In case you are just tuning in, Wall Street done blowed up over the weekend. CNBC talking heads sounded like undertakers on Sunday night. Quite the spectacle.
Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.
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Hey, I was wondering: did anybody actually go long Merrill over the weekend?
I’m going to toot my own horn and point out my long Merrill hedge suggestions:
Aug 6: http://www.trivisonno.com/trading-the-triangle-day-6#comment-3249
Aug 11: http://www.trivisonno.com/mondays-trading-4#comment-3470
Aug 21: http://www.trivisonno.com/thursdays-trading-6#comment-4182
Rich a run back up to 1230 S&P.Any time duration for this or just a 5-7% run.Lot of turndates coming in around the 19th to the 22nd give or take a few days,soif we drop around 1175 tomorrow a turn on the 16th would fall right in place
K – btw speaking of who did what to whom in which garage Mankiw and the Bush administration proposed on 9/11/03 a major overhaul of the Frannies: here’s the NYT story where you can confirm that: http://tinyurl.com/5ptyyh
!
The Wash. Post’s recent historical review that traces the history of regulatory oversight and Congressional laxness due to well-funded lobbying is here:
http://tinyurl.com/3llzcm
And for a list of campaign donations recipients try: http://tinyurl.com/6ohlbz
As it happens the top three names on the list are Dodd, Obama and Kerry
Might want to factor that into your analysis and assessments of what’s broke on who’s watch and what can be done to fix it.
K,
Thanks for the link on DOW losses. Just did some calcs myself:
In the last 50 years, we’ve had 10 losses greater than 5%:
10/19/87 -22.61%
10/26/87 -8.04%
10/27/97 -7.18%
09/17/01 -7.13%
10/13/89 -6.91%
01/08/88 -6.85%
08/31/98 -6.37%
05/28/62 -5.71%
04/14/00 -5.66%
During the Great Depression (1928-1939), we had 44 such days…
so about 30 of those days left.?
i’m still reading yesterday’s PDF on the cycles and seasons. so much to learn.
K,
Nope, about 166 left at that rate:
44 days in 12 years -> 5% drop every 3 months
Now you see why people didn’t think too highly of the stock market at the time. Two notes, I expect less volatility (but still a lot) because there are more stocks and more investors to smooth out the process. Also, a lot of people have invested directly or indirectly (company pension funds) in the market, so it will hurt more this time.
i have twice made a chart trin vs Indu where i predicted that something bad was cooking. now for a third time i will draw the same chart and maybe post them later for some opinions. i found it very interesting so I hope you do too.
Paul F,
we have plunge protection, quant guys with backtested models, and a Fed chairman with a quirk for depressions. We are save!
Hewlett-Packard Co plans to cut 7.5 percent of its work force, or 24,600 jobs, in order to wring efficiencies from its recent acquisition of Electronic Data Systems Corp.
oh great i see unemployment rate improving WOOHOOO
On a lighter note, the2 insanely blown calls by the ref during the Chargers yesterday game caused me to break everything in my home. Others may have done the same – bump up in consumer spending?
hey my pats won sorry to hear about your chargers. just saw the end of it.
anyone seeing oil going down below 80′s? i looked at the weekly chart and it has strong support in the 80′s then 60′s
and to continue the K spamming
not sure how close but close enough.
UGA (gasoline fund) fell 10% today that should mean our gasoline will also go down 10% since it’s closely related
Tuesday is shaping up to be a solid drop at the open. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a sharp rally thereafter. I will leave it to the master (Rich) to work out the details.
Danny,
I caught the end of the game. When a QB fumbles backward when in throwing motion it is a fumble 99% of the time. How could Mr. Muscle ref blow that one?
Do any of you folks use “stop loss?” If so, in approximately what amount?
interesting. market still not oversold?
http://tradermike.net/2008/09/september_15_2008_recap_still_not_oversold/
K, I see oil going below 80. It was inflated by speculation and now everyone realized that China and India aren’t going to take off to the moon. The biggest sign that something had changed was a week or two ago when the market went down when oil went down…that’s when it finally clicked that the falling prices are more indicative of big problem that can’t be avoided. I believe we can put a fork in the peak oil theory for another decade or two. check out the blog “Peak Oil Debunked” for some fun information.
If OPEC were smart, they would increase production (or keep it steady) and send the prices well below $50/barrel. Kiss all of the alternative energy research goodbye and keep us hooked for a while longer. It is not in their best interest (long term) to keep prices high. Too bad, I kinda liked the T. Boone Pickens plan, though I still think he’s a slimeball.
