Over the past couple of years, ignoring the chatter about Iran’s nuclear program was the right course of action for traders. But maybe that is no longer the case. President Obama is making it a big deal now, and is supported by Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy (but not Dmitry Medvedev).
Another sign was the “hasty phone call after midnight” that Obama made to the Czech prime minister announcing the cancellation of the “missile shield.” Why so hasty? George Friedman thinks it was because events were in danger of spiraling out of control and Obama was desperately trying to get the Russians to go along with sanctions on Iran and head-off an Israeli strike on Iran.
(The Russians can supply all of Iran’s gasoline needs by rail, so a naval blockade of Iran’s gasoline imports could be defeated by the Russians.)
Here is Friedman’s conclusion:
“The Russians may be betting that Obama will fold. They made the same bet on John F. Kennedy. Obama reads the same reports that we do about how the Russians believe him to be weak and indecisive. And that is a formula for decisive — if imprudent — action.”
Friedman wrote that before Obama’s Iran offensive at the G20, so he predicted what Obama did, and that gives credence to his strategic assessment.
Larry, Yerk, George, and String,
Good news for you from a Gann expert. In
his latest forecast he looks for the SPX to
stay above 1027 and move to a new high.
The high would come Oct 6th (week 13). The
weekly correction would start then.
I have Sprint standing by just in case. If
he is right, my profits on this daily correction
will be the largest for me ever.
George,
In my system…if the SPX closes below 1035, we
have a weekly correction.
I have Sprint standing by in case one of you guys
wins the prize.
paula is it too late for me to also join in?
I said 1035 by oct 1st so that means correction begins week 12?
K,
The HIGH ends in week 12, the correction comes in week 13.
Geeze K, I can’t believe how accurate your analysis is. You need to package that thing!
I can see the month-end effect bringing the market up to that point. It usually ends about 4 days into the new month.
I’ve been using BBs on my charts the past couple of weeks. Trying to see if there is a benefit. I believe there is but still evaluating.
paula,
Thanks for the info. You said: “If he is right, my profits on this daily correction will be the largest for me ever.”
Does that mean trading the correction exclusively or to-date?
George,
In the past I never traded futures for daily
corrections. I was looking for the weekly
correction to start between weeks 10 and
14. When the correction started last week
I traded futures because I thought it was
the start of the weekly correction. I’m glad
I did. From now on I will trade futures.
I may have made a mistake in calling last
week the start of a weekly correction. If
I did, it will not be my first or last mistake.
But I learned something from it.
In case you and String or Larry and Yerk
wins, I have Sprint standing by ready to
split and ship the prize.
Hope you’re having a great weekend…enjoy.
George,
Do market makers really need to push market up? they have done for so many months. Now you all expect a rebound… what will happen? Down Baby Down…
The Unofficial Problem Bank List grew by 23 institutions to 459 and aggregate assets total $297.2 billion, up from $294 billion last week. During the week, we added 25 institutions to the list while we removed 2 because of failure.
Hmmmm Nice video on
Rep. Alan Grayson: “Has the Federal Reserve Ever Tried to Manipulate the Stock Market?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXmNpdYpfnk
Here is primary dealers list.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_current.html
a bit more. don’t know their credibility though
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14571.htm
Grayson is still a nut case. The Fed has been buying and selling bonds from, and to, the primary dealers for a hundred years.
K,
The guess was what week will the weekly correction
start…not what week will it be confirmed. Week 12
is out. In trading if you wait until something is
confirmed many times it’s over.
Paula
I would love to win, just because I always love to win. But, I cheated, so I don’t deserve to win. I just copied George, and took Yerk’s lead that 13 was obvious. So if by chance I do win, you can keep my half of the prize. Since you will not let me buy you a beer, it’s the least I can do.
I hope you make more money than the law allows on your current trade. You still know some stuff, while I sit here averaging into MO just to get a 7% divy. I am learning though, thanks to the group of traders here.
