Over the weekend, I mentioned that I was working on “trend detection” code. I was referring to trends in a scalping context, which is different from the traditional way of riding trends. For example, suppose that you got long at the bottom in March, rode the trend all the way up, and took profits at the peak in early June. That would have been a very nice trade, catching about 300 SPX points. With one ES futures contract, that would be a $15,000 profit.
But with vigorous and skillful scalping, I think it is possible to almost double that amount. In fact, in back-testing, Ziggy can get near that goal. Of course, we have to take our back-testing with a grain of salt, but scalping with a neutral bias can probably beat even the most precise trend-riding – even if the trend is of historic proportions.
But suppose that you could scalp the trend with a bullish, or bearish bias to match the primary trend? That would be something, right? The coastline gets longer and longer the finer you trace the fractal outlines.
On the other hand, being aggressive with the wrong bias will lead to terrible losses. So, this is the way I am thinking about trends.
Matt,
Good luck with Ziggy. How’s that SSSI?
We have a real estate boom in India and China. Historical highs for both volume and price. According to reports from the ground. Take it for what it’s worth.
Shanghai up 1.5% today. Highest since June 2008.
Copper continues up. Rising, rising, rising………
This will not end well.
100% Cash
futures getting stepped up – no action then a spike in volume and price.
George
i looked and still had a custom study built. I was able to overlay it on my existing MACD diff with the new updates installed. here is the code again if you need it.
String
<code.
(MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,1] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,2] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,3] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,4] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,5] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,6] + MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,15,7]) / 8
futures hitting 996.75 means they hit R2 and that might have set SPX for a potential 1000+ now we shall see if we retreat or go higher
I have 4 different charts that told me same exact thing at almost the same time. from 3-3:30 I got buy signals on /ES (futures) that was near 982-985
now i need to code these systems into one and become a superpower
That’s it. I don’t have the patience to watch S&P break 1000. The whole world is now bullish, but I don’t see how Beijing can manage to throw ever-increasing stimulus at this.
Sell and hold
30 Short
70 Cash
oops Larry you are one smart fool. I’ve been short most of the way up
Currently
25% options (mostly puts)
15% equities
60% cash
Stringm;
I put the code in custom indicator. I only get the histogram, no 8-period trendline.
I edited the indicator and changed it from “Histogram” to “Normal” under the “Show As” column and it gave me the trendline but no histogram.
It won’t combine the two. Wondering what you have clicked on your setting?
George
I overlayed my existings MACD settings, which include MACD, Signal, and Histogram(Diff). That gives me two trend lines a Histogram and the George trend line of Diff. What are you trying to get to?
String
K, I got lucky. I will sit with this position for at least two weeks. No matter what.
Sold my sugar. 30% short, 30% gold, 40% $. Approx.
Oh, almost forgot: some forever stamps.
FTSE having another storming up day so far.
It got to within a couple of pts of it’s R3 pivot and only pulled back to R2, as I write.
Larry:
That copper in London – who most likely has the most warehouse receipts?
VIX is up so keep an eye out
Mitch, I don’t know, but I think we would both be guessing the same.
S&P going for 1,000. The whole investor world is watching. People say it’s a major bull signal.
Thanks Larry. About to be stopped out of gold – looking dead red (card).
999
100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
Matt,
Good luck with your coastline upgrade.
Very very hard to do.
I have heard about the pomo effect before, now it seems to have become sop with more pomo than non-pomo days.
p2 “The pomo effect” with some nice intraday statistics.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/PCM-A_G%20U%20T%20_of_Market_Manipulation.pdf
Ugh, my broker keeps logging me off.
Yerk,
SPX wave A down took 17 months. Am currently
looking at wave B up taking a third of that time.
Also if wave C equals wave A, we have some
currently unknown events coming in our future.
Have a great day. Enjoy.
George,
Read your broker the riot act.
Have a great day. Enjoy.
paula:
>>>Also if wave C equals wave A,
It mustn’t.
Mitch,
SPX wave A down was minus 909.30.
In most cases wave C down equals
wave A.
