On Thursday night in the comments, I said that SPY looked like it was in a bull-flag pattern. Here is what I was talking about (click chart to enlarge):
The Fibonacci price extension projected up to 116, but SPY hit resistance at its January 20th gap. Now look at the big red volume bar from this afternoon’s mini panic. That was a lot of selling, and may be a sign that this pattern is played out. What do you think?
Ipad killer George?
http://www.spike.com/video/is-hps-flash-playing/3355617
K,
I don’t know if that is a killer but nice to have something that will play flash. Apple won’t budge on that.
It will be interesting to see if Apple can kill off Flash. Steve Jobs sez that Flash is buggy and responsible for lots of Macintosh crashing, and is trying hard to keep it from infecting the iPhone/iPad:
http://www.cringely.com/2010/02/no-flash-in-the-pad/
I agree it is buggy and even crashes on windows but if the need is there why not let people decide with an enable/disable option?
i guess we’ll use silverlight instead. LOL
“Let people decide” is not the kind of thing found inside the head of Steve Jobs.
You’re absolutely right Matt.
Buy into new moon.
We’re on the moon Larry.
Hmmm, I thought I posted an entry about the SPY bull flag.
Anyway, per the link to the definition, it looks like the bull flag requirement has been satisfied, however, I see nothing ‘wrong’ about SPY’s ability to continue up to at least the 78.60% area. After all, it needs some kind of target.
MOO/DOO
http://i41.tinypic.com/x58kk3.jpg
SPY monthly: Rock and Hard Place.
SPY monthly is up against its 36MA resistance. It has respected its 9MA during this advance.
At some point, I need to take my daughter’s funds and put them into the money market. I ‘think’ I know what I’m going to do but I haven’t settled on anything concrete yet. But I’ll be watching the weekly to see how it behaves.
http://i41.tinypic.com/11qjv5i.jpg
Another chart: SPY weekly has a small double top. This is similar to the double top the 5min had yesterday (second chart). A break above or below is good MOJO!
http://i39.tinypic.com/b7j7kj.jpg
Yesterday’s 5min chart:
http://i42.tinypic.com/2vhtcua.jpg
The “rock and hard place” was about SPY’s price on the weekly being between the 9MA and 36MA. Ping pong time.
Phil
I am glad we had that conversation about that particular CUSIP. As it turns out I still had a Schwab account with a zero balance. I called them and they reset my password. I went in this morning and pulled the same CUSIP on TD and Schwab, Schwab was cheaper. I called TD and they gave me all kinds of reasons why, which did not make sense. They gave me numbers over the phone that did not even match what was online. All of their quotes were higher. Told me there was no way to compare the two because prices were constantly changing. Bottoml line all the changing prices were higher than Schwab.
String
Will SKF become a teenager today? If it does, it is destined for the single digits. And just think – at one time it was 300 years old. The curious case of SKF.
Stringm,
I like Phil’s deal – no broker charge for their stocks. My broker has almost doubled their commission.
Nearing tops on SPY. I feel 78% in its future.
Nice move on BBT. BKX in general has been moving up nicely.
Will we have panic-buying today or tomorrow?
Larry,
There could be some level where panic buying would come in but I’m not sure where that would be or what technical indicator would cause that. Financials stepping up to the plate has helped.
I was thinking panic selling, not buying anyway. Just shows how differently folks think.
SPY hit Matt’s 78.60% and slightly above and is now backing off. Negative divergence on the 1min MACD and possibly on the 15min MACD which hasn’t completed its cycle yet.
SPY’s next target would be $116.03 on Matt’s chart. Maybe some consolidation first, then another try.
Hmmm, wish I had a map of where stops are placed. Short stops would cause a panic buying spree. Maybe that’s what we need to find out.
Conversely, a cascade of stops for the longs could create a huge move down.
It’s simple: Buy every SPY bull flag when it backs up to the 36MA and sell .10c to .20c later or when it backs down to the 9MA. OR, hang with the 5min MACD – OR BOTH.
Only the last one will fail. By then the register will be full.
