CNBC’s policy of not reporting the Chicago PMI certainly backfired on them Wednesday morning, didn’t it? The market got quite a jolt when it surprised to the downside at 9:45am. What’s wrong with CNBC? Do they really think traders would rather listen to them yap than get the news?
In case you didn’t hear, it was Fed Head Donald Kohn’s speech that saved the market Wednesday afternoon. The Fed has exited its exit strategy. It wasn’t enough for a green close, but will it stave off a correction?
The IYT ate away some more of its September 10th gap at 68.57 that I have been talking about recently. The IYT needs to rally quick becuase the support is starting to look awfully shaky.
I NEEED my 1035 prediction to come alive today!! it will!
Matt, ah, that explains it. So what will Mr Kohn do tomorrow?
i stayed up till now only because i wanted to watch the hourly in the futures close where i thought it would. it did. resistance 1053-1056
support is a trendline going back to today’s 9am low.
we might go higher to about 1055.73 by 9am tomorrow then crash to 1038.65
night
so far not much momentum, chopping around the high end of the expected range for the dax today. Agree with phil on the 1070, still sticking with ~1030-35 as danger zone for the bulls.
Treasury Says It Will Release The TARP Payment Data Tomorrow or Friday
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-carney-treasury-says-it-will-release-the-tarp-payment-data-tomorrow-or-friday-2009-9
Greenspan Calls Market Top LOL
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAWaDzlGw0JI
General Motors Co. said Wednesday it would shut down its Saturn brand after an agreement with Penske Automotive Group Inc. to acquire it fell apart.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090930/ap_on_bi_ge/us_saturn_penske
Hmm why walk away from such great potential? Maybe GM being greedy?
ok am done linking for the day
Hasn’t Saturn been incorporated to boost GM’s potential by learning from a smaller competitor?
Simple weekly trendlines:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=f49032c4-0160-4406-a531-c661624cd13f
Use this weekly trendlines instead of the previous:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=507e8caf-29ae-42e9-adfd-e98d220c74db
Tops/bottoms, inverse needs to get past these tops if it wants to get a trend going.
Fed-Speak today. That should give some volatility.
There’s going to be some serious short-covering today.
GEORGE…..i am covering my remaining shorts……NOW!!!!
GO PHIL!
Deja-Vous yesterday?
GEORGE….we may have one more new high but obviously market is tired..i will soon be leaning more towards short than long
Gotcha. Down day in an up market? I’ll check the daily trendline and see.
Inverse is basing on the 1min and 5min. Waiting for Tres Amigos on 5min for SPY UYG if it happens.
JG:
XOM on the daily from 6-11-09 until today. What triangle do you perceive?
Gone long for the first time in memory near day lows with tight stops
hank………NOW you want to go long ?????? OMG
Phil,
Day trade with tight stops. (In at weekly and daily lows) No change in sentiment. If you can’t beat join’em!
(Made a killing paper trading in the last three days so I thought i’d make some real money today
HANK…only kidding….i may buy qqqq on next plunge
Well Hank you should be loving XOM then. That POS has gone from squaw’s tit to Jim’s dust sweepers.
Here comes your plunge, stopped out. Took some gains at 104.52 so I broke even overall. Gotta go GLTA today.
When we fall below 1015, the plunge into the abyss will commence. Gold and gold stocks will lead the way. The commitment of traders assures it.
GEORGE….going to shy away from double etfs now
jim……gold has little potential now….maybe later
phil,
Why not doubles? Doesn’t matter what’s traded. I wouldn’t use them for hedges but they trade well individually.
Ha, That “base” on the 1min was a bear flag on the 5min for SPY.
george…they erode over time…this market will flatten out
GEORGE>>>>OVERLAP ON SPX of 1039.47 !!!!!http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SsErcfqfK3I/AAAAAAAACAI/c9TJw9b6X38/s1600-h/spx30.png
UPWARD ACCELERATION NEGATED….spx still could test top
Phil, thanks. Beginning now most likely.
