should follow my system and sell when it tells me or sell these at EOD.
TOS account just needs my funding to clear. the FAZ and SKF transfered into it. lol saddddd
K,
I would let the system tell you unless selling EOD is part of the system requirement.
GO BBT.
TNX closed +2.50.
SKF 5min nearing 36MA support but it doesn’t look good from the MACD perspective.
Its gap down today was its resistance.
SPY hanging by a thread.
Nothing decisive on the daily SPY although it broke the top trendline. Tomorrow will tell if it is a double top or new wave up.
On my chart, XLF is only 0.01 away from making a 9/36/15 cross-down. TradeStation will close the candle at 4:15pm.
Charlie,
“…I wonder if today could be a blow off top…”
Me too. Most things say we should continue going up (SPX), like stochastic, MACD, MAs, and only the 15,9 TRIX hasn’t turned up.
I can’t wait ’till SKF hits $80 in a couple of years.
XLF almost red…
George, I joined you by adding a small position in faz, this also starts my short positioning in the market.
At the 4:15pm close, TradeStation has XLF up a penny. Tomorrow morning, in order to avoid a 9/36/15 cross-under, XLF will have to open up on a large gap and blast higher. And that seems unlikely. So, the prospects for Turn-Around Tuesday aren’t looking too bad for the bears.
narrowminds,
FAZ looks faztastic. I believe I’ll hop in that tomorrow.
Thanks for the tip.
Good, I’ll have company
George,
I have a question. It’s not about the
market;so, feel free not to answer it.
Do you use USAA for your insurance
needs?
Grandfather had insurance with them.
We never did. But I think we could.
Julie
Look at the flash update in the middle left: http://www.shadowstats.com/
Interesting chart, I guess if we look at it from this view, the Dow can hit the 10000+ to back test the long term trend line.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SiGxM5DY4pI/AAAAAAAAAvk/WFOGdyE8Opo/s1600-h/Grand+Supercycle+III.png
narrowminds,
Thanks for the link. But keep in mind that
when you control how the economic numbers
are cooked, you control the market until
an unexpected event comes along…like
9/11.
Julie
narrowminds,
by the way I had a big laugh when I
received the last NeoWave e-mail.
Glenn posts on traders-talk from
time-to-time. It’s free. Should we
report him?
Julie