GEORGE…i am going to sell all SCHX bought on yest late fade when spx tests top…..maybe buy more bonds then STRING…..ten years though …
STRING just bought some 9 year coupon treasuries…my 5.75% cert of deposit is coming due friday… put 1/3 of it in now….maybe i will get some ZEROES if they go over 5%….its close now
SPY is already at NEW HIGHS
Phil,
Nice. SPY showing a little weakness here after trying Matt’s 78% again. Still strong though except for those divergences and they don’t always work out on the lower time frames.
Divergences on multiple timeframes simultaneously are good.
At some point, I need to take my daughter’s funds and put them into the money market……>>>>>>>GEORGE….remember money market gov guarantee has expired i think since sept…make sure it is FDIC insured
I’d luv to see these inverse go to rock-bottom. There won’t be any of this froggy snail moves when they reverse.
Phil,
Thanks for the heads-up. She most certainly meets the FDIC requirement. I forgot about that expiration.
SPY forming another bull flag… MACDs continually lower. This may be the one that fails.
Phil
I am filling out forms to transfer to Schwab. Probably do half my account for now.
String
string..i am quite satisfied with schwab….plus FREE schwab etf trades
Phil,
I may go that route too. How is their trading platform: Fast, reliable, good confirmation?
george…i am very happy with the prices and info..plus i negotiated a lowe commision on paid trades than is advertised…try to squeeze them guys..i am thinking of asking for even more discount…until its all FREE!!!!
Phil,George
They have 150 free trades the first 3 months.
String
Phil,
Thanks. That’s what I wanted to hear. My broker won’t negotiate anything. Their system is fast placing orders but confirmation is terrible at times. Not good for scalping!
SPY sitting on 15min 36MA support.
trying for tlt, half of previous position, @ 89.26
Watch what you say today, it will be watched closely by millions. Matt has made “The Big Picture” again.
String
not filled yet on tlt, keeping bid @ 89.26
Matt’s going to be on CNBC?
GEORGE…when i place a stock order … if i do not see it confirmed in 2 seconds then something is wrong….bonds take longer string
Matt
Your caveat about the same pattern, but no building bubble to push it up seems right on. I know for a fact that the stimulus plan created a couple of temporary jobs in every school district in Texas. They will be going away at the end of the next school year. The states budgets don’t suggest they will be adding a bunch of folks either. Maybe we will start a hire an American, and not an India call center stimulus.
String
HI EVERYBODY!
Scalps-Я-Us
Matt
Let us know how many more hits you get today!
String
bias up. 1125-30 support. 1150 potential reversal, if broken watch out.
Phil,
That’s a fast confirmation. Mine takes longer in normal mode and several times it has taken 5min to a couple of hours.
RATS….i wanted to sell GLD when it overlappec
SPY now resting on 30min 36MA.
FELL asleep at the switch…now crashing in a C wave down…
SPY will hit a double bottom 5min at $114.10 if it can’t bounce here.
BOUGHT back all SCHX sold at almost top tick this am….will dump it all again at test of top
This is where SPY made its stand at the previous reversal/correction. These have only been stochastic reversals on the 30min and not a MACD reversal/correction, which has been steadily moving down toward the zero line.
GEORGE…i am using market orders or limit orders near the ask…maybe thats why its 2 seconds to fill
Phil,
What time frame are you trading? SCHX is making some nice intraday moves.
SCHX is just a baby too.
Phil,
Shouldn’t matter the type. I use only limit orders and the fills are good but the confirmations aren’t.
Phil
I am glad I looked into that bond price closely yesterday. CUSIP that was 82.16 at TD is 81.66 today. I haven’t looked on Schwab, but earlier this morning it was down there too.
String
schx 1 to 5 min time frame….i use SPY for reference…when spy hits target i sell SCHX…now i am looking to sell @ SPY 114.95
string….yes look at TLT its close to what the 30 yr is doing ..it is a little below yesterdays low ..i bought 30 yr near the low yesterday so i am a little in the hole now
i am looking for a spike in yield so i can sell more of my TBT
TLT needs the market to roll over, then folks will flock to it.
String
Phil,
1-5 minute time frame: My kind of guy. You must be using MAs for your target. I have 5min 36MA at 114.95.
I LIKE IT!
