Kudlow Cracks Down
At about 2:30 into this CNBC video, Home Shopping Network CEO Mindy Grossman sez: “The ceiling has come down on retail spending.” About a minute later, Larry Kudlow barges in to deliver the party line, and questions Grossman: “Is that bullish or bearish for you?”
This is an amazing example of propaganda. All that Grossman did was report a fact of reality that could be very important to CNBC viewers. And then Kudlow, who wasn’t even part of the interview, barged in to stamp it out. Wow.
Joe “Loose Canon” Biden
Take a look at what Vice President Biden said about Russia in this Wall Street Journal article. If you were thinking that the Cold War is over, guess again. President Obama is cheerfully continuing President’s Bush’s “Squeeze Russia” policy. And as Biden’s comments make plain, it is an aggressive policy.
Having lived through the Cold War, I would love to see the Russians shrink to regional-power status. But I think this Bush/Obama policy is unnecessarily reckless, and foolishly cavalier. The Russians sent us a message last year when their tanks rolled into Georgia. They are willing to fight the “squeeze policy.” Now, we have Russian subs back on the East Coast. That’s another message.
Those subs are unlikely to sink any US ships, but if I lived in Ukraine, I would be a bit unnerved hearing Biden blatantly taunt the Russians like that. What would the USA do if Russian tanks rolled back into Ukraine? Nothing. Just like we did in Georgia. Our forces are tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan. If Obama wants to fight the Russians, wouldn’t it be a good idea to actually have some forces ready?
Correct Matt. They are playing with fire.
2. Premier Wen yesterday again confirmed that China will maintain its aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus. That’s not enough Mr Wen. You need to pump more.
Shanghai rallied 1.5% of the start from the good news from The Premier, but closed down 0.3% (after a strong finish). We are down 6-7% since last Tuesday.
CNBC and Wall Street need another story if the China story starts to shake. Maybe Nikkei at a 10-month high sounds attractive?
HEEY no fair the media is using our lingo!!
“‘Three Amigos’ joining forces in swine flu fight”
Baltic Dry -3%.
Very interesting catch, Matt and well played. Does Mr Biden know John Foster Dulles?
god damn AIG so much $ to be made scalping in and out too bad i got no trades left
BBT at 15min 36ma support. Could get a bid here. SPY is below its 15min so shorts may not cover as eagerly.
I am in Kiev Ukraine right now, Biden stayed at the Hyatt hotel just down the street from me, mega security all around when he got here a few weeks back.
Biden is a fool – why taunt the Russians? Let that dog lie.
Ukraine is in bad shape – this is one corrupt country, where politicians treat their office like a personal country club and as a way to fleece the masses for personal gain. Elections here next year will likely install the Russian leaning candidate, would not be surprised if Russia takes Ukraine back into the fold – not by rolling tanks, the Ukrainian people are already wanting in large part to flee back to the motherland…
Ukraine did figure out the gas problem with Russia though, taking a cue from Obama, Geithner and Bernanke – when they need to pay for gas, they just fire up the printing presses…the result: Ukrainian currency has been in steady decline. I see another Iceland in the making here…
I hear you Randall, Ukraine increased the money supply by enormous amounts starting back in 2004. Are they at it again?
Randall,
Good observations. A non-CNBC news update is refreshing.
SKF is wiggling its way to the 15min 36ma where it has been beaten down like a criminal each time it has tried to cross over that fence. Lots of resistance there and could get pistol-whipped again.
George, I’ll give you some more non-CNBC news:
Baltic Dry Index, although a volatile indicator, is now down 37% since its peak on June 3. It is down 20% over the last 6 days.
Does this mean the Chinese stockpiling is over?
2. The Chinese are cooling down loan growth. This can only end one way. We’re going south. See the last paragraph.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a2uzw71az3O0
Longs are afraid to take profits and are willing to leave some on the table as opposed to selling and missing more of a move up. After all, this is a new Bull Market.
Larry,
Good article. Thanks
The disconnect right now is institutional money flow in the US is bullish whilst the international context is gaining momentum pointing downward.
The reason why down will dominate in the longer term is we have a severe lack of realism like this quote from nakedcapitalism: “One of the defining characteristics of Team Obama is preference for spin in lieu of substance.” Don’t get me started on my home team, which lacks the competence to spin properly to begin with.
Randall:
>>>Ukrainian currency has been in steady decline
It won’t be for long!! A little over a year ago the worry for Ukraine was inflation and pegging likened to Russia was considered. You should buy some Hryvnia while you’re there or at the least flex on them a little with your pound and see the steppes. Surely don’t complain.
GS losing steam since Thursday morning.
