In case the market has a larger-than-usual move up on Thursday, here is the new Box of Beer (click chart to enlarge):
The market is still respecting the Fibonacci proportions of the initial impulse wave up off of the March bottom as defined by The March Box. As you can see on the chart above in the Box of Bulls, the Fibonacci levels are still frequently acting as important support and resistance levels (red arrows).
I will update this post to explain the “Box of Beer” name when I have time.
Update: The Box of Beer is named in honor of Joe Sixpack, who might be driving this rally now.
No need to explain. your subliminal message has reached me and I am downing one as I type.
Ah, should have known you’d come up with a good name Matt. I don’t drink beer so my private name will be Box of “Cafeine Free Diet Coke”.
K,
If that rising triangle is supposed to change direction, it’s not doing a good job. Shouldn’t price be going down? It’s poking through the top.
after Says:
September 16th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
“George – are you serious with your 11:05am post ? (re SKF)”
After, not kidding but I also don’t know. I have zero predictive power. Just an observation that SKF is getting close to the teens and it won’t take much of a continued move up for the market to beat it down some more.
However, I AM serious about it going to $80 one day. Hopefully in my lifetime.
George,
Remember fakeouts?
Breakout suddenly just reverses.
remember what paula said about pro traders taking out limits. well they take out limit buy orders to the upside then cause them to have losses
SKF can reverse split and go to 80 by tomorrow
Ehh, I think that is going to be another Market Myth Miff.
That puppy will bust out to the upside and not look back. It filled that gap and will keep going until this SPY trendline is hit:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d9a36d8f-9233-4927-aa42-87e91731b803
why don’t you just leave prediction to those who pretend to predict. stick to scalping (I’m just kidding nice link!)
When this market reversed to the upside, it was a buy of a lifetime – for a while. When it reverses, it will be an inverse buy of a lifetime.
There are just too many extremes from the time the market dropped. SKF and other inverse stocks went to extremes on the high side, now they are at an extreme on the low side while this market has only corrected 50%.
I may be Miff’ed, but I expect to see a few more extremes before everything levels out. Obviously, these are technical moves along with emotional perceptions. But mainly, it is technical in order to squeeze both sides of the market.
If this is a squeeze to the upside, it will last as long as the pros allow, then take it back down. And, don’t they always last longer than one expects?
Ha, one thing about pretending predictions, they are usually correct at least once.
Heck, I haven’t been correct one time! So I’m not even a good pretender. lol
K,
You’re better at that techno stuff than me. I’m learning and there’s a lot of truth in what you said about MMs running past expected areas. I believe that must be why so many technicals were busted.
OK I’m going to shut’er down. I’ve been studying Bollinger Bands. Trying to figure out if will help.
Later…
One last thing Asian markets all green shoots.
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2009/09/baltic-dry-index-exposed-down-43-from.html
The way forward in a nutshell from Nassim Taleb:
“The first thing I would tell Chinese officials is, how can you buy U.S. bonds as long as Larry Summers is there? He’s a textbook case of overconfidence. Look what happened to Harvard’s finances. They took a lot of risk they didn’t understand, and it was a disaster. That’s the Larry Summers mentality.”
Futures just had a 6pt jump to 1070 before Europe opens and fell back. Things get more and more whacky. More beer, please.
Matt,
Is it beer because this whole thing is nothing but bubbles (aka all foam) and only GS can afford champagne?
If it’s “light beer” does that mean we turn before we get all the way to 1155?
junglegirl LOL
resistance areas around here, ~1110 and then ~1155. If the last one doesn’t hold I max out on calls and kill phil if we do not see 1600 until year’s end
Dollar collapsing. This might get interesting.
Yerk,
I remember long ago (in a P1 bear rally) when hank (newbie, back then) wrote he’d concede at SPX 1500. His comment has been on my mind for the past few months.
junglegirl, 1150+ would be an inflationary scenario. I don’t see that right now, but my opinion might be subject to reversal. Inflation/liquidity will manifest itself in commodity prices which in turn will kill profitability. p/e are already quite optimistic…
paula, thanks for the chartsedge link. How’s their track record? I received a sample report today. Their turn-date is in line with my expectations and the target down, too. The alternate count is relentlessly climbing the pile of boxes – then doing the Summerssault.
Yerk: Things get more and more whacky
Are you kidding me? Things are whacky for months now but the stock markets go up. Since at least end of June I’m hearing next month it will be terrible and we’ll see a nasty correction and so on. There is no red in the stock market anymore. Everybody knows that. Are you not on the GS email distribution list?
Larry,
RE: “Dollar collapsing. This might get interesting.”
Another one of the “extremes”.
Dressguard, 5pt spikes right before Europe opens are a *bit* unusual. Interesting time to run stops. At that time of the day 1pt is like a huge move.
Hey phil, Kenny joined you in camp 1600.
Oh yes, we have some strange and erratic behaviour for a while now. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
Opex this week. Today and tomorrow stops will be run as was stated by paula and K.
VIX floundering around but in general it has moved down. There were a couple of days where it moved up while the market moved up. Another Market Myth Miff’ed I suppose.
Yerk:
Are you in “Eu”topia too? Immigrants are counseling me to buy gold AND stocks! Me? I wondered why Japanese came here until I learned about the carry trade and now I see why our banks are tightening domestically too – A U.S. carry trade perhaps? Would Euro tightening change that? Hard to see exporting countries trading goods for $ right now – unless things outside of U.S. worse.
1059 in futures is crucial.