String
Paula,
didn’t really read through with great detail. You are right that once it confirms its usually over. 
Last week I was busy with school. sorry
I agree week 11 might have been the week.
String, following someone is not cheating
paula, will write tomorrow. too tired now, not 3am but getting close
as brief comment re Grayson – who is a coconut case: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/werewolf-dollars-clothing
Paula
Everyone here knows I don’t know poop from Apple Butter, but here is what I see on the charts so far. The last down turn that started at the end of August made it all the way to the 36MA. It shot through the 21DMA like butter. I use the 21DMA as my mid Bollinger Band. This down turn has bounced off the 21DMA. I agree with JG and yourself that a bounce is coming before another down turn. Like ALL TA folks, there is an if. If I am wrong, then the other scenario is down. Like in ” Down goes Joe Frazier”
String
String,
If you win, Sprint will ship your prize to you.
They are excellent at dividing things.
You’re number 1…give yourself a pat on
the back. It works. I know. When I was
young I was afraid to do anything. Julie
was into everything. Mother made me
wear a gold number 1 around my neck.
And it worked. In about 6 months I was
able to keep up with Julie.
Hope you have a great weekend…enjoy.
String,
A lot of experts use the SPX 21 DMA…happy
to see that you are one of them.
String,
A good analysis.
Paula
You and Julie, as well as George, and everyone else here have been a big help to me. George is into those short trades that I just can’t deal with. I can see them, but my emotions always interfere. The only way to make real money, is to go big. I am a son of a depression era Dad. He kept every spark plug we changed when I was a teenager. He always told me in the depression you couldn’t get these. These are worn, but they could be cleaned and used a lot better than nothing at all. I have aproblem with losing, and I know this is a losers game. I am getting better, and I owe a lot of it to You and the rest. You are a swing trader extraordinaire. Matt gives the map along with Phil and JG. You add the stats. You all are number one in my book.
String
Matt, Yerk.
Am I nuts for liking some of the things those guys say? Maybe I am lol
I know it’s irrelevant to many of you but some might be interested.
Forex Sentiment and Volume: Trends, Ideas and Strategies from the Experts
9/29/2009
http://bit.ly/3Tfi17
Heh CNBC might be for sale. Let’s buy it.
K,
If you read up on the Fed’s open-market operations, you will see that what Grayson was attacking was no more controversial than the pencil sharpening that goes on at the Fed. Grayson gets a lot of play because his audience simply has no idea what the Fed actually does.
Matt
String,
Here’s a quote from “The Master Swing Trader” by Alan Farley:
Matt
Thanks Matt,
Honestly I am just a schoolboy like Dressguard calls me. I’m slowly learning and I appreciate when You and others help out.
troubled asset ratio
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/banks-troubled-asset-ratio.html
Syring,
Thanks for your kind words…but don’t
sell yourself short…you are a winner.
paula,
Thanks for the clarification. You could very well be correct saying this is a weekly correction. I like the idea of using a different instrument to play the counter-action. I need to get more versified myself.
“deversified” got the late-nite fat-fingers.
K,
Market Makers and Specialists carry the purse strings indeed. I’m prepared for anything, it’s just that I, from a reasonability standpoint, don’t think it has moved up far enough to have another small crash – decent correction, yes.
In any event, I don’t let that influence my trading: I just sometimes like to know if I can guess what’s next and keep score of the times I’m correct (which is easier than keeping the losing score).
String,
Please excuse my misspelling of your name
in a prior post.
Buy a gold number 1 and wear it around
your neck.
Stringm,
When I started trading it took a couple of years to get my head around it. I got a severe case of “analysis paralysis” that lasted longer than I care to admit. It all came down to my not wanting to lose. The fact is that losing is part of the numbers game while the trader has an edge with a method and plan.
My method of Tres Amigas can be used on any time frames. I used it to invest my daughter’s 401K at the turn up from the bottom. I’ll use it to get her out. I applied it to the daily, weekly and monthly. Same method, different time frames. So it works on all levels.
