Back in January, when the market was rallying up to the top of the Box of Beer, I wrote:
“The market never just sails out the top of these boxes; it’s usually a weeks-long ordeal.”
That was at the black arrow on this SPX chart (click to enlarge):
And we certainly had a “week’s long ordeal” with a little help from Greece, right? And now that the market has survived the trial-by-fire, it is free to break into the TARP Box. I’m thinking that it will pull back a bit here, but if it doesn’t, maybe we will get a swing high at the first level in the TARP Box, which is 1170.60.
That’s what happened when the market broke out of the Box of Bulls and into the Box of Beer in October. See the red arrow on the chart. If the market breaks out, and you want to short it, I wouldn’t even entertain the idea until 1170.
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 82.03 -0.06 -0.07
Natural Gas 4.532 -0.027 -0.59
Corn 365.5 -3.5 -0.96
Soybeans 958.0 +10.5 +1.10
30yr Bond 116.25000 -0.06250 -0.05
10yr Note 116.87500 -0.18750 -0.16
NY Gold 1108.6 +0.5 +0.05
NY Silver 17.020 +0.002 +0.01
Emini S&P 1144.25 -1.50 -0.13
Emini Nasdaq 1918.00 -0.75 -0.04
Emini Dow 10559 -6 -0.06
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_7VHLCUlm_9o/S5jH2hhTqXI/AAAAAAAAEaI/b0VHu3RACS0/s1600-h/RiskOscillator031110.gif
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/03/update-on-risk-asset-measures.html
George,
PDLI dropping to 6.80 (aka 50 cents)
We’ll cash in on dividend and let’s see when this moves back up
This is a weekend read.
http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-021110-report.pdf
Matt, nice chart analysis in “SPY Triangle”. Also, what can I say but wow, the “Box of Beer” has played out great. Let’s see if a “Box of TARPS” does the same job. Before it does, SPY may need to go down to “New DOO” to get some energy.
K,
I’m going to follow your lead on PDLI. I must warn you though, I used some of your Sympathy Shares funds to get that puppy.
Thanks After,
NEW DOO coming?
http://i44.tinypic.com/261gbvr.jpg
Looks like we’re in for a sell off this am. EUR/USD -0.12%, CL -0.62%
Phil, that risk oscillator looks quite interesting, is the excel file available too?
No problem George,
I know dividend plays suck but this pharma is decent.
If it doesn’t work out I hope you didn’t get too much
.
And George, remember to sell on the 16th or after if you want to get that half a buck a share
SAM…look thru his archives for more info http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2010/02/risk-oscillator-intermarket-gauge-of.html
GEORGE…back in SCHX on the dip…..it will work till it doesnt…lol
SELL target……SPY 114.95 again
Phil,
I can see why you use SPX to track SCHX. It ain’t the most beautiful 1min chart out there.
K,
Right – 16th or after. I used to trade a pharma and got stung one time. I can’t remember the symbol. I’ll look it up.
bounced TLT @ 89.52 (+.26 from yesterdays buy)
long some PAAS, short CAL
Pharmas are crazy! But this one makes most money off of patents and such sold to other pharmas
.
6.80 seems to be the bottoming as expected… So far
My Acounting and finance homework today is calculate stock prices based on dividend yields etc.
HAHA!! Sorry professor my brain is about 4 years ahead of your teaching plan.
Like I said yesterday… This stock has a price tag of 7.33 which it got close to yesterday before people discounted 50 cents
My trucks are waiting on SDS to do its ‘thing’:
http://i44.tinypic.com/2941jf5.jpg
Dip-buying is alive and well today. SPY still has weakness on the 30min MACD but since it is getting lower to the zero line, it could find a bounce there.
SKF was .48c from being a teenager. Another thrust up could do it. Anyone looking at a daily chart of the underlying has got to be salivating.
SOLD schx….george i am getting dizzy buying and selling this thing…lol
i think SPX has topped this wave up….i will need a sharp correction to buy back in now
Phil,
That’s a good dizzy. Could back off to the new gap then back up again for another wave. At some point MOO will be filled. It looks like it would take a daily turnover to do that.
Phil
Do you use that Street Smart Pro platform?
String
Looks like the VIX is moving up while the market is moving up. Recall there is a delay of a couple of days when the VIX does that. Else it’s another Miff’ed Market Myth.
STRING…..im no PRO….i just use street smart
Yerk,
Mother took me over the hot coals yesterday.
Told me among other things to keep my eye
on the SPX cycle. The last cycle ended when
the SPX hit 1044.50, and we are 5 weeks into
the new cycle. Recent prior cycles topped out
in week 14 and had 2 air releases. If this cycle
followes the same pattern, we should see a
top around the middle of May. Stay alert
for air releases.
a sharp dip to 1137 has me buying again
STRING….hope you are loaded up with bonds like me….lets rock!!!
STRING ..going to sell some bonds into this next surge
U.S. Auctions 13 Billion 30-year notes at high yield of 4.679%. (Source: CNBC-RT)
…and higher
SPY price action getting narrow in the apex. Breakout soon.
UYG getting near tops. It could breakout/down too.
Phil
I have some, but with TLT looking like a moon shoot I am wondering if there something we don’t know.
String
Ha… seems everyone is trading Matt’s triangle.
