New Home Sales
Updated through the most-recent data released on August 26, 2008.
The Current Situation
This has been the worst housing recession as far back as the Census Bureau has data. While it is fashionable to say that housing is not such a large part of the economy any more, we have seen that it is indeed still a huge factor - especially for the financial system.
Next Update
The Census Bureau will release its next estimate at 10am EST on Thursday, September 25, 2008.
About the Data
On or around the 26th of each month, the Census Bureau publishes an estimate of how many new houses will be sold this year. I plug that number into the 2008 bar on the second chart, and then update the growth percentage on the top chart.
I only chart the current estimate. While the Census Bureau makes a new estimate each month, I don’t think charting their guesses month-by-month is meaningful. If this were an actual count of home sales, that would be different, but nobody has such data. The country is too big, and homebuilders too many, to ever get an actual count in a timely fashion, if ever.
Disclosure
I am not long or short the home-builders. I wouldn’t be a opposed to picking up some XHB when the economy stabilizes though. It might be good for a triple coming out of a recession.
May 27th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
[...] cited the Census Bureau’s estimate of home sales once again. The last time he did that, he got [...]