Russ: I generally use an 8% stop loss on “normal” stocks. However, I increase it to 12-14% when trading things that swing like crazy, like SKF. With that said, I don’t like trading SKF much because it can swing so crazy. Unless you’re prepared to sit at the computer all day, there are better things out there (like options!).
Almost forgot…I sold a small portion of my puts (QQQQ) at the close but held on to the rest (SPY)…should be a fun ride tomorrow.
Matt, any word on the magic TRIN readings? While we shot down a lot, I would be surprised if we are oversold given how absurdly overbought we were from Friday.
K
any thoughts on oil bottoming this month ,
then sideways 2 – 3 months
after that leading a commodity ( inflation )
based rally
WAMU cut to junk by S&P YAAAAYY FUN TIMES
i sold my SDS bought on Friday…still riding 9 % allo to QID…
lots of posts here today, is this a record ?
**AIG just got downgraded by S&P
Carl Q just asked David Faber if this was the equivalent of a financial NUCLEAR BOMB. Faber was nodding yes and got interrupted.
Look out below.
darn crash where did you watch that? i haven;t seen Faber in a while.
after…we have to make this 504 posts in honor of this GREAT day.
and i do apologize for the high comment count on my part i am a notorious spammer lately
holy freak down futures down another 100+
NOO COME BACK SKF!!
I want to reload the game from 3:50PM and make a different choice
K, towlie, avg guy: John Hofmeister (retired CEO of Shell NA ?) was on CNBC and pegged the economic price at $65. Sharp guy btw, very. Oil sands/tars, don’t work unless it’s over $80. Most alternatives it’s higher. That said $65 is probably economic but aside from spec premium there’s a geo-political risk and a scarce resource charge so $85 would be a bottoms-up number to think about. If Saudi could manage the dynamics to keep us there all you say.
BUT China just cut reserve requirements and cut interest rates which means six months out demand will be picking up as they re-inflate their economy. Back to D>S instead of S ~ D. Try this, it’s a couple weeks old:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/EconCharts/Energy/OilPri22Aug08.jpg
and maybe this for the cost tradeoffs, at least conceptually:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/EconCharts/Energy/OilInd6XplrProdCosts.jpg
and just wondering… how many of you guys got 2 monitors like the Spammer K? (am just technologically advanced I swear that’s all)
http://i36.tinypic.com/14e3qsg.jpg
Nikkei found its way down -4.7% less than 30 minutes from the open.
The nightly news actually spent a good five minutes on the market and hauled out all of the CNBC clowns. Only one of them was able to spin this in a good way (something about how a bigger BAC would be good for the consumer, maybe).
I think a panic is starting to build as people are starting to realize just how big AIG is. A FED rate cut would sooth the market. Things are getting so bad that the market will ignore any perception of a panic rate cut…at least for a day or two. I don’t see a short selling rally lasting too long…after all, we had a one day rally on FNM/FRE. Has there been much time for short interest to build?
So what happens if they stay true to their word and don’t cut rates?
K, remember the running joke with SKF is that if it does shoot to the moon, nobody will be there to pay you.
be careful you guys who are short.. we are near capitulation levels here. some of my sentiment indicators are off the charts and other very close. futures are down fairly good now and tomorrow might be the day.
i see another 300-500 loss if no rate cut. this is scary. but i will contain myself for the night and wake up refreshed tomorrow
Pooch,
I think your Q puts will be OK tomorrow.
Matt
Crash – yeah it was the most blown call I have ever seen
K – I have three, plus a laptop. hehe.
David – Me too, and I agree, tomorrow could be the day.
Look at my custom buy / sell counts:
daily buy sell counts and ratio and buy / sell line.
INSANE.
I made a post too with some other indicators, ones that aren’t near bottom.
Looks like I might get a chance for some profit taking at the open.Of course if the futes are is bad as this morning i will be on the sidelines.If we break 1175 S&P next resistance is 1143.Se what i can find for the q’s….Will be waiting for Ricks update.Matts Q puts could be on sale tomorrow afternoon.
Sorry my typing sucks
hmm, futures are down big. I was my SDS calls back
honestly, i am wondering if this is the time too … a.k.a true capitulation or more slow beatdown.. hoping for the latter so thatI can reenter my shorts.
charlie i want my skf’s back but is ok.
Dblwy
thnx