Yerk,
One possible event. Dollar no longer world
reserve currency.
paula:
Ok. Spot it 100-300 and perhaps an equal wave C. Problem is that Wave A was like the moon lost its pull (structural deficiencies), regained its pull around March (New Structures kicking in), lost pull again but regaining – where’s your sis? Time to turn it over huh? LOL.
Paula, thanks for the heads-up. You are good at this. But I don’t think there any alternatives to the US Dollar (for the immediate future).
So, let’s brainstorm about other possible scenarios. What is your Grandfather saying right now?
And does anyone still have that quote from Rich about upcoming events?
Larry – clearly in the bear camp now
Larry;
Rich:
Hey, gents! Just checking back to follow up, but no time to hang around, unfortunately.
Bearish triangle projects 680s-90s, which fits the wave 3 of larger EW degree from 1440, which implies additionally a potential target in the 640s-50s (’96 levels).
Traders are sitting on their hands waiting for the other guy to puke and sell, hoping for a capitulation selling climax and V-shaped bottom after which they can ride a seasonal rally.
But the PPT is also heavily active in forward futures, squeezing nearby put premia and foiling program traders (or trying to), with the primary objective to slow the descent and permit orderly liquidation by hedge funds, pensions, and mutual funds.
The result is likely to be increasing volatility and prices grinding lower. The long-forward VIX futures implied earlier VIX over 100 with the risk of 140+.
A 1% funds rate is priced into futures, and the Taylor Rule implies 0.25% to eventually 0% (with GDP deflator headed to 1% and below).
The historical self-similar secular bear pattern implies a seasonal low coming between the election or the week after to as late as mid-Dec.; a rally would then likely ensue into Mar. to May-June (a low-volatility topping process in the 900s-1000, which would then be followed by another devastating crash into late ‘09 to winter-spring ‘10, taking the SPX potentially to the 400s-500s with deepening global recession, 0% funds rate, and the 5-yr. below 2%, 10-yr. in the 2-2.5% range, and 8-10% unemployment.
Good luck!
Rich
paula, the guy who ran the analysis for the dod told me there is no viable alternative. It explains certain actions quite well. 300 is easier to achieve with a strong dollar. I don’t plan that far out, now expecting a retracement from 1010. Bull case intact above 950. All the higher targets still in play.
Larry, I don’t remember that Rich ever did forecasts that far out. I expect spx 600 q1 2010 – but first we have to see when this hot air balloon is going to come down again.
George, thank you! See, I forgot the best part of it
Larry,
Wow, when did Rich post that?
On the other hand, my KEY is breaking out big time, and I’m seeing a lot of stocks breaking out of ranges. Not sure what to do here, but will continue to fade the rally. If I’m wrong, the worst that can happen is that I miss what–20%? can’t go much beyond 1200 can it??…
Matt,
I agree with your comment about scalping being more profitable. But I think it takes automation to achieve that because the hard part is the intensity of the activity needed to make all trades to meet that goal.
With respect to trending, I’ll have more comments later. But the saying that the market trends x% of time and ranges X% of time is true on a particular time frame, but suffice it to say there is always a time frame that is trending. That’s what I’m trying to unlock.
Marty,
I didn’t keep the time-stamp on that post. sry
Marty, like last September/October. 1100 is the highest number from reliable sources I see.
As this pomo stuff seems to be significant, here is the link with operations and tentative schedule. Don’t know how much in advance they update the pages.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo_landing.html
Marty, early to mid-October 2008. I think. But I’ve had a couple of pints in the meantime so don’t take my word for it.
marty Says:
August 3rd, 2009 at 11:49 am
Larry,
Wow, when did Rich post that?
On the other hand, my KEY is breaking out big time, and I’m seeing a lot of stocks breaking out of ranges. Not sure what to do here, but will continue to fade the rally. If I’m wrong, the worst that can happen is that I miss what–20%? can’t go much beyond 1200 can it??…
>>>>>>marty….even a B wave could test the highs near spx 1600..could you withstand that?
I remember from March when the Boards were blinking 666 on S&P and and 6666 on DJ several times. It was scary to watch.
Now let’s get that 999 blinking a few times.
