“Sharp Deceleration” in Jobs
This morning’s ADP report surprised to the upside, but it’s still not good news. From the report:
A research firm has told me via email that my withholding data is off because of a “calendar quirk.” I don’t buy it. I have studied the calendar and the data very closely. I see the same “sharp deceleration” that ADP sees.
April 2nd, 2008 at 1:40 pm
What’s your opinion on this commentary?
“TrimTabs bases this relatively cheerful assessment on an analysis of daily income tax withholdings from the U.S. Treasury. According to Madeline Schnapp, director of macroeconomic research at TrimTabs, withholdings during March were 4.1% higher than one year ago.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/trimtabs-says-economy-added-jobs/story.aspx?guid=%7B77FAFE81%2D4F3B%2D4C36%2DB0A5%2D88F6D9641CBE%7D
Isn’t that the same data you are using?
April 2nd, 2008 at 2:13 pm
Hi David,
Yes, it is the same data. I am a fan of TrimTabs’s liquidity approach, and I wouldn’t argue with the 4.1% number too much. However, it is a weak number within a deteriorating trend. This is the wrong data to use when writing an optimistic piece.
Matt