During the election, Fox News tried to trick Donald Trump into campaigning in Texas by classifying the state as “in play.” To his credit, Trump saw through the subterfuge, and kept his eye on the ball in the real battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. And he was right; Trump carried Texas by a comfortable margin of 9%.
However, as the adrenaline of victory recedes, Republicans have to recognize that Trump’s victory in Texas may have been the weakest since Texas became Republican turf in the 1960s. Trump’s 52.43% share of the Texas vote is entirely unimpressive:
Only the years of 1976, 1992, and 1996 were weaker. In 1992 & 1996, third-party candidate Ross Perot, a Texan, took a big bite out of the Republican total. In 1976, the Rockefeller attempt to seize the White House had fallen short with Nelson Rockefeller having to settle for the VP slot. But the Rockefeller propaganda barrage succeeded in discrediting Richard Nixon and the Republican Party to the extent that they were able install their first puppet president, Jimmy Carter, who then staffed his administration with Rockefeller operatives from the Trilateral Commission. That election, to say the least, took place under extraordinary circumstances. So, you could make a strong case for 2016 being the weakest Republican performance since Texas became a red state.
If you watched any of Trump’s rallies, you saw him whip his huge crowds into a state of near pandemonium. So, how could his performance in Texas have continued the historical downtrend? Answer: mass-immigration, which means mass Latino immigration, which means mass *legal* immigration from Mexico. And while Mexicans are good people, they do indeed vote Democratic.
Can the Republican Party win the White House without Texas’s 38 electoral votes? Maybe, but not likely. Trump won 306 electoral votes, and 306-38=268, which is two short of the needed total for victory. Make no mistake, the ongoing “reconquista” of Texas is the premiere political issue of presidential politics.
So obviously, the Republicans should move to curtail the USA’s historic rate of *legal* mass-immigration conducted over recent decades, right? Well, maybe not. During the campaign, Trump started out by famously vowing to “build the wall.” Then he started saying that there would be a door in the wall, then a big door, then a big, beautiful door, then many doors, then many beautiful doors. And by the end of the campaign he was saying that people would “come pouring in through the many big, beautiful doors in the wall” as long as they did it legally.
Perhaps Trump was just “triangulating” to cater to the Latino vote. Or maybe he had only visa-workers in mind who would never get green cards. Or maybe he would shift immigration policies to peoples who would tend to vote Republican. However, with the majority of the world’s nations being socialist, one wonders if such a thing as a trove of “natural” Republican voters even exists. Perhaps you are thinking of other Anglo nations like the UK. But even there, the Brexiteers have their National Health Service, and might feel more comfortable voting Democratic here.
Republicans always seem to be fantasizing about how they will gain the support of poor people by promising them jobs. But does working in an Amazon sweatshop, where they are driven like Alaskan sled dogs, literally until they drop, turn poor Democrats into gung-ho Republicans? I doubt it. If the Republicans follow my plan, outlined in A Second Industrial Revolution, they might be able to win some converts. But with Trump’s support for “Right to Work” doctrine displayed during the campaign, the prospects of winning hearts and minds seems remote, and certainly should not be counted on by the party.
During the modern era of mass-immigration, all three major parties have supported it for different reasons. The Libertarians simply don’t believe in allowing borders of any kind to impede the machinations of their robber-baron patrons. The Democrats have sought to flood the nation with immigrants purely for their votes. And Republican administrations brought waves of immigrants for their cheap labor to goose corporate profits while simultaneously attempting to suppress voter turnout.
Until we have concrete evidence that this political dynamic has been ended, we must assume that there is an excellent chance that Donald Trump will be the last Republican president – ever.
Note: Mexico is the largest source of legal immigrants by far, accounting for over 10% of the annual total. In 2014, the latest year reported, there were 133,107 green cards issued to Mexican nationals, which is nearly double the second-place nation of India at 74,451. See Table 2 in the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2014. All those people saying that immigration from Mexico has shifted into reverse? Yeah, they’re lying. It may apply to illegals, but trust me, no Mexican-American is burning their green card.