US auctions 10yr notes at high yield of 3.735%. (Source: CNBC-RT).
Going higher.
GEORGE…no…. i use price levels and EW….look at 2 day 5 min SPY chart…..
BLASTING thru 114.95
SOLD all SCHX….HASTA!!!!!!
I see Phil. Nice setup.
Good to know my oscillators and MAs are a accurate as EW.
You have the advantage of some predictability however.
Phil,
Does Schwab allow bracket orders. Where you can put a buy, stop and sell in one transaction?
george….too complicated for me….call chuck
GEORGE….remember you told me a couple of weeks ago PRECHTER was calling for a crash??…well you see how well that worked out!!!
Okay, thanks Phil.
BKX bank index breaking to NEW HIGHS…this is not what crashes look like………………
Ha, maybe he meant the inverse crash.
Isn’t March a Key month where the biggest turns come? He may have been keying on that.
as i mentioned we could go all the way back to spx 1040 if this is the B wave here or even lower but i believe it would be a gift to buy…i dont think we will be that lucky…. this market will not give the big pullback that everyone wants to buy.. the next correction may be the last one before all hell breaks loose on the UPSIDE in wave 3 up
George,
PDLI pays a 50 cent dividend to shareholders as of March 15th (takes 3 business day to get into books) so today 1hr left for people to get in and get out the 16th while cashing out 50 cents a share to be paid april first.
Just sayin, that’s what I’ve been playin’.
Yes plenty of blackberry service today.
Thanks K,
That’s a nice dividend.
Has an implied price of 7.33.
. Then work back up to 7.33
Its at 7.27 today but after div might drop to 6.80
Call my bluff on this one if need be. I’m just doing a div play every few months.
ok…good luck all …gotta go…hasta!
was filled tlt 89.26
K,
I think that’s a great idea. That’s the kind of stuff I like to do.
Hey, I don’t know whether to wish you ‘red’ or not anymore now that you’re president. You may want greenjeans.
Here’s hoping this SKF 9/36/15 cross isn’t a Humpty-Dumbty. Not there yet, but putting in my order.
SPY back at that same ol’ place, resting on its 30min 36MA. Still no improvement with its MACD. Ya never know, ya know.
George,
I don’t know what to wish myself
I want red but then again I don’t know haha
(PSSSS we’re buying F tomorrow so I don;t know if this marks the top of the 1 year rally LOL)
I have one share of F. It’s been doing well lately. Buy mucho so my 1 share will bloom.
u got some PDLI?
Yes, a handful of shares of PDLI. I liked that big gap down in Dec. Juice I’m hoping.
PDLI’s last dividend was $1.67. Sup with that?
George,
They only pay once in a while. next one is in september. it depends how good they feel
MSN pays a big dividend too but i didnt chase them.
MSN had a big breakout a few days ago.
yep that’s when they announced dividend and something else hence i chose not to bother
PDLI is a good one.
it’s profitable, has good asset turnover and LOW leverage, very liquid!
long term debt to total assets jumped a bit in 2008 but that’s only side effect..
So fundamentally it receives a K score of 67%
Technically as you can see it has a breakout only the 7.30 resistance.. so 75% there.
anything combined that has 70%+ combined is good in my books.
This one gets a 73%
I wont reveal my secret recipes but they are cooking.
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
http://www.google.com/reader/play/#item/new/0
never seen google in black
George, Schwab has bracket orders (stop, profit, and trailing stops) that are contingent on your original order price. That is in StreetSmart. I don’t use the Pro version, but there is a more advanced version you may like.
2thfixr,
Thanks. My broker sez “you can’t play both sides of the market”. Say, WHAT? They’s born and reared in a Turnip Patch.
GEORGE,
2 different accounts tell a diff story.
Nickname one Beanstalk and the other Shortie
Oliver Stone pushed back the release date of his much anticipated new movie, Wall Street 2.
Now we have to wait until September 24. The original date, April 23, was just a month away.
GRRR
aaahh
well done Sir!!
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/updated-federal-withholding-tax-revenue/
Thanks K.
SPX futures are extra droopy tonight. Down 5 points and taking away the day’s gains…