Monday’s Trading – 7/13/09
The futures are down and a bank is exploding. Just like the old days!
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Banking holiday in our future?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Slp7_DtZ6oI/AAAAAAAABEc/6ApSyrLbbw8/s1600-h/spx30.png
george……here is your road map…..same a s before but updated…we need head and shoulders breakdown to blue Z to trap all the bears so we can get our final rally to new highs……..
george…..less likely …if we go above 908 we could be headed to new highs now!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Slp4UpU43LI/AAAAAAAABEU/D3OgaBH8tHc/s1600-h/spx1.png
george……if today is very strong up this could be the initial move to new highs now….see chart above
phil, thanks.
bear trap http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-07-12_trap.png
Another thing guys.. Merideth Whitney’s group upgraded GS from hold to buy this morning. Gave the stock a $5 + boost. Has she defected or is she seeing something we aren’t. Recall, Whitney’s been pounding the banks hard for over a year and for her to switch sides is significant in the eyes of many bears…
Should have known all of that CIT bad news would make the market go up. What was I thinking?
I got nothing.
charlie ..did you listen to her commentary???she is still very bearish on the banks and looking for 13 to 14% unemployment ….
SPY nearing support, 5min 36MA.
I hope this slight ranging volatility maintains it’s ziggy zaggy. I know Mattgic will make beaucoup bucks.
I luv it. Power to the scalpers.
Scalps-Я-Us
SPY overshot that support before turning around. Reason: The 5min stochastic had not bottomed (to the 20 line). It finally did then turned around for a nice bounce. Don’t know how long it will last but looks okay right now.
BBT straight up on the 15min this AM. That’s due to banks being in trouble.
GO SSO. Hey, the lower the inverse goes, the sweeter the next move up for them.
Trés Amigas alive and well here in Mattgicville.
Twin peaks on SPY here. 15min MACD still shows strength although the stochastic on that time frame has been flaky.
Switching to 60min shows SPY crossed MACD and rising since the 9th.
George, looks like we get a tentative buy on the daily, weekly still down. So the counter trend move phil has indicated might play out.
Amazing: I get back and the market has moved only 1% – usually I manage to match significant tops and bottoms with my travelings. Not sure the double-bottom in the /es we got today will qualify as such.
george…..upward explosion coming in qqqq …target 18dsma…..ready to buy any pullback now
This is what happens when the stochastic/MACD on various time frames are in different positions… Some over bought, some oversold. Folks trading on those different time frames aren’t looking at the others, so if the 15min says buy, while the 5min says sell. (Example, BBT.)
In the case of SPY, all of those time frames are “aligned” so it continues up until it max’es out.
That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.
George Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 10:38 am
Twin peaks on SPY here. 15min MACD still shows strength although the stochastic on that time frame has been flaky.
Switching to 60min shows SPY crossed MACD and rising since the 9th.
george………..60 min buy on macd for qqqq was one day earlier …the 8th…ie look at the leader….buy the leader
Been a bit too pre-occupied to trade this morning. As George pointed out.. the market was giving different signals on different timeframes.. a little hard to read at first, but it seems the market has made up it’s mind right now.. = up we go.
george….as i said ” upward explosion” ..if this gets out of control on the upside it may be hard to find an entry point
george….maybe the bears are already trapped by their head and shoulders.. lol
yerk…..i am assuming that there will be another down wave….but that is not guaranteed…as i said if upside explosion continues we could take out the highs now!
phil,
Glad you brought up the head and shoulders. Where are we in relation to that? Backtesting something before continuing down?
phil,
Entry points are easy to find in a hard-trending market. I use the 1min pull back then when price crosses the 9MA, I jump in.
According to my Fibs on the 15min, SPY price is there.
Hey George,
the neckline for the H-S pattern right now is at 880 so I would consider the H-S pattern to either be void or that we are in the process of forming a 2nd right shoulder.. which may not be out of the question considering that the current pattern as 2 left shoulders. If the H-S pattern is to remain intact.. this 2nd right shoulder can’t exceed 930 otherwise.. I believe it is invalid.
It could also just be dancing around the 880 – 900 range until Options X before the bigger tank. Hard to say right now.. Options X weeks tend to be quite crazy.
Charlie,
Yeah, I don’t know where to draw the neckline. I’m going with your analysis. I’ll go with a break either way here then.
Thanks
I’d be surprised if we didn’t close with green shoots. Something, like a catalyst (not counting bank insolvencies) could bring it down. Perhaps Paris Hilton makes a press conference.
phil – first nut to crack for the bulls is 890, if they really manage to break above 900 anything goes… Institutions need to start buying again. The h-s pattern is too obvious – and there are three ways of resolving them, anyway.
AXP – eager bulls are seeing a break-out from a falling wedge in a larger bull flag. No rally without financials imo.
Saw an UBS report today to re-enter the inflation trade in commodities…
Let’s see where the battle liquidity vs reality leads us to.
Strong reports from some of the financials this week will probably boost the market up.. It’s practically a known fact that GS will have a huge quarter.. but the question is if it can make it past 900 and hold for the week. If it can.. then Phil’s case of a higher high might hold.. but right now.. I’m not so sure..
Will be probably trading very lightly myself this week as I am getting quite busy. Still hold SRS though and the covered calls I sold are degrading in value quick
If things look to be getting more nasty.. I might buy them back and dump my SRS. but right now.. things still look ok.
