SPX Bear Flag

This is a daily SPX chart of closing prices. Thursday’s rally is starting to look like a bear flag (red lines on chart). If that proves to be the correct interpretation, a 100% completion of the pattern (blue line) implies a test of the October 2 intra-day low at 1020 at some point within the next few days.

SPX-Bear-Flag-10-30-09

49 Responses to “SPX Bear Flag”

  1. George says:

    Stringm,

    I started to put a jar of peanuts in the picture but I didn’t want to make everyone hungry.

  2. Stringm says:

    George

    How do you use that tinypic thing, but I can’t seem to come up with a url like the one you posted. I have a long string of html code. Didn’t want to post it without knowing what it would do.

    String

  3. Stringm says:

    Julie

    Help me understand the rule of thumb you posted. Dow ended 9712 so it is 971. SPX is 1036. So is the rule of thumb that the SPX has more to fall?

    String

  4. scotty says:

    Matt if we don’t break 1018-1020 do we rally back up to 1070?

  5. K says:

    scotty,
    1060 is the new resistance now

    The company plans to file for bankruptcy in New York as soon as Sunday night or early Monday, said people familiar with the matter. CIT is poised to enter bankruptcy with enough creditor support to approve its reorganization plan and shorten its stay in Chapter 11 …

  6. George says:

    Stringm,

    I put those pictures on a CD and went to tinypic, it had a “browse” button then I picked the picture I wanted and it uploaded it. Use the last URL they give so there is a direct link.

  7. George says:

    Tinypic gives I belive 4 different ways to access the pic that’s uploaded. Use the bottom one.

  8. K says:

    AMAZING VIX UP 24%!!!!!!!!

  9. George says:

    K,

    That was scary!

  10. K says:

    I’m the oracle eh?
    Someone wants to dump his broker and have me manage his 50k+ lol

    I gotta get to writing basic contract saying I want 20% of profits and i will charge nothing if i lose your money.

    his current broker charges 1% of the account value.

  11. K says:

    something funny resisted to post during trading hours
    how google came out with their chrome logo

    http://www.businesspundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/chrome-vs-microsoft.jpg

  12. admin says:

    K,

    The K from a year ago would be buying Apple now. But the new K has been killing it on the short side, going with the flow instead of against it. What do you think is the factor that helped you make that evolution?

    Matt

  13. George says:

    I’m leaving Sunday for the Outer Banks (OBX), N.C. for a week-long fishing trip. A bunch of guys, mostly relatives, staying in a nice house near Kitty Hawk.

    The problem is, I don’t like to fish. I used to but it just isn’t fun for me now. So I’m taking two laptops and you know what I’ll be doing! Yep,,, and if I get hog-tied to go on the pier to watch them pull a couple in, I have my iPhone to keep tabs of the market and trade.

    Besides, I don’t eat dead fish.

  14. scotty says:

    K can you give me a little feed back on the S&P’s

  15. Stringm says:

    George

    I’ll make a stab at this to show how close we are to being twins. First should be full view with window unit and space heater and putters. Second is close up of monitors.

    http://i33.tinypic.com/idi3qr.jpg

    http://i35.tinypic.com/34gsgfk.jpg

    String

  16. K says:

    Matt,
    A Goldman Insider. ;)

    I’ve been trading since sept 2007. In the beginning it was all buy and hold. Heck I bought ORCL, and GOOG and made cash (beginner’s luck).

    Right as market topped I went into college. for a year I traded like a lost sheep trading on WSJ news and discussion board trash tips.

    I then got sick of being a loser, (greed and fear). Joined school fund 2nd semester of freshman year. Unknowingly chose the role of an economic reporter and thanks to my previous geek skills was able to start digging a goldmine and creating macro economic presentations. They helped me a lot along with our fund.

    From then till about december of 2008 I learned a lot on technical analysis. december i opened my forex account and started exploring new worlds. Months later i was wiped out (1k). Took forex break and started back focusing on equities. Watched all steve nison candlestick seminars (google it) and since then candlestick patterns began to burn into my brain.

