Here are charts of the Monster Employment Index (click to enlarge):
Not exactly showing the end of the world, right?
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George and Sam, that SPY chart shows the positive MACD divergences I’ve been watching, but still don’t see them on the longer term (60 min and daily) charts–last I looked late in the trading day–I actually had to work today.
Matt, so do you think we are going to surprise to the upside Friday AM with more than 100k private jobs created? The jobs data lately has certainly not been peachy. Here is your chance to stand out on a limb since your Grasso call was money.
2th,
I didn’t think to check for a divergence. The 60min doesn’t have one but there could be a slight one on the 15min for both the MACD and TRIX. See what you think:
Here’s the picture of SPY 15min:
http://i46.tinypic.com/juej2v.jpg
Lots of mixed signals Matt. On the Bullish end: the Monster employment index rises strongly in June; Challenger Job-Cut Report shows very low lay-off announcements; the employment sub-index of the National ISM Mfg Index comes firmly in positive territory. On the Bearish end: Jobless Claims continue to remain stubbornly high; Consumer confidence surveys don’t reflect strong hiring trends; and the ADP employment report came in well below expectations signaling weak private sector growth. I think the job market continues to improve but the trend is very very fragile. So fragile in fact that the opposite of the “wealth effect” could result in reversal. The uptrend continues but remains in Jeopardy if we don’t see a large improvement in demand
yup George, that is what I am looking/seeing on the 15-min time frame. I’m guessing that means we are in a wave 4 which will top out between 1028 (already done) and 1048 (1048 was the last wave 4 level, so I doubt it will exceed it). Then wave 5 will make a new low below 1011. Then we’ll be free to rally. Perhaps rapidly into opex, perhaps slowly/tepidly into August. Once I see those signs on the 60-min, then I’ll cover up the remainder of the shorts, and let the longs play again without hedging.
Joan, you got your new low before July OPEX. Hope you are happy. $RUT was down 3% today at the low point. Sold half of TWM there! woo hoo.
I can’t remember who got DZZ going earlier this week or late last week, but great trade there! I missed it Monday AM when my alert for DZZ went off at $10.40 while I was intentionally staying away. Shucks.
Trannies suggest we are in (iv) of [i]. Fits with classic TA as well.
Have a safe holiday all. GL.
George,
You may like bear meat, but the bear riots
will destroy you. Move while you have time.
Your country will break-up. Texas is talking
about leaving now. You will be safe here in
the Alps.
The European Union is certainly a beacon of stability these days.
Suzie – the hills are alive with the sound of music….
Mitch – I like rose, guess “I have been kissed by a rose on the grey”, if you are a Seal fan…
Jim – great call on DZZ…
Tooth – like your plan, employment report looks to have jacked the foreign markets and US futures, pretty dismal report yet we will get that oversold bounce.
Suzie,
I have never proven my wife wrong – so if you are married your husband is in for one hell of a show. Even if I spot George an extra ten on his back 18. His ass will be so cold by then he’ll think he’s in the Alps.
Cheers,
Mitch
George,
Look for a turn around 7/8. It runs until
8/10. And then all hell breaks loose.
Like Randall said the music is great here.
Private sector jobs increased by 83,000 in June, according to the BLS.
The total year-to-date is +593,000, which is very respectable considering that there has been no contribution from construction jobs due to the overbuilt housing and commercial real-estate markets.
Mitch,
You could spot me 100 on the back 18 and I’d still freeze to death.
Suzie,
Thanks for the heads-up for market direction. I’ve never been to the Alps but would luv to visit.
You could cuddle with Suzie and her husband? You cuddle bug you.
With 6,000+ boats in the Gulf scooping up oil, that is a big boost in employment.
The “B” team is in charge so it’s likely to turtle around today.
Mitch,
Are you near Fuquay-Varina? I’ve always liked that name but not a clue where it came from.
9/36/15 on SPY. Will it be a Humpty? 5min sez it’s a toss up.
George,
The two were separate towns that were merged as they were so close. There’s a Fuquay end of town and a Varina end of town.
Pretty close George.
Mitch,
I see, mystery solved. Like 5th-3rd Bank – I had to look that one up too: Two banks merged in Cincinnati, Ohio.
George,
Forget the TA crap. People who never made a
penny trading write great TA books. You made
them rich by buying their books.
Always trade in sync with the mood of the market.
Monitor the 5 day speed (points/day) of the SPX.
If the SPX is making lower lows on a reduced
speed, look for a turn. Same holds true for
highs.
You should be making 80 to 100%/ month on
your account. If you are not, you are trading
the wrong thing….use a rifle not a shotgun.
Suzie.
Good advice. How do you measure the speed? “X” amount of points, ATR, etc?
Thanks
George,
Do not know if the SPX will reach it…but
SPX 1000 provides good support. If(?)
it hits 1000 on reduced speed, I think
it will turn.
George,
Subtract the SPX close 5 days ago from the
close today. Divide by 5. If you can, plot it.
Is speed increasing or dropping off?
Rifle trading….
…Futures full or mini.
…SPX options
…OEX options
Everything is shotgun after that.
I’m off. Hope you folks in America
have a great Holiday.
Suzie,
Thanks!
Happy 4th of July everyone! Have a great weekend!
Thanks Joan. You too. Enjoy the cool weather.
Hi Joan! You too.
George, 2th,
thanks for those charts, not much pop today. Looks like the death cross takes precedence
Time to buy TBT.
Sam,
Yep, the SPY 60min triangle hasn’t played out yet; no break either way.
If SPY closes around this level or better, it will have a bullish “hairy bottom” on its daily chart. That’s where the candlesticks have long wicks reaching down. They’re not quite hammers, but they do indicate that intra-day dip-buyers have been handsomely rewarded.
Well, SPY flopped into the close so the “hairy bottom” is in doubt.
Matt,
Thanks for providing an excellent forum. Looking forward to next week.
You’re welcome, Mitch.