Yerk.. that last tip was a excellent point.. Oil is already below $60 and might be primed for a bit of a bump up soon.. that means.. lower USD and also higher commodities = death to SMN.
http://www.trivisonno.com/mondays-trading-71309
charlie…as far as oil and commodities…i believe they are dead….oil to 10 – 20 ..if this is true as i believe it is
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3460/3714275993_51a19eea4e_o.jpg
sorry ..12 44 link was wrong
phil Says:
July 10th, 2009 at 11:46 am
max pain spy=91 qqqq=36……will they let it fall further away than it is already????
……..charlie as u mentioned op ex…i didnt think they would let it fall
george…..re h and s….see 9:14 am post…..blue line slanted h + s….straight line 879
Hey Phil.. I think that the SPY Max Pain dropped to 90 already. Also.. lots of calls puts sold @ 90 and 91 so for those to expire worthless.. then the market needs to make it up to at least that level.
Quite frankly.. very doable by the SPY right now.. only about .45 away.. so I expect volume to dramatically decrease over the course of this week and to probably close a little bit higher than where it is right now.
All in my opinion of course
As for oil.. in reality.. yes.. it should be 10-20.. but we aren’t in reality here and if the USD keeps falling.. then there is very little chance that we’ll see oil that low for a while.
charlie…..just checked max pain spy now…..its 90.0
A take on MeriDeath (now MeriPump?):
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1209-Whitney-And-CNBC.html
Chop, chop, fizz, fizz, oh, what a scalp it gives.
If the SKF 15min MACD can cross along with the stochastic, the daily direction will reverse. It’s having a hard time though. Dips on the underlying are being taken up.
Randall, looks like Karl’s missing the point this time. She says: “It’s a trading call,” she said, adding that “you don’t want to be short these names.” What will go down in the longer term might very well go up first. Don’t forget it is #1 priority of the adminstration to protect certain banks. And she explains in a very detailed way how these “improvements” are fabricated. It’s all tactical, nothing is improved in the core. Profits/revenue streams are pushed forward. Main street will bleed until Wall Street is drowned.
george…fyi… skf sitting on 45dsma…..
now skf caught between 45d and 18 d ….look for bounce to 18dsma if 45 holds
SPX 50% FIB is ~900.
Mini-MOAR would be nice.
Is Meredith manipulating the market? Conspiricy theorists arise!
SPY still no 9/36/15. Price crossed, but the MAs didn’t.
Double tops cause flip-flops.
Spy working its way toward 180MA but has some resistance along the way.
look for a quick downdraft here…..looks like diag 5th
I’d like to see SKF go down and fill that daily gap at $42. It gapped down today but only made it 3/4 down to that gap.
overlap of 888 would be a problem
At this rate.. FAZ/FAS will be at parity again by tomorrow.
I think if you read the actually Meredith text.. it is much clearer as to why she is saying GS is a buy. GS is practically in bed with the FED so they won’t let it go down. So unless the FED fails, GS will remain alive.
BTW.. happier by the min I let those GS $140 Puts go on Friday..
GS is a monster…
Charlie, I see what you mean. True, all the banks are Fed buddies. I’ve always liked investing in and trading banks.
Is Meredith manipulating the market?
@George: If you would have airtime on CNBC what would you do?
Dressguard,
I’d say buy BBT then have my broker back up the truck.
George,
Please tell us how you fell in love
with BBT. Did they give you a car?
Are you related to the CEO?
Dressguard,
I was just joking about that… mocking how folks are when there is a recommendation or suggestion contrary to their belief.
Meredith is a credible source from what I’ve heard and certainly knows more than I’ll ever know.
SPY made it up to the 50% FIB.
That’s on the 15min. So, could have a reversal here.
phil’s been calling it.
george…thanks….but i have no position so i hope you profited….
phil,
Yes. Wonderful moves today.
PLUS, SKF filled its July 1 daily gap up. And with this daily gap down, I look for some nice moves to come.
If the mess off the top (956) is a leading diagonal, then it could take as long as 2-3 weeks for the H&S to play out. We should find out shortly. A requirement for a leading diagonal is that the rate of wave 5 is slower than the rate of wave 3. If 5 has greater speed, it’s more likely a 1-2, 1-2 combo which means we would be commencing a subwave 3 of 1 of (5). Anyhow, I shorted EOD.
paula,
Okay
I worked for BBT and retired from there. I was originally at UCB where I had the bulk of my time and they bought us out.
I’ve invested and traded mostly in banks over the years due to their dividend and price movement. I like to think I know BBT like the back of my hand but the Fed keeps messing things up. I had favorite banks to trade. I then gradually expanded my trading to other stocks. Now, just a few favorites and the indexes.
If/when we get to a 3rd of a 3rd of P3, I want to be comment number 444, 333, or 222 at the end of that wave. Blog posts are inversely correlated with the market, so I’m guessing I have a shot at it.
JG,
I don’t know what you said but I hope you get your wish.
Thanks George!
George, I think JG threatens to spam the blog with nonsensical posts first to tank the market (inverse correlation) and then count the comments. I’d have expected some fib numbers, but so be it.
Yerk… ROFL! No need to spam, just flick the switch on the SGA, which I did just now—right as the sun came out. Previously I posted a fib number of comments, but no one except myself was amused.
George,
Congrats on your trading. Understand
why you love BBT.
Paula
paula,
“Did they give you a car?” ANS: They give me one every year – if their stock has a lot of volatility.
“Are you related to the CEO?” ANS: Only by proxy vote.
Zingers are fun.