    Going into options while on vacation this summer was another milestone…
    Final straw was selling short an AIG Call and losing $1k same day (~30-40% of my total portfolio lol). that desensitized me somewhat to looking at large negative numbers and not running into a wall to escape.

    Anyways after running into the steaming train a few times I became “super”(man)K so at that point I gained the ability to crush the trains and stop them where i wanted them. (remember oct 1 1035 call, and today’s 1037 call for recent ones)

    Bottom line,
    I started using a winner’s strategy by skimming through blogs for news, participating here, using long lost indicators (those forgotten by the news after 2008 crash such as TED spread), trendlines, moving averages, pivots, and currency correlations. Of course I think I can psychologically handle more pain now when i lost $100-200 a day I don’t freak out.

    I have gained respect from coworkers, other people, chair of finance, my investing oriented friends and such (not being cocky). I think I will start posting more on my blog about things such as daily recaps of the grains of salt, my own take, the weekly presentations I make for our school etc.

    Thanks to all Here for their help I don’t want to name names because there are so many but I will name what I can remember anyways.

    Matt, George, Stringm, Phil, Charlie, JG, Julie, Paula, Randall, After, Scotty, Jim, 2thfixr and the other sporiadic and frequent posters (although I’m sure I also get award for the most comments lol!)

    Is that any help? Further questions require 0.25% of your total account value!

  17. K says:

    Here’s my setup, crappy quality but bb sucks in low light lol
    http://i34.tinypic.com/1zdlkzl.jpg

  18. admin says:

    K,

    Learning to trade really is a trial-by-fire – even for very smart, accomplished people.

    Matt

  19. K says:

    Matt,
    Not losing real money will get you nowhere. The 2 of my friends I introduced to trading have done better than me since march but now when tide turns and there is no longer a rally like march/october they will lose because they took easy way out of buy and hold.

    Smart people lose the most money in the market. Common sense and brains get you nowhere in wall st but take your money!

  20. Stringm says:

    George/K

    This tinypic thing is fun, and is it OK Matt? Since it is the weekend.
    Out my backdoor and the Pavillion I built 3 years ago when my back worked.
    http://tinypic.com/r/335b3oj/4

    http://tinypic.com/r/6pwyfr/4

    String

  21. K says:

    Heh String! lucky you got pool but must be pain to maintain.

  22. K says:

    Where are these bank failures? !!

  23. Stringm says:

    K

    The wife wanted it for the baby girl, so she maintains it, I only help at times. It is not that bad though, however leaves are a killer.

    String

  24. admin says:

    No problem, String.

  25. K says:

    U.S. set to seize FBOP, congressmen say

    Federal regulators are expected to seize Friday night the banks owned by Oak Park-based FBOP Corp., the troubled owner of Park National Bank of Chicago and eight other U.S. banks, people familiar with the situation say.

    and

    Pacific National Bank Going to FDIC

    San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco commercial real estate industry. … The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was expected to take control as early as this afternoon. … The bank … reported assets of $2.1 billion

  26. K says:

    Ted Up 1.72% on days it would usually go down. not good!

  27. George says:

    Stringm, K, nice setups.

  28. George says:

    K,

    I broke my piggy bank does that count?

  29. K says:

    No George,
    Wanna give me some money? :P
    I hate begging people for things :)

    did you notice in my setup the monitors have no stands? ;) I went all out and got a dual monitor stand so i can raise and lower them as desired. :P $250 it cost me the bloody thing!

  30. George says:

    Yes, at first I thought they were wall mounted. Nice.

    My office is rather cluttered due to the home improvements here and I’ll soon get it back into order and have my monitors closer together.

    I have one more monitor I’m going to add. I’ll hook it to my other laptop that has Scottrade. I have a scheme to doing this: I will be day-trading but on a longer timeframe scale like the 5min on up. That way it will be easier to trade multiple stocks due to their slower movement.

