The Iranian Front
Since the futures opened up on a gap Sunday night, I don’t think that the market is worried about Iran. The futures rolled over an hour later, but that’s probably just a continuation of the sell-off. If the futes were worried about Iran, they would have made a large gap down and then kept right on going. Having said that, I still don’t like the smell of this Iran situation. President Obama knew about the new nuclear facility for a long time, and didn’t make it public until after the Iranians did. Here is Obama’s explanation:
“Mr. Obama said he had withheld making the intelligence public for months because it “is very important in these kind of high-stakes situations to make sure the intelligence is right…”"
Or maybe he was “saving” it in order to get maximum impact from the news as part of a propaganda offensive to sell the war to the American people. The fact that Obama hastily began his offensive shortly after the Iranians informed the IAEA of the facility and stole his thunder makes me think that a strike on Iran was already in the works until the Iranians noticed the red laser dot on their forehead and fessed up.
IYT Gap Support
Last week, I had the 14.75 level marked on my XLF chart because that was where the September 16th gap opened. The XLF moved back-and-forth through 14.75 on Thursday and Friday, and you could just feel the support crumbling away. This week, I will be watching the IYT. It has a gap at 68.57 from September 10th, and it may be crumbling. That level is also just a few pennies above the IYT’s August peak. If the transports close the gap and move below, it will likely be bad news for the rest of the market.
Meme Propagation
On September 20th, I wrote:
“Trillions injected; zero jobs created. Kind of scary when you think about it…”
Six days later AEP wrote:
“If you look at the sheer scale of global stimulus this year, what shocks is how little has been achieved.”
Note to global intelligentsia: you are merely a human botnet which I program with memes. Resistance is futile!
1038.65 is now acting as short term resistance for futures as expected.
S1 future pivot is 1035.63 so we basically are bouncing off of it so far.
Yerk, thanks for the oracle update.
Heh, I might be right about my last blog post. we’ll breach 1080 if this weeks up. the only drawback is we have 2hrs till trading and anything can happen (although slow news day)
Ha! Mattgic is now the Trading Borg leader. Hook’em Dano.
K,
“RIMM..ed”… I like it. I haven’t traded RIMM in ages but it used to be one of my regulars due to the nice volatile moves it made. RIMM and ICE make a nice couple.
Hope it pays off for you.
George click my name and check latest blog if you haven’t. Think ill be right in calling today a green spx day? I’m skeptical but yesterdays mind was sharp
StockCharts having problems. Can’t get their website.
K,
That is a nice assessment and apparently right-on. Nice.
BBT nearing its 15min 36MA. Edging over it now. It has about $1 short-covering potential. Would wait to buy on another 1min setup or if it breaks up or down for shorts.
Phil did you get buy ddm Friday? Pick up calls before the close and they are flying today.
wow so far I love how yesterday’s blog post is playing out. of course.. i’m on the opposite side facing the Iranian rocket… lol
Yerk,
I keep a note book on the market. And some
time ago I wrote…”no matter what you think
about the market never overlook the qtr. ending
pump”.
I checked blogs while I was trading last night. Found
that more experts hold your view than mine.
lost $50 in RIMM have 100 left at risk.
In order to disentangle the $ from the inverse correlation to the indexes it took a huge “humpty dumpty” (as George would say) of the major indexes. I’m guessing the Dixie gazing should never be as clear as a true dixie winter sky. I kind of like this re-grip. Hopefully one of many grippings and gripings.
phil Says:
September 25th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
bears too jovial here for my liking….
phil Says:
September 25th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/mole-with-2-hot-girls.jpg
>>>>>>i warned about this rally……
phil:
Strips report out this week huh?
mitch….hhhahahah
scotty…..didnt buy fri… after covering shorts i was 100% long and didnt want to overdo it in case i was wrong
i might put some short hedges back on later today…..
phil 10k will cross now and they will be passing out the party hats on CNBC.
HOW many times have we crossed 10k in both directions??? lots of partying on wall st eh??
mitch..tlt looks like a post triangle thrust that could reach 100
no party on the downside
phil:
FWIW, 30′s are announced this week. That announcement combined with the strips report should make T’s more interesting . . . .
we are at the key resistance for 30 yr NOW ….i want to sell some now and more if bonds rally higher
That BBT play has turned out well. It got its Tres Cruzars this morning. Friday it was warning of an up move when the 50min MACD histogram gave a Tres Amigos.
CORRECTION, that shoud have been 15MIN MACD Tres Amigos on BBT.
I just came from the dentist. I had a regular checkup and that floride treatment. I asked how’s business and they said way down. Then there’s a popular restaurant in town that closed its doors Friday.
That’s the first sign I’ve seen in this area for bad economic news.
George:
Just got back from the washerette. Very noticeable lack of South American “tourist. ” However, a slight uptick in what looks like those of scandinavian descent. Finally starting to spark some nostalgia.
BEARS are very quiet http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/donnerbear2.jpg
If we finish over 1060 I believe new highs this week
above 1068..upside acceleration is very real
maybe tomorrow
ABOVE 1065.24 could lead to UPSIDE ACCELERATION http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sr0lKmDiO3I/AAAAAAAAB_I/qVhm_NPHAVs/s1600-h/spx1.png
PLEASE note the charts are made by bears ….i do not agree with their bearish counts ..just using their charts
who is letting air out of the balloon
daneric?
SOLD tlt 98.84
bullish close?? should be,lets see what volume does tomorrow
MITCH…i only have a little tlt left….saving it for 100
phil, K, et al,
Good stuff. Nice charts and calls. This is working out to hit my upper trendline.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=cacbe4c7-ab49-4546-ac42-34f9c7dd5195
phil (Hamilton):
Obviously CDs are maturing and the next spot for semi-scared money to go is T’s.
Just think – SRS, FAZ, SKF, SDS, all those juicy stocks are building Matt’s spring-loaded boost to the heavens. Someday. I mean, these things could go down to a 1-5 handle for all I know, but like Arnold… they’ll be back.
I’m still looking at $80 for SKF where that gap awaits.
mitch…..YES…..my CDs are coming due …i am going to lose cds with 7% and 6.5%rates…large dollar amount …..very painful…
phil:
Just think of the bank losing that CD lock-up – ugh.
phil,
That’s terrible losing those rates. I think of all the retired folks that are in the same boat. What a mess.
ok all…. c u hasta
phil:
Have a good evening! Have a sip on me! For the antioxidants ofcourse.
“of course” ellaminnowpee
What’s that smell?
Markets up today while TED Spread is also up and by a 5.42% increase.
if you are unfamilliar with TED spreads it indicates the risk of general economy (between interbank loans)
Anyways that’s not a good smell it starts with Sh**
I call Shenanigans on the market. We rally 1+% while TED Spread rallies 5.4% and the dollar also strengthens? See you down below!
New Blog Post: The One Day Rally Is Over! http://bit.ly/o2z4b
K,
Futures prices are based on supply/demand.
The SPX price is based on the cash price
of 500 stocks. The book “Trading For A
Living” has good info on what the futures
open interest numbers mean. Also you
might want to use the Henrick indicator
(spelling is probably wrong and I can’t
find my “Trading For A Living” book).
I have the book Paula.
when I see this am dying of laughter
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33063927
jeezus very hopeful bunch