Larry:
Some days I feel like Peyton Manning playing QB in the Pee Wee league – way ahead of my receiver and handing off to thin air. Other days I feel like, well, me in the NFL. Oviously baltic index easing back is not a bullish indicator & nor is enough copper in London storehouses to replace all pennies with real ones either. Are you giving yourself until Op Ex to patch up this ass whippin’ you’re taking?
we’ll see spx 1011 before we crash lol
ahh this trendline is working perfect (I hope or else it’s all bullish for the day)
Mitch, I am up 3% in my Short ETF since I went in last week. Oslo is not joining this. So far.
George, remember we talked about Sugar back in June? Today it hit a 28-year high.
Pumping money like crazy, 6 Billion people with a sweet tooth and Ethanol in Brazil and Thailand.
This will not end well.
FTSE has had a fairly quiet day today, range & volume-wise and closed down a couple of pts.
The cash mkt has printed an outside day (& bar) last Friday and an inside day today.
Larry:
Ribbin’ is tradin’ like rubbin’ is racin.’ I’m expecting something back from Randall too! Smack talking “Biden” style. Unfortunately some people take this wrestling style show boatin’ politicians do seriously.
Mitch, what do we do if they create an enormous bubble in commodities?
1970 x 5.
Should we start hedging that scenario after November?
Larry:
>> they create an enormous bubble in commodities?
If they try that and over-shoot then what for them?
Haha. Let’s discuss again in November.
Larry,
That hike in sugar is because of us Southerners feeding the hummingbirds. TWEET, CHIRP…
Larry:
I have been hedging and I appreciate more than you know all of your comments.
BBT has been bucking the trend all morning.
SKF filally made it over its 15min 36ma, now to see if it can hold and begin an uptrend. It has made it this far before and was slapped down.
Speaking of sugar… it’s like every farmer around here grew corn this year. They had a good year, too. Rain at just the right time. Corn is used for everything it seems – even used to make plastic dishes.
I’m now buying kitty litter made out of corn. Now all I need is a bunch of chickens to eat the litter once the cats are through with it. Then I would have eggs.
George:
You would also have fertilizer for some good roast-n-ear corn.
Great George. I have bought a small rice farm. We can exchange best practises.
GS leading the way here folks.
Stringm,
I hope your KISS a Turtle head is catching these moves today.
The SKF MACD slow trendline hasn’t crossed the zero line yet, until so, it is not officially trending up. The Tres Cruzars kit kicked off Friday has played out well so far. I’m up to the 30min where it is getting resistance at that time frames 36ma. Plus it may be fighting some minor resistance here. It would be nice if it could at least close Friday’s gap.
GS -2.3% and below 160.
Paula: Something is in the air.
Larry,
Maybe the full moon is working afterall.
George, it’s Jupiter and the Sun. Friday 14.
George
I am Playing TLT today, and reading that GS document Yerk posted. I am trying to build a position in TLT in hopes folks will like 4% again real soon. I am trying to stick to daily charts. Doing a lot of walking to pass the time.
String
Larry, gotcha.
I also noticed the VIX 5min in a very narrow up channel. Perhaps those in the know could tell if that is bullish or bearish for the VIX?
Stringm,
Nice… TLT. Wish I had played it instead of SRS. SRS is okay, just not making the move I had hoped for like SKF & company.
Walking is the best exercise there is all ’round. Yeah, swimming and other stuff has its advantages, but I walk a lot and it does wonders for the body and soul.
Stringm, Are you trading TLT automated, alerts and such, or manually?
George
No automation, but I use those color bar wizards. When the MA2 crossed the 3,3 and the DM crossed on the hourly my red bar went from red to green. I did a little peeking and then got in when price got back above the crossing bars open at 90.59.
String
SPY wants to do a stochastic double bottom here. That’s when the stochastic bottoms to 20, bounces back up, down again to 20 then tries again and is usually successful for a low risk trade. These occur fairly often. If it moves far enough, it can turn the MACD trendlines up to some degree.
Anyway, it gave a Dos Cruzars I played, holding to see if Tres Cruzars develops. Kinda jumpin’ the gun here.
Stringm,
What color bar wizards? I haven’t heard of that – at least I don’t think so. Man, that sounds good.
George
I thought I had told you how to do it. Open up a screener spreadsheet and put the stocks you always follow in it. Right click on the screener columns at the top. You will see color field wizard. Click on it and set up the rules. The formula can be complicated or simple. If you want a MACD hist crossing zero, set it up. Then have a rule = 1 be green, and rule = 0 be red. After it is set up go back to the screener and add the color field you just built. It will tell you when any stocks in the list have a MACD busting zero.
String
watch out!!!!!!!!!!!
USD/CAD has had 2 huge candles past 2 hrs and spx is following suit in reverse
Stringm,
You may have told me. I have copied everything you have written and put it into a document for reference. I didn’t see that so I may have forgotten to copy it. You know how it is when you get my age.