Larry
Very clearly in the Bear Camp again.
http://www.tradersedgeindia.com/elliott_wave_theory.htm
marty …scroll down to………flat correction……
marty …scroll further down to horror of horrors with irregular correction having a B wave above 1600 spx
Inverse trying to build a base here.
Sold out my last shares of AAUK on a breakout. Over 20% for that trade as a total. I’m happy.
Phil,
My noodle brain can’t process those Elliott waves. What is the flat correction saying?
Phil,
Okay, I think I see what you mean. A pullback then another wave up?
But 1600 on spx?? Well, if the dollar really tanks, which it is doing today, then maybe, but when? The USD would have to break its 2008 lows, around $1.60 Euro. But the Euro is struggling a bit, and the Yen is not really confirming, right now…
marty..it is possible that the decline from 2000 top to 2003 low was wave a.. then rally back to 2007 top wave b then down to march low wave c……ie the whole thing was a big wave A…..now we are in a big wave B since march 2009 which may retrace part or ALL of the decline from 2000
Phil,
Whoa, I don’t have such a cosmic frame of reference. But it does sound intriguing, and entirely negates the entire secular bear thesis I suppose.
marty also ….the 2007 spx top just eked out a slight new high vs 2000…ie…that is what the b wave can do………that is what i am saying the larger B wave could do also….usually it retraces .50 or .618 but could make a new high
marty…i believe it will be like the 70s…spx ranges up and down between 1600 and 666 for years and years….frustrating both bulls and bears
Okay, slowly wrapping my head around that thesis. It’s appealing, I must admit–and it would certainly blow out the “W” thesis that seems to be consensus…. Interesting. I will have to ponder that…. It would also fit my thesis on the strength of tech, which I think people are really underestimating…
marty….618 retracement of QQQQ coming up….could be the b wave peak….this guy and prechter are more bearish than i am…..they have it marked 2…..ie crash ahead….i think they are too bearish
Phil, the 70′s was also the chart I have been looking at. Until I changed my mind.
Larry,
Don’t know what Grandfather thinks right
now. Julia is in Australia trying to find him.
He has all of us worried.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SnIveAyprfI/AAAAAAAABOs/mI3KBTBueWg/s1600-h/qqqq.png
marty, the issue I have with the W is the last leg up…
SaxoBank is pretty solid in their analysis. Here their last report:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Saxo%20Bank%20Research%20Note%20–%20Savings%20vs%20%20Profits%20(2).pdf
Well, they do not touch upon the question how much credit has to be paid back from the then lower earnings. So far we see ignorance and obfuscation as best practice with regard to repaying something. Won’t work. Maybe massive inflation helps – but that is not that easy to achieve given the overcapacities.
oh god what a day.
Paula, good to hear that he will soon be in good hands.
K, you’re missing the whole show. It’s been going on for hours. You missed in March too.
Watch that 999 blink.
another not so nice day market wise for bears.
added some more DXD, avg now 46.62
selling all GLD bought last week….turnaround tuesday may bring a dollar reversal
Yerk,
I don’t know… between earnings, credit spreads, the dollar, etc., there’s a case for that last line in W.
Phil,
If you’re right, then just as I’ve made all my money long since April (I didn’t get in till then, I will admit), on the way down, I’ll make my money short. Intriguing!:)
i’m getting drained $150 each day for the past week or so LOL my account almost halved! oops. time to put scholarship money in
The banks are the big movers today, though no volume confirmation. Anyone have any theories on what’s going on? Will CRE be the next bail-out? I was thinking it would be the states, but if it’s CRE or consolidation of regionals, I can understand the big moves… tempting to take profits on KEY, but it just broke out and the next resistance is a nice move up…. greed…greed…greed. Feel free to use me as an indicator!:)
marty ..note the similarity from 1965 to 1975 to recent action…..i think 10 more years of sideways coming lihttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SnTfut6OkOI/AAAAAAAABRU/2KTDnL74yic/s1600-h/GSIII.png
EUR/USD 1.44
I think Paula is right. Something historical is in the air. I don’t know what it is.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SnTfut6OkOI/AAAAAAAABRU/2KTDnL74yic/s1600-h/GSIII.png
marty…1;36 link is no good
K………………the ndx is lagging….this is a big red flag..correction is near… turnaround tuesday??
