Comments on: No Bottom for XLF http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf Bear Market Growls Until January 2010 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 09:55:11 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Matt Trivisonno’s Blog » Blog Archive » Who Wants to Go Long in Front of the Jobs Report? http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf#comment-1523 Matt Trivisonno’s Blog » Blog Archive » Who Wants to Go Long in Front of the Jobs Report? Tue, 01 Jul 2008 22:18:38 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=154#comment-1523 [...] low was met with popping champaign corks in the bull camp. So, let me warn the bulls, yet again, as I did before the XLF flopped over: “The birth of a lasting rally is met by skepticism, not jubilation in the bull [...] [...] low was met with popping champaign corks in the bull camp. So, let me warn the bulls, yet again, as I did before the XLF flopped over: “The birth of a lasting rally is met by skepticism, not jubilation in the bull [...]

]]> By: Matt Trivisonno’s Blog » Blog Archive » Matt 1, Doug Kass 0 http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf#comment-1314 Matt Trivisonno’s Blog » Blog Archive » Matt 1, Doug Kass 0 Sat, 21 Jun 2008 20:39:30 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=154#comment-1314 [...] week, I posted my “No Bottom for XLF” piece where I correctly predicted that XLF’s March low would not hold. If you look in [...] [...] week, I posted my “No Bottom for XLF” piece where I correctly predicted that XLF’s March low would not hold. If you look in [...]

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf#comment-1122 admin Mon, 16 Jun 2008 14:04:30 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=154#comment-1122 Hi Dressguard, Mr. Kass will be OK; after all, he knows about my blog now! All kidding aside, Kass is an ace short-seller, and will wind up thriving in this bear market eventually. The market will abound with fantastic short opportunities for a long time to come, and Kass knows exactly how to play in such an environment. Matt Hi Dressguard,

Mr. Kass will be OK; after all, he knows about my blog now!

All kidding aside, Kass is an ace short-seller, and will wind up thriving in this bear market eventually. The market will abound with fantastic short opportunities for a long time to come, and Kass knows exactly how to play in such an environment.

Matt

]]> By: Dressguard http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf#comment-1119 Dressguard Mon, 16 Jun 2008 06:56:30 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=154#comment-1119 Hi Matt, Doug lost a lot of money the last days. So don't be so merciless with him. ;-) Hi Matt,

Doug lost a lot of money the last days. So don’t be so merciless with him. ;-)

]]> By: admin http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf#comment-1117 admin Mon, 16 Jun 2008 05:38:28 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=154#comment-1117 Hi Doug, 1) I didn't say XLF could not rally. In fact, in my last paragraph I said that I was looking for the rally to continue and am planning to short into it. I did say that the support will not hold though, and maybe I am "convicted" as you say, but with the wheels coming off of the economy and the banking system, I am sleeping soundly at night. I also didn't say you were cheer-leading, but rather was commenting on your upbeat emotional state. Perhaps you don't use trader-sentiment in your approach either. 2) Yes indeed. I am aware of your record and it has been fantastic. However, as an ace short-selling bear, you should be reveling in this bear market, which is nowhere near ending. Why fight it? Why not continue to do what you do best? If you must be long something, why not a nice railroad stock? 3) I thought that your tone was derisive. Maybe I got it wrong. I went back and searched for the comment in Columnist Conversation, but couldn't find it (though the RM search thing is pretty horrible). Did you take the comment down? Not there's anything wrong with that. Also, I am curious as to why any fundamental analyst would trust the data being put out by financial companies these days. These firms have been telling some tall tales, no? 4) Yes, I understand that your view is at odds with Whitney's. I wish you luck with C, but I think there are lots easier ways to make money in a bear market that features a smoking crater where the banking system used to be. 5) I have made an absurdly huge return recently using my technical analysis. <a href="http://www.trivisonno.com/wedge-baby-all-growed-up" rel="nofollow">I correctly predicted</a>, and bet heavily upon, the demise of this recent bear-market rally. 6) Ad hominem? Did Cramer not recommend SHLD and GS at their peaks? Do you have a profit on your C position? However, I did play back your mention of Whitney on Kudlow Friday night (30:35 into the show), and you were not sneering or derisive, so I apologize for that, but you were criticizing her. You can't deny that you have been taking her on, right? Good luck this week, Matt Hi Doug,

1) I didn’t say XLF could not rally. In fact, in my last paragraph I said that I was looking for the rally to continue and am planning to short into it. I did say that the support will not hold though, and maybe I am “convicted” as you say, but with the wheels coming off of the economy and the banking system, I am sleeping soundly at night. I also didn’t say you were cheer-leading, but rather was commenting on your upbeat emotional state. Perhaps you don’t use trader-sentiment in your approach either.

2) Yes indeed. I am aware of your record and it has been fantastic. However, as an ace short-selling bear, you should be reveling in this bear market, which is nowhere near ending. Why fight it? Why not continue to do what you do best? If you must be long something, why not a nice railroad stock?

3) I thought that your tone was derisive. Maybe I got it wrong. I went back and searched for the comment in Columnist Conversation, but couldn’t find it (though the RM search thing is pretty horrible). Did you take the comment down? Not there’s anything wrong with that. Also, I am curious as to why any fundamental analyst would trust the data being put out by financial companies these days. These firms have been telling some tall tales, no?

4) Yes, I understand that your view is at odds with Whitney’s. I wish you luck with C, but I think there are lots easier ways to make money in a bear market that features a smoking crater where the banking system used to be.

5) I have made an absurdly huge return recently using my technical analysis. I correctly predicted, and bet heavily upon, the demise of this recent bear-market rally.

6) Ad hominem? Did Cramer not recommend SHLD and GS at their peaks? Do you have a profit on your C position? However, I did play back your mention of Whitney on Kudlow Friday night (30:35 into the show), and you were not sneering or derisive, so I apologize for that, but you were criticizing her. You can’t deny that you have been taking her on, right?

Good luck this week,
Matt

]]> By: Doug Kass http://www.trivisonno.com/no-bottom-for-xlf#comment-1105 Doug Kass Sun, 15 Jun 2008 23:09:36 +0000 http://www.trivisonno.com/?p=154#comment-1105 1. I dont cheerlead - I analyze. My analysis is sometimes right and sometimes wrong- unlike your convicted "no chance" that XLF can rally. 2. I have been short financials for two years before going long. 3. I believe my spreadsheets on Citigroup are more accurate that Meredith Whitney's. I did not "sneer" at her work. 4. I dont believe C will cut its dividend - rather cashflows (using reasonable assumptions) suggest that C can modestly RAISE its dividend in 2009 and 2010. By contrast Meredith thinks C will eliminate its dividend. 5. Your rationale against the banks seems to be totally based on technical analysis - which is not my approach (mine is fundamental). 6. Ad hominem attacks, like yours on myself and Cramer are inexcusable and show little class. 7. Doug Kass Seabreeze Partners 1. I dont cheerlead - I analyze. My analysis is sometimes right and sometimes wrong- unlike your convicted “no chance” that XLF can rally.
2. I have been short financials for two years before going long.
3. I believe my spreadsheets on Citigroup are more accurate that Meredith Whitney’s. I did not “sneer” at her work.
4. I dont believe C will cut its dividend - rather cashflows (using reasonable assumptions) suggest that C can modestly RAISE its dividend in 2009 and 2010. By contrast Meredith thinks C will eliminate its dividend.
5. Your rationale against the banks seems to be totally based on technical analysis - which is not my approach (mine is fundamental).
6. Ad hominem attacks, like yours on myself and Cramer are inexcusable and show little class.
7.

Doug Kass
Seabreeze Partners

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