Got it now. I’ll play with that tonight. I actually can’t imagine not using something color-coded like that, it would make eyeballing much easier.
Thanks!
George
Let me know if you need any more info. I’ll write the code for you if you tell me what all you want.
String
Hey, I’m getting pretty slick with this SD stuff. I have the 15min with newly drawn trendlines in a channel with Fibs setting there and all the other stuff you gave me. If my screen was on a screendoor, a gnat couldn’t get through it.
If/when SPY hits that lower line it will be at ~30.80 FIB retracement. Then it will break from there. Really helps seeing this with such a visual impact.
Stringm,
In my notes, here are a couple of quickie quant trading methods may be worth playing with automation. I don’t have any reference where I got them, but I’m sure they are not ©.
Annualized, over the past 2 years, the system has returned 47.33%
Here are the rules:
1. If the close is below the 2 day moving average, buy the SPY.
2. If the close is above the 2 day moving average, sell the long position and sell-short the SPY.
Another simple system:
Buy Rule: Buy SPY on the next open after it closes beneath the 72 DMA
Sell Rule: Sell SPY on the next open after it closes above the 27 DMA
Return on Equity: 30.03%
SPY 15min touching the lower trendline a smidge above 30.80 Fib. Twill either breakdown or use it as support.
BBT’s stochastic double bottom worked out great. SPY did okay, waiting to see if it has anymore oomph on this little move. .10c on these counters is about as much as it’s giving. I’ll take it. Remember when counters were a buck or more?
George, what? 50% – have to check that system. I did see something similar with short-timeframe cross-overs but could reproduce only parts of it. Keep it short straight and simple.
Slow move down looks like we’ll close near the lows.
George,
You’re righting about walking. But if you’re wound up like me, basketball can give you an excellent chance to curse, yell and scream for an hour. I find that to be very therapeutic.
Sold KEY and AFF for 25% gains. Very glad about that. Maybe the market corrects, maybe it doesn’t, I’ll get back into both if they come down. Still think that the lower buck will hold a bid under equities in the next quarter or two, but commodities might do better even…
Stringm,
TLT is now one of my largest positions, and I will add again if it goes to 89. I see 86 as an IT bottom.
Buying small starter positions in C and BAC. Call me crazy. If the market corrects significantly, I’m going to add.
Marty
When does TLT payout dividend or interest?
String
sold my SPY 100 PUTs from Friday.. + 6% on the weekend hold. Just a FYI..
String,
Don’t have that date handy. Haven’t been paying attention. Still, 4% is nothing to sneeze at, moreover, esp. if you’re using this as a hedge. No?
Charlie,
WTG. Hope all is ok at your place.
Thanks for asking George. Things are certainly settling down now for me. Hopefully I can spend more time watching the markets soon.
nice job charlie. after my options this time wipe me out I will add 2k to my account then start being conservative.
1015-1018 is back in play now probably
the market is still trading in a well defined channel. Safe to short at the top and buy at the bottom channel lines so far.
I would look to short individual names as things are very overbought.
Oh, Charlie, congrats on your baby!
Thanks Marty!
Really cool, SPY opened on that 61.8%, 15min, wick went down to lower trendline, closed that candle above the 61.8% fib and has slowly moved up since then.
interesting thing. used my system to buy 5 different stocks within the past week. all are in green as of close (i hope i don’t jinx myself)
Average gain on each (combine/5) is 1.54%.
I’ll take it anyday.
my hardheaded brain system lost me today still lol
K,
Don’t feel bad about being hardheaded. I did the same thing at the close. Got the SPY setup and instead of waiting for it to completely play out, I sold early. I do try to close out 10min til 4 anyway. Still, that’s where automation has it over botchumation,,,, or something like that.
There’s always the next time.
the more I read the reminisence of a stock operator the more it reminds me of what I am doing RIGHT NOW!!! he was 27 when he did the mistakes I’m doing. I just got 7 years on him. wohooo! time to liquidate my portfolio and start anew with a fresh mind
US banks stand to collect a record $38.5bn in fees for customer overdrafts this year, with the bulk of the revenue coming from the most financially stretched consumers amid the deepest recession since the 1930s, according to research. The fees are nearly double those reported in 2000.
Yikes!
And I thought Canada was the only fee’d up banking country.
dshort has a new chart out
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/road-to-recovery-large.gif
damn it dollar stop breaking correlation just as I start to follow it!!
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14148.htm
one last ooopsie!
Japan, Australia Stock Futures Slide on Valuation Concern, Oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a4uUWvJBEsUQ
I dropped a quarter in a hotel and had to give the busboy a dollar tip to pick it up for me.
$38.5 billion is robbery – legal, of course. That’s probably not counting the fees credit cards charge.
Just goes to show that not all crooks are behind bars.
awright!!
http://esecfutures.com/2009/08/10/market-sentiment-update/