Geeze, SKF can’t even go up a dollar.
DOW sitting on its daily 36MA, SPY still not down to it yet.
Mitch,
IMO, your triangle actually started much earlier. Pull up a chart from about 2006 onward to see it more clearly. Then note extending the upper boundary line of the triangle back in time, it connects to the May 2008 top. What you appear to be seeing now is the E leg has itself broken into a triangle. This means instead of a 3-3-3-3-3 configuration for 5 legs, you should get 9 waves total because the last leg breaks into its own 3-3-3-3-3. The triangle looks symmetrical.
SRS is the beauty queen of the day. Soon SPY will join the pageant for its remarkable makeover.
George how’s the first post of this thread? How’s that for a soup nazi demand?
Thanks JG. I looked back to 2006 and you’re right.
K,
You’ve been nailing it lately!
Donka
MITCH…..$tyx and $tnx are BELOW SUPPORT now…..as u correctly pointed out yesterday…..go bonds!
phil:
Mr. Market appears to have been debriefed by Mrs. Economy.
String,
If you have an interest in trading the SPX
cycle, you need to track the cycle. We
are in week 12 of the current cycle. The
cycles usually run from 16 to 22 weeks.
My best guess is that this cycle will run
16 weeks. If it does, we should see the
SPX low around the end of Oct…and
that would be the time to think about
buying Jan OEX call options. When you
trade the cycle, you don’t worry about
daily moves…only that the SPX is moving
up if you have up cycle calls or that the
SPX is moving down if you have down
cycle puts. The number of up or down
weeks depends on the overall market
outlook. Right now the number of up
weeks are greater than the number of
down weeks, but that will change in
2010.
hmmhmm, my case for new highs is still intact… Turning right at target.
Great call K!
Paula
I will work with that. How do you judge the turn as corrective or trend changes. MA crosses, or a combination of indicators?
String
anyone see a retrace of todays drop?
String,
It’s a guess. I use the SPX 3 DEMA and the
SPX 6 DEMA for trend changes. When the
trend changes I look at where we are in
the SPX cycle to guess if it’s a daily or
weekly correction. If it’s a weekly correction. I
want the SPX 20 DMA to confirm it at some time.
The SPX went below last weeks low. In the last
weekly SPX correction the SPX moved down
to the SPX 20 WEMA…bounced and then
moved down to the SPX 20 WMA…the low
for the last cycle.
I’ve talked to some of the world’s best traders
about the SPX cycle…no one had a 100% indicator
…but all agreed it was the relaxed way to trade
the market…there is room for error and you still
make money.
Almost a buck on SKF…
String,
One more thing to keep your eye on is the
SPX monthly MACD. It has a buy signal
right now…look for the number of up
weeks in the cycle to be greater than
the number of down weeks. When the SPX
monthly MACD moved to a sell, look for the
number of down weeks in the cycle to be
greater than the number of up weeks.
String,
Will be back late tonight.
scotty:
We’ve got a bullish scenario in the States. Worm turning now . . . I haven’t a clue when the next wave comes but it will.
???
mitch…..TLT has resistance near 101……selling the last of it there
GS just revised there unemploment report from -200 to -250
JIM……….commitment of traders is very BEARISH for gold …ie commercials are record NET SHORT……plus consensus has 80% bulls….i have sold all my gold…..plus dollar looks ready to RUMBLE….not a pretty picture for gold
didn’t think the news today justified this drop but you sense the trend change the last couple of closes(lol now we probably go up into the close)anyway I as expecting this towards the end of Oct., but we need some Hindenberg Omens to confirm a crash is coming down the road
The past few days have been great trading.
TNX down to 3.1 -1.10,,,, that ain’t gonna last long.
GEORGE…i am a BUYER of qqqq on overlap of 41.58
george… re: TNX….i am selling bonds as fast as i can …..lol
make that overlap of 41.60
we may have already bottomed but be careful here
Phil
What is the overlap you are referring to. Is it determined by the last cycle low?