I didn’t get her in at the exact bottom. Her account doesn’t have stops capabilities either. But it has done nothing but gain since she turned it over to me only because I’m moving it in and out of the market during these intermediate turns. I’m getting ready to take it out again if the signal is given. My mental stop is the entry price. If I am following the signals correctly, price should never come down to the entry price. If it does, I get out and wait for the next signal.
This differs from my scalps because price is allowed to drop below entry price as long as MACD histogram is positive and price respects certain MAs. Other than that, it’s the same method.
I look at it this way: I won’t lose as much as she would have, had she left it in the market – unless I do something really stupid.
I would beat myself up when I would lose and that would cause me to hesitate on the next trade. On and on…. Well, I finally realized I needed to be robotic and not worry about making money, merely follow the mechanics. After it proved itsself, I was hooked.
What we go through initially is necessary and I believe important. As Edison put it while trying to make a light bulb “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.”
You can do it and you will do it successfully. Patience and time. Money back guaranteed.
George,
How is the Tres amigas set up again?
Ive been on a brain overload as of late sorry or should I say analysis paralysis
Tres Amigas Signals:
The following description is in its “raw” form as there are several variations and nuances that can enhance both the number of signals and the length of the trade.
Buy when these three conditions are met:
1) Stochastic has bottomed near or below the 20 line and has turned up
2) The 3MA or price has crossed the 9MA
3) MACD histogram is 1 tick above the zero line OR the MACD crosses.
The objective is to align or sync these three together: Get them at their simultaneous turning points for not only a good risk/reward entry but also for better moves and gains.
Trade Management and Exit:
(Note: “3MA” can be substituted for “price”.)
Once a trade has been entered, and if price is below the 36MA, exit if price falls to or below the 9MA AND the MACD histogram tick goes below zero OR the MACD trendlines cross (basically the same thing but chart screens are different and one may work better than the other).
If price goes above the 36MA, the 36MA can then be used for the exit if price falls to or below the 36MA and the MACD histogram is 1 tick below zero OR the MACD trendlines cross. Another option is to switch to the next-higher time frame to manage the trade by using the 9MA exit rules described above.
These are “scalp” trades, therefore various methods may be used to gain quick profits and stay in the trade with a remaining portion. These are quick-exit tools:
- Stochastic kiss or cross
- Stochastic goes above then below the 80 line
- If below the 36MA, use a bump up against the 36MA resistance.
My favorite is to sell most shares at or above the 36MA and hold the remaining and follow the steps listed above to exit.
Overload indeed.
Three Amigos, coined by George, is the buy.
Three Amigas, coined by Matt, is the sell.
So in reality George meant to type Tres Amigos. Just trying to help out—and also thank George for taking the time to post in the middle of the night and for sharing his experiences, insights, and techniques with the board.
Maybe I confused everyone more. By “sell” I am not referring to George’s exit plans, but rather a potential shorting signal.
Matt, Paula, George
OK, I am recharged! I will buy me a Gold 11 Paula. I want to be double good. I have taken my motto plaque off the shelf and put it on my trading desk. It has been my motto for a long time. I don’t know who I stole it from, but it has been mine for a long time.
“Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derilicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent”
String
String,
It’s from Calvin Coolidge:
http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/2771.html
Matt
Matt
Thanks, I knew I had stolen it from someone. I didn’t cob the last line. Now I can add “Press On”
String
Haha, G20 Accomplished a LOT!!!
Iran test-fires short-range missiles
“We are going to respond to any military action in a crushing manner and it doesn’t make any difference which country or regime has launched the aggression,” state media quoted Salami as saying. He said the missiles successfully hit their targets.
Forget the Greenshoots
I originally called the three signals “Three Amigos” or “Three Friends”. Then I changed it to “Tres Amigos” and I believe Matt called it “Tres Amigas”.
Amigos is masculine, Amigas is feminine. If “Amigos” is used generically, it is normally “friend”.