  31. George says:

    Matt, Stringm and K, along with any others that automate, I have been working on the problem of ranging. One thing I’ve noticed is that if price is under the 15min 36MA, then the stochastic (kiss, cross or 80) should be used to exit on the 1min; if price is over the 15min 36MA, then the MACD cross can be used. This solves the problem of using MACD crosses where it crosses at a lower price from entry as well as which exit to use overall.

    Going up a notch, the 15min and 60min work well together doing the same thing. The time frames must be far apart because it doesn’t work as well with like the 1min and 5min or other closely spaced time frames.

    Check it out and see what you think.

    Getting there.

  32. K says:

    I no longer automate :P
    SuperK has been turned off for over a week :)

  33. Julie says:

    String,
    Sorry, Paula is a better writer than me. Take
    the daily DOW gain or loss and divide it by
    10. If the SPX gain or loss exceeds that
    number, look for the trend to continue.
    If it does not, look for a trend change.
    Old traders use this to decide if they
    should start thinking about closing their
    swing trade positions.

  34. George says:

    Fewer bank failures each week K. You’re going to have withdrawal symptoms when it reaches zeroes.

  35. George says:

    Stringm,

    That pavillion is awesome. You have some talent there dude. I couldn’t build a dog house.

  36. Stringm says:

    George

    Thanks, It was about 2 months of labor, but it has served the family well. The school has faculty, and sports team parties here, the church youth and family night parties, as well as familiy reunions. It has been enjoyable. I can smoke a mean chicken on that pit you see in the pic. I need that missteak recipe you talked about too.

    String

  37. admin says:

    George,

    What I mean about “trending vs. ranging” is how do you predict when a period of ranging will begin? In the chart that you posted back here:

    http://www.trivisonno.com/georges-triangle#comment-49280

    …SDS ranged for two hours. If you were looking at your SDS chart at 1:33pm, how could you tell that the uptrend was done and SDS would commence ranging? I don’t know if there is an answer to that question, but if there is, it would be hugely profitable.

    Matt

  38. K says:

    Fewer bank failures George?
    2-3 weeks ago it was 2-3 then 1 then 6 now 9 LOL

    :D

  39. K says:

    The 115 bank failures this year compare with 25 last year and three in 2007.

    The number of banks on the FDIC’s confidential “problem list” jumped to 416 at the end of June from 305 in the first quarter. That’s the most since June 1994. About 13 percent of banks on the list generally end up failing, according to the FDIC.

  40. Julie says:

    String,
    Last week the SPX weekly chart had a key reversal…
    …made a higher high than the week before and
    closed below the close of the week before. And
    now the SPX monthly chart has a key reversal…
    SPX made a higher high above the prior month
    and closed below the close of the prior month.
    The last SPX weekly correction took the SPX to
    the 1019 area. If this correction does the same, keep
    your eye on the test results of that prior low. If
    successful, you have a double bottom. If it fails, the
    door to 980 opens…and one could build a case for
    930.
    You are a master builder (number 1). Hope you have
    a great pain-free weekend. Best wishes from all of
    us.

  41. Julie says:

    K,
    Based on the number of blogs you read and
    great links that you post, Paula wants to know
    how you ever have time to study…and attend
    class…plus homework…quite a workload…
    kudos.

  42. Mitch says:

    String,

    you’ve constructed a mini rendition of the Babylonian Gardens right there in your Texas back yard. I’m inspired!

  43. 'K says:

    Julie,
    I’ve learned to skim blogs, 3 years expertise of reading stuff has caused me to know worthy info at first sight.
    School I make time somehow. Only get 5-6hrs of sleep.

    Getting rid of facebook has been the biggest help and instead of degrading my relationship with others it has enhanced it.

    this site is my facebook now but instead of wasting time it makes me smarter and to have meet amazing people (so far virtually) all over the world who respect eachother makes things great.

    Hope Paula, grandfather and you are doing well.