STRING……..IF you are YELLING…….you should be SELLING
If SPY can catch a bid on its 5min 9ma or 36ma it can bust through that upper resistance trendline. It’s near. But, the 30min MACD has shown no improvement but is near zero where it has potential to bounce.
TLT profits evaporating….overlap at 89.70 could send it to NEW LOWS
Phil
I am in transition also. Takes 5 – 7 days for Schwab to get funds from TD. I have to have it in MM for a period. I wasn’t real pleased to say the least about TD bond pricing. When I go to sell I feel like I will be stiffed then too. You said you have to call Schwab to sell, is that correct? I made the comment the other day that I had made it through winter without a cold. Weather has turned warm, trees are in bloom, and I have the nastiest cold I have had in years. My thinker ain’t working good, so I just sit.
String
String
STRING….you dont have to trade the actual bond..if you want to keep the bond buy TBT or TBF and freeze your profit
STRING…OVERLAP getting close……glad i sold some ……another saying i like is>>>>>SELL when you can……NOT when you have to
SPY up and over the upper resistance line, now down for a backtest.
George
I learned a new trick for making my homemade sourdough bread. I let it rise on the dash of the car parked in the sun. That baby blossoms in a hurry.
String
OK so what is the vote on the spring coil unfolding. We goin up or down. I think down, but I am never right.
String
Stringm,
I like that sourdough idea. You could then put it on your engine and bake it.
I’m voting for down but no reversal yet. Waiting on price to hit the bottom support of that triangle then see what happens. Meanwhile… these have been some tasty swings.
However, I’m hoping SPY 30min will bounce off its zero MACD for another try to the top.
Stringm,
Keeping sourdough ‘starter’ is like the movie “The Quest For Fire”: You have to keep that stuff alive and well for the next batch.
The triangle I was viewing was one I made that was shorter than Matts. His longer view is still playing out. So, his isn’t a done-deal yet.
George
Yep this is a sponge I started with some San Fran starter. I don’t see how one would ever know though. The local yeast have to invade with the SF group. It is tasty hot though!
String
The finance reform is the wild card here. I have to think all the big IBs know what Dodd will propose. They likely wrote it for him. If they did the right thing the banks would likely not fair well, and would in turn try to punish the common folk.
String
Strimgm,
Yep. Common folk will foot the bill (no matter what!) even though it looks the other way around.
Phil
When you call in to sell a bond, how close to the asked price does Schwab say the bid is? As a general rule.
String
URE at tops.
SPY never did fall below my close-up support line. Now it is over Matt’s resistance line.
Still no double top on SPY but less than .20c away.
Now to see what the inverse will come up with.
STRING…i cant really tell you because its always different depending on maturity ,quantity , how volatile the market is, coupon vs zero…too many variables…not to mention how much they want to screw you out of and keep for themselves
string..you have to figure out what you think you should be getting and then you either take what they will pay or say forget it
its easier to use IEF or TLT because there is no human involved..less chance for chicanery but if you are wrong you are stuck with them forever…thats why i am concentrating more on 10 yr treasuries…i can take the pain for 10 years but not forever…lol
It looks like SPY made it to that daily double top.
SKF was .25c away from being a teenager. 6min remaining, could still get there.
The spring is very, very tight… just sayin’…
The SPX closed right at its January highs, so it couldn’t quite break out. However, the futures continued upward to their 4:15pm bell and closed at 1151, which is 4 points above their January high.
After being adjusted down 50 cents (because of the dividend) (and possibly taking out a LOAD of stops
) PDLI worked back up almost 10 cents. that means 50 cent dividend + 10 cent profit for you George (i think LOL)
let’s rally until we sell on the 16th
Phil
IEF and TLT carry some overhead, so there is always chicanery. IEF pays 3%, but has lost 6% YTD. I think I will take all my money in cash and put it in the mattress. No I think I will buy scrap copper. No Gold. I know, maybe a 5 year CD @ 2%. The financial boys that make billions in bonuses have set us old retired farts up great.
String
George
Update on the bread on the dash trick. It was only 72 here today, but I guess in the sun on the dash was too hot. It rose fast, but not even, so the top fell on me. This had worked well on a cold sunny day, but spoiled my product today. I say spoiled, it was still quiet good, but crusty and flaky on the top. Rest of the slice was fine. Maybe I should have had it on the seat since it was warmer.
String
K,
PDLI may be a winner (so far it is). You’re on to something there.
Stringm,
It’s hard to ruin sourdough bread. Even flat it’s good. If your seats are heated that would help. Hey, invent a solar bread baker and be a millionaire with an infomercial.
I have SPY as making a high of $115.48 besting its previous high of $115.14.
The closing high was higher too with the previous $115.06 vs $115.45.
This is using BigCharts.
George,
Yes, SPY made a higher high while the SPX did not. Maybe there was a glitch in the calculation of the SPX.
Matt
wow POT afterhours
I just discovered GOLD
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketSnapshot/StockMarketUpdate.htm
play by play update…. sure many might have seen this before but for me its burried treasure and I will no longer read 300+ articles a day when my brain is friied.. just this page.
enjoy
String,
Hope you’re feeling okay. Rub your gold
number 1. We love sourdough pancakes.