String
string….. i am looking for overlap of waves …..that tells me in a decline that the decline is usually corrective…ie against the trend….but at a turning point … which we could have here… it gets tricky….we are close to a top here
Wow I made the call sept 23 at 9:24pm
There is a blog entry that I created sept 25 on my blog. Copy and pasting links on blackberry is annoying so just click my name if interested
No soup for the market!!!!
Its never a bad thing to demand something and have it delivered right on time! Wow! Ok am very happy ill take the rest of the day off
K….i saw that call and i hoped you were wrong but now we know the rocket ship blast upwards has been cancelled…that info is very helpful..now shorts can be put on without getting blown out of the water which was the risk until today with overlap of 1039.47
phil,
Nice play on the bonds. I can’t tell what kind of pattern is developing. Just hope the market keeps this up.
K,
You won’t have to fix soup for a week. Will be checking your scoreboard.
I think that when this trendline breaks substantially, we might have something…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LQD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p37390755913&a=179490997
I’m on the lookout for the 20ema to cross the 5oma for a confirmation of a trend change… Todays chart is interesting too…
phil,
This may be the “spooky” you were talking about.
george….look at daily spx chart…uptrend from july broken today..see big bounce off it yesterday??….i bet you we rush up from below to touch it again for final top
george………” scary”
Jobs report tomorrow. That’ll put a spring in the market.
SKF finally went over a dollah. +$1.60 and some change. And it’s still working.
Waiting on SKF $80.
Oh, “scary” not “spooky”. Memory is the first thing to go.
Phil you liking sds here?
SPY is building a base again on the intraday. With this massive downage, I’ve switched up to a 30min upper time frame chart on SPY. No whipsaws allowed on premises.
BBT taken to the woodshed. Take some home?
scotty…..you have to do your own work
SPX daily RSI broke under 50.
Weak weekly chart on pretty much all indicators for SPX.
UUP looking good. VIX daily/weekly looking good.
I couldn’t wait to get BBT. Last scalp of the day. Leave a little in for good things to come.
junglegirl….uup looks like it may be gearing uup for an island reversal to trap dollar bears eh?????
George:
Re: BBT
That is a fun one!
Alot of cross-currents about whether P3 or C down has begun, McHugh says not yet, one more rally to new highs then massive sell-off lower, but todays market action really making both bears and bulls nervous.
george…this line is from march low http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/2009-10-01_dude.png
Revenge of the bears… Book’em Dano.
scotty:
I apologize for writing that – it was insensitive of me. I will honor the devolution of phil’s horns with the proper respect.
mitch….as you can probably tell by my posts today my horns fell off and i am now a CALF
Fantastic day. I think my srs calls alone were at least 100% alone today.
Female condom dissapointed but thank god for stoplosses
. (FHCO if you’re interested loll )
phil,
If it drops down below that it might back-test it. ?
K, nice. SRS… Cash Cow…
MOOooo
Mitch,
Yeah, BBT is most definately profitable. When it drops like this it will try helter-skelter to go back up. I mean, once it has bottomed.
phil:
I can rest easy knowing did all I could to save a 401k from disaster – just hope to get better – not worried at all – bull, bear, calf, giraffe they all have hair or something like that George?
“my horns fell off and i am now a CALF” sooo funny. So that’s what happens to bulls… lol
just a new call here. 1020.56-1023.46 in /ES is support thanks to two 61.8% fibs located in that area.
just sayin!
Bull, Bear, I don’t care
I’ve been trading since I had hair
The market goes up, the market goes down
I get in and out and don’t stick around
If I had a dollah for every mistake I made
I’d be a billionaire and wouldn’t need to trade
Scalps-Я-Us
good night all……………hasta
Thanks George! I like that because I think so many people get caught up fighting straw men.
George,
Death toll in Indonesia earthquake rises to 777 (AP)
777 , -777 and all that. what do you say we implement those funny looking numbers into the dow jones industrial?
Ha, I knew you’d get 777 from somewhere K. LOL!