Larry, that EUR/USD 1.44 print is serious business. Commodities flying. But historic will 1.60, no?
Phil, that’s some chart. I do like that 70s triple bottom…
good luck all……gotta go
phil, on the longer time frames you should adjust for inflation, so 4-5k on the dow.
Larry, maybe this: http://breakpointtrades.com/file.php?id=9932
K, sorry to hear that – trade your system and forget the rest. Even Matt is losing money when he does not follow his system…
added VXX avg 61.25 today, dow keeps melting up.
from hoping for a monday melt down, now i’m just hoping the dow might close up < 100…
Possible diagonal. Thoughts?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p25506065021&a=168714319&listNum=11
am more bearish than ever.
Got an SSO put and a TZA call.
Yes I cleared up an account besides this that I will use to follow my system except my system gives few but good signals and I have missed the march signals,
where are my manners..busy at work
SPX for today (almost done but worth a shot)
R3 1005.71
R2 999.45
R1 995.39
P 989.12
S1 985.06
S2 978.79
S3 974.73
currently at 1003.03
JG:
Can we get a little more diag (a lil steep for my truck to back up on- LOL)? Maybe at the least 35/40 deg?
you know what the funny thing is? My USD/JPY (dollar strengthening) bet yesterday was right but i got stopped $5 short of the real bottom and now the thing has skyrocketed almost $100
shorted UNG via Aug 12 puts. 0.15 bet.
Mitch,
The action the past three weeks hasn’t been steep enough? LOL.
JG:
Yes if we were on a loop!
Futures R3 was at 1001.13 as stated last night. they reached 1001 and POOF they are approaching R2 at 995.81
jg, usd/oil, bkx … although lots of EW counts claim usd now reversing (well, didn’t they say so last week…) The zombie bulls are still marching…
WOW is it me or did GS just sh*t itself ?? world has ended my friends
GS had R1 and R2 today at 166.46 and 166.48 and itself it topped at 166.28 so really strong wall
Yerk,
Yep. Kill me twice. I still have charts pointed at the breakaway gap after a mild pullback. Did I mention I live in the Twilight Zone???
Larry,
Are you planning to short for a mild pullback here, or are you anticipating a more substantial sell-off? Hard to know, I know, but I was just wondering….
jg, yep this is my favorite scenario. Stalker is the movie for the Zone. Watching it, you know what the spx@100-world looks like
jg – is this what you’re looking for?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/SndBuJO9TgI/AAAAAAAAAh0/Qf8k_l0Bd68/s1600-h/afl.png
Yerk,
My long and my short charts are both still in play. I still need to see the depth and nature of the pullback (should one ever come!). A la Clockwork Orange, I may have to prop my eyelids open with toothpicks so as not to miss the red candle(s).
Oh, these tiny red candles are easy to spot in the sea of green (shoots). As soon as you see one, you know, the next one will be big and green…
instead of following my emotions and being down another $165 today.. I could have shorted FAZ at $50 when my system said and been $20+ on each share
ES Futures for 8/3 4:31PM to 8/4 4:30pm
R3 1029.13
R2 1015.19
R1 1009.88
P 995.94
S1 990.63
S2 976.69
S3 971.38
wow 60 point range. this should be interesting.
Currently above P at 1000.75 1001.13 is previous day’s R3 so it seems to be teasing alongside it even though that’s sort of finished.
Today the ES futures bounced off the P at 3am and never returned. that was at 983.56
wow http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/august-long-term-elliott-wave-update-on-sp500/
Jungle, it’s a bet that the China story will collapse. If it does collapse, everything else will collapse. I will give it two weeks. I can afford to lose the whole bet, which I will if they tank the dollar now.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1287-ROFL!-FDIC-Tells-Banks-To-Quit-Cooking-The-Books!.html
FDIC “Tells Banks” To Quit Cooking The Books!
btw seeing a 3 digit number on ES is relieving even though it’s just 999 and 1 point can change things