Paula is correct, they can be used after a top is put in with reverse signals. Note that the time frame being used is important because if price’s relationship to the 9 and 36MAs.
Stringm,
Good for you. Keep searching and you’ll find your niche. I never worried about how long it would take me to get a handle on it, I just knew that if others were trading successfully, I could too. Maybe not like them, but I would find a way that suited me. That’s all that is needed.
Tres Cruzars:
Get a 1,5,15min of your favorite stock or two. (Note: “3MA can be substituted for “candle” in the descriptions.)
Look for this setup; 1min candle crosses above the 9 and 36MA; 5min candle crosses above the 9MA; and the 15min candle crosses above its 9MA. These are coming up from the bottom of the MAs.
The 1min will cycle within this move up, both the stochastic and MACD. Either the 1min or 5min can be swing-traded or hang on until the below exit signal is given.
Exit on the reverse signals – when the 1 and 5min turn down – i.e., when the 1min crosses the 36MA and 5min crosses its 9MA. Another exit method is to get out of each of the respective time frames as they cross their 36MA. So, you’d make 3 exits: This would require 1/3rd sells. Or, ride the 5min or 15min until they cross their 36MAs. Lots of options here to hang on. If short-scalping, just scalp the 1min.
This has a very high probability of success. The only drawback is it takes a while for it to set up but there will be at least one on each index when trading pairs. This moves slowly, so you can watch several stocks at a time. Often requires several hours for a setup some days but it pays off big because it catches bigger moves.
Another alternative is to use a 30min or 60min time frame as the higher time frame instead of the 15min. Again, it takes longer, but this is even better when waiting on a beaten down stock to recover.
Point is, it is highly reliable and profitable. Once out of the trade, don’t worry if it continues to go up or down, just wait on the next one to come along.
George,
Good advice and posts.
We try to read all of the research reports on
heart health. And I think the latest one will
interest you.
A doctor used a combination of meds and supplements
to reduce artery plaque. He found a combination that
reduced it by 15%…but when he added vitamin D to
the combination, plaque was reduced by 46%.
Be sure to take vitamin D3 (active form of vitamin D)
daily. Most experts recommend 2000 IU’s daily. Some
experts claim that vitamin D protects you against the
flu…flu comes in winter because people get less sun
…sun exposure produces vitamin D in the body.
I forgot the exact amount of time, but I think people
need 30 minutes of sun exposure daily without sun-
screen to produce an adequate amount of vitamin D.
Paula, Great advice!!! Maybe I wont need the flu vaccine after all.
K,
I don’t know if some of the experts are
correct or not. Best to play it safe.
George,
I came up with the name “Three Amigas” back at the June peak as a term for the inverse of your “Three Amigos”. Here is the post:
http://www.trivisonno.com/three-amigas-stalk-ndx
As you can see, your method worked like a charm there too.
Matt
String,
Buy and wear a gold number !.
Next Sunday I have to drive to the airport
and pick up Julie. She has been living high
on the hog off off Mother’s money. Mother
gave her an unlimited expense account. She
broke it the first day by flying first class to
Australia instead of coach.
I’ve been working her trading account 24/6
and have decided that she owes me 50%
of the profits I made for her.
Paula
I will stick to the 1 per your advice. I didn’t realize sun helped your body produce vitamin D. Maybe that is why I always feel so much better in the summer. I walk 7.5 miles a day and we have plenty of sun here in Texas. I tan real easy and get dark. Being half Italian does it I guess. I never have worn sunscreen. I tease people that use sunscreen by telling them it causes cancer. I feel a ton better these days after my weight loss. I hope Julie remembers how to trade. BTW could you ask your Mom if she would adopt me. I could use that unlimited expense account. I would fly coach too.
String
3Q 09 is K’s biggest quarter since 2006 130% revenue increase YoY
Looks like there isn’t ant recession going on
Paula,
Doc gave my mom prescriptive Vitamin D when her feet were feeling swollen 1.25MG pill once a week. the 2000IU comes down to 0.05mg a day * 30 days = 1.5mg a month.
