On Friday, Ben Bernanke proclaimed that the Fed will not permit deflation:
“The FOMC will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction.”
TLT plunged 2.79% on the day (and TBT soared 5.65%). So, did Bernanke kill the bond bubble? Did the tidal wave of money that rotated out of stocks and into bonds reverse course on Friday?
WOW – Jap mkt up 3+ percent, Asia following, any helicopter sightings in Japan dumping large pallets of yen?
If we don’t get 4-1 overlap on cash today, one thing about which to be mindful is that when wave 1 equals wave 3 in length, watch for an extended wave 5. (1129-1069 is 40 points; 1100-1040 is also 40 points.) If we get 4-1 overlap, then we cross off that count and watch all the others (bear and bull). Classical TA could support an extended wave 5 here. Futures are easing off, but 4-1 overlap did occur there. Futs were +8, but now stand at +3.7.
Regarding nested 1,2s, I generally like those better when the second 1,2 set is smaller than the first, not when they are equal and channeling or the second w2 breaks above the downchannel. Waves are messy, no? GL.
Japan easing off. GL.
Yo:
I tried a quick trade Friday buying premium on a T-bond inverse. Position didn’t turn positive in the time table I had in my mind so I closed it.
Randall,
This gives me goose pimples: How ’bout you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7-Bhw3wBRs&feature=channel
Bonds are a whale of a bubble.
TNX has been going down since 1991 – as far back as StockCharts allows. The monthly got a Death Cross before that year while the weekly has had several Golden and Death Crosses during that time.
sold TBT 31.90 late fri
bought TBT 31.40 pre market today
g
careful shorting bonds here…it could have only been the top of the 3rd wave up…it should be more of a 2 sided trade now instead of only up
G… JIM… MITCH
draw a line across tops early may and late june TLT.on the daily chart….u will see where to buy and sell it…it is not a short yet..you will see why.
GEORGE
if you could post it that would be great
G
TNX has been going down much longer that that …LOL
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3608/3639836440_ed9708c81a_o.jpg
p
Just got back online. Here’s the chart.
http://i36.tinypic.com/2u93315.jpg
p
Nice LSD chart you posted. Whew! What spider created that?
p
That bubble will bust one day and I’ll be there!
SKF 15min MA lag.
http://i38.tinypic.com/2i24z0i.jpg
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
I may have been out bid on the bar. Nutter goodin’ though:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1I7X9jgEOJw&feature=related
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71161538727&r=7291&depth=24&listNum=&cmd=chartnotes,739|623
I found John Kerry!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6OlXCxm2Vo&feature=related
G
i am not having any luck making my own TLT chart….the line i wante d u to draw connects the spikes 0f may 6 and july 1 …that shows why it it doing what its doing now
G
after i have the stockcharts with the line i want on it how do i get it to matts blog???
p
I copy it and use tinypic to upload it with a link.
G…
no comprendo
p
Was that first link a copy/paste of the link of the chart?
p
There is a “linkable version” tab at the bottom of the chart. I haven’t tried that but maybe that will provide a copy/paste of the link.
bought TLT this am @ 106.33
sold TLT @ 107.05 near 36ma on 60 min chart…
.holding TBT bought this am
sold 10 yr notes bought late friday during bond smash
made 3/4 of a point ( 1 point = $1000 per 100k face)
The Bond King is back.
G
we are going to make beaucoup bucks when the tsunami out of stocks and into bonds stops…..note … they went ” all in “stocks at the 2000 top….looks like joe schmo is going to get burned in bonds next as soon as he puts his last nickle in….
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_4jIlyJ10uJU/THUKMO3JdII/AAAAAAAAI5Y/mOn7jzOtbx4/s1600/22invest-gfx-popup-v2.jpg
G..
if we have seen the top in bonds….( prob not)..wave equality for the ensuing correction should take TLT to 73….think joe schmo will be panicking at that level?????
G
if the correction forms a triangle ..then TLT 87 will hold
OMG, look at those charts, P! I’m buying another computer just to put TBT on it!
Ok, I’m looking for a pop here.
SPY has backed off to the 38% Fib on the 5min.
I’m showing a gap up on SKF as high as the 15min. Not as significant but certainly a minor target.
futures are at .618 retrace of wave from friday low
Holy geez batman we gonna break 1000 this week !!!!
Today could be triple 1,2s (1,2,1,2,1,2). That would mean down HARD tomorrow.
Assuming we stay under 1057, of course.
sold sds @ 35 .38
Ha, now that’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout. Hope it does this the remainder of the year.
p, nice.
JG, down again tomorrow? Can’t wait.
George… yep. Let’s gap ‘n go! Have a good one!
Ha! “Gap n go”… kinda like “lock n load”.
G
do you hold positions overnite??…gov mint may be buying futures while we sleep
p
Sometimes. I didn’t hold today.
I’m still working on trying to get StockCharts to provide a link. It has that link tab but it doesn’t keep an intraday chart.
I normally copy my screen, save it in a temp file, go to tiny pic, click on browse, it will bring up my disk where I select my file, then click on upload. After uploading, select the bottom-most link to paste on the blog.
And in local news… Michael Jordan and his Bobcats are donating $ to local schools to fund players’ fees. Yep, the middle schools are charging jocks to play basketball and football.
http://tinyurl.com/2uy8em9