I take fish oils, vitamin C, Magnesium (has helped some with the twitching i used to have a few months ago), and Vitamin B. now D will be added to that list. I feel like multivitamins are ripoffs because they don’t include decent doses.
But then again, everybody is different. Always appreciate all your help.
Dollar index fib confluences
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3535/3959106909_68a2c0e31f_o.jpg
Thanks to everyone for the insightful comments. K, congratulations!
George re bollinger bands. If the 15/30/60 all are outside the bb wait until the 15min paints the first reversal bar especially if it goes back in the bbands and watch the stochs. Then usually a reversal starts, if it gets beaten back by the higher timeframes you can get out with stops b/e and wait until the next reversal. The 15min move usually is a flag on the higher frames.
Yerk
Are you referring to upper BB, or lower, or both ways work the same?
String
String.
U think when it hits higher bands and goes out it’s more likely to come back down from what i’ve seen.
When it goes lower out of bands sometimes it comes back but others it keeps going down while staying outside.
just saying what i’ve observed will await for Yerk’s opinion
K
I think I jumped into the middle of a conversation and didn’t know what Yerk was talking about. I have seen it go both ways. In a really trending market it can walk the bands either direction. You sit there and think this can’t go lower, or higher, but it does. Most times the bands suck it back in. Knowing what Yerk is talking about will help.
String
junglegirl, the orcale says expectation next week up then down. If 9550.92 holds new highs – 10495 in play.
String,
I too didn’t pull up a chart or 2 to test it out.
Gloomy, rainy weather doesn’t help brain focus much. All I see out the window is grey.
When i fire up my TOS and SD in a few hours I will test Yerk’s suggestion.
String, K, works both ways, as it can be trending up or down. If the trend is strong the higher time frames maybe only retrace until the 20ma line and then the trend resumes again. Have a look at /es Friday 12am-1am on the time frames. Drop stops, some wiggling around, double bottom and the stochs have bottomed on all frames in the process. The last spike down on the 15min is already contained by the bb. If you enter there with a stop you might get stopped out but this set-up is pretty reliable from what I’ve seen. No hard rules as George has, but maybe you can find some. Never jump against the tide, wait until the 15 shows loss of momentum and the stochs turn. Hope this helps.
I have found a neato TOS indicator though.
check /ES daily
Indicators are MACD and Doublesmoothedstochastic. along with 36EMA 3MA and 9MA
WHen price is at or below 36MA and macd is negative and DSS(my abbreviation) is below 2 then it’s a sell. Check this around 9/1/2008
When MACD is 1bar green, and MA’s cross up (here we use 3MA and 9MA) and DSS is emerging above -2 (not +2 in this case..) then is buy.
(Check this at the march low)
It aint perfect and maybe this just fit in well but I will test it with others
Current conditions stand as… 3 crossed below 9 but still above 36. MACD is 1 red bar down and DSS is 1.83 aka below 2
just using macd and DSS i would sell if 3 and 9 were used as exits but then we would have many fakeouts.
anyways there went my useless typing I hope it helps String to test something new since I still haven’t shared my SuperK strategy
paula, my best glassball says oct 12/13th 1120-30. Too lazy to look up which week is that – send George and String the prize as they deserve it. I won’t like futures 1030 to be breached. Dancing on thin ice here.
Will study you posts since Friday. It seems to be your turn now to go on vacation. Put the top in and leave.
1051 is in my opinion a strong level on the SPX. SPX is stuck between 1051 and 1042 so about 10 point box. which way it breaks is something to watch…
My New Blog Post: $SPX Stuck in a 9 point range..Which way will it Break? http://bit.ly/AHj6P
K,
You are 100% right about multi’s. They
throw a little of everything in…none is
the proper dose…and charge a fortune.
The only multi I found worth taking is
AOR’s ortho-core…6 caps/day…runs
around $40/month wholesale.
Paula,
in your opinion. is it worth taking let’s say.
what I take above (C,D,B, Magnesium, Fishoil) in more proper doses? (All in all ~6 pills)
or take the AOR multi? I am willing to give it a shot though even at $40+ wholesale.
I currently barely take any Vitamin D so today picked up 100 of 2000IU.
AOR has 1000IU from what I see but should be just fine.
I love how on weekends and market closes we talk about other things in life and help each other out then too.
Yerk,
All of you deserve a prize…but if the SPX
does not go above 1080, the weekly
correction started last week. The number
of down weeks will be short…my guess
is a 16-17 week cycle.
Agree with your SPX 1100 plus for the
next cycle. I think 1122 would be a 50%
correction and is a good number to keep
your eye on.
K,
What you’re taking is great. The AOR multi
is made in Canada and they try to keep up
with the latest research. It has other vitamins
and minerals that will help you.
Thanks Paula!
I don’t like the multi’s sold here that are just name brands and they charge outrageous costs for the amount of portions they brew up.
on a side note in the markets
/ES support is 1031 next and 1051 is resistance so SPX 9pt box. while futures have a 20pt box.
K,
You should not take vitamin E unless it
is the true vitamin E. Ortho-core has
the true vitamin E. Cureself.com sells
ortho-core for around $49 CAD…free shippimg
for orders over $100. True vitamin E
will help your cholesterol numbers.
The major producer of cholesterol in
your body is your liver. Take care of
your liver.
K,
Thanks for the market numbers.
Take care…enjoy.
I almost killed my liver 2 years ago… as the saying goes (Beer Before Liquor, never been sicker) well I hope my liver is still surviving.
I found AOR for $49.98 shipped at bodybuilding.com and i’ve ordered from there before. I think I will drop $50 and give AOR a shot.
I always appreciate your advice/opinion in the markets as well as other areas.
vitamins A D E and K are fat soluble….they can lead to toxicity as they are stored in fat….B vitamins are water soluble but can cause toxicity…dont overindulge http://www.acu-cell.com/bx2.html
Unofficial daily intake recommended by many
researchers for adults living in the Northern
Hemisphere is 1,000 to 2,000 UI (25-50mcg)
of Vitamin D3 per day.
We’re taking D3 phil so I think it should be ok.
also ladies and germs.
if you remember friday I talked about /ES being able to be to come back on top of 1038.65 which is where 2 fibs confluence…
well it’s currently at 1038.75 and if it doesn’t keep itself from falling then 1038.65 to 1040.84 will be MAJOR resistance for any recovery.
“admin Says:
September 27th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
George,
I came up with the name “Three Amigas” back at the June peak as a term for the inverse of your “Three Amigos”.
Matt,
Thanks for clearing that up. Junglegirl is correct then,
Three Amigos, coined by George, is the buy.
Three Amigas, coined by Matt, is the sell.
Now we know that “Amigos” is buy, “Amigas” is sell. Samey same, Mr & Ms Market.
Good BB discussion, thanks Yerk.
K,
Is that Doublesmoothedstochastic something that can be programmed into SD?
George, no idea. but i think you can use TOS demo can’t you?
I mean String can try here is the calculations
http://www.iqbroker.com/ViewResource.aspx?ID=Indicator_1161&Name=Double_Smoothed_Stochastic
holy crap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
from 1.4725 to 1.4587 in 2hrs the euro went!!!
CRAPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
K,
Thanks. I take it CRAPPPPPP is bad…
George,
Craaap is scary but hey I want dollar going UUP
those options will start flying through the roof if we have a few days or weeks of euro selloff
The Federal Reserve is going to do what? “…purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt.”
This monopoly game is going to have a happy ending for financial institutions.
K,
Looks like the dollar is dead dude. UUP is not a direction in Bernake’s vocabulary.
That’s fine Man,
As long as I can get out of RIMM without getting umm you know RIMM..ed LOL