66 thoughts on “Thursday’s Trading – 10/22/09

  1. after,

    FYI
    I have been expecting SKF to drop to the teens before a turnaround. I’m also expecting a blow-off top in SPY and the indexes which would make that happen.

  2. added a 1/5position in SDS, market fill was slow and i paid 38.72
    will add more tomorrow, another 1/5 @ 37.86 or lower to bring avg cost down to 38.29 which was todays open…

    George – blowoff top ? do you have a target for the nas100 there, i..e price or time wise, or can’t say yet ?

    many thanks…

    was my dump of vxx the bottom ? i’m afraid to look, but hopefully what i replaced it with does reasonably well…

  3. SDS has filled its daily gap-down it created Oct 13th. And has now backed off.

    SPY nearing its 5min 36MA resistance about .30c away.

  4. If those 36MAs are breached to the upside, shorts will cover hard because that drop yesterday was straight down and there are no resistance areas to speak of.

  5. George,

    Wow, there is nobody here. Is this unusally sparse today ? (since i don’t look in intraday that often)

    Needless to say today’s mkt action is not what i expected after yesterday’s engulfing candlestick & reversal.

  6. dave,

    Yes, it isn’t doing what I expected either. I’m waiting to see if SPY bounces off its 5min 36MA because 15min is positive.

    I don’t know where everyone went but there was a lot of discussion yesterday and last night. Maybe all typed out.

  7. George,

    Given that various time cycles placed us in a window for a top, i would have thought that yesterday’s engulfing reversal would have led to a little more selling before a bounce. And now i’m reading some astute sources who were bearish are not dismissing NH’s

  8. I tried to tell some bears yesterday to not celebrate prematurely.

    Here’s one reason no to:

    $TRIN
    Fri 16 – 1.64
    Mon 19 – 1.22
    Tues 20 – 1.78
    Weds 21 – 1.32

  9. Yes, yesterday too much of a reaction move. Everything has bounced off its 5min 36MA. BBT is a winner too. ICE let me down though. But ICE does its own thing sometimes.

  10. The market telegraphed this move. SPY 15min stochastic was positive right from the get-go then brought the MACD along with it. Don’t know how far it will go, but that was a nice counter so far.

  11. There’s no resistance that I can tell with the underlying up until yesterday’s turnaround. Doesn’t mean it will keep going up, could do a Humpty on the 15min but safe to swing the 1 and 5min until the 15min turns.

  12. That was a picture-perfect setup: crossed 5min 36ma to the upside, backed off and retested that MA, stochastic was below 20, then took off. Set a stop just below the 36MA and it is a safe trade.

  13. i think a neutron bomb must have hit the world of finance. Even my Google alerts traffic is waaaaay down

  14. Price divergences on each of the 3 indices are too great. They will have to get back to reality and so far nasdaq looks like the leader to be followed

  15. George,
    I only traded educational knowledge today. 🙂

    What I trade for a quick buck is breakout stocks of the day. The srs I try to hold overnight to avoid a daytrade since I’m limited to 3.

    How are you doing today?

  16. SSO will make a 9/36/15 cross-up in 5 minutes. The last such cross-up was a loser because the market topped on the next bar. However, the cross-up before that, on October 16th was a good trade.

  17. K, I’m well, hope you are too. Yep, those limits a grueling. You’d think “they” would want folks to participate in the market regardless. But, daddy knows best.

  18. remember george,
    you want what you can’t have so they play hard to get. that way you put $25k right up front and then before you know it you lose it all. LOL

  19. Matt,
    Apple doesn’t do that so steve ballmer didnt either. I was expecting him too in a black turtleneck that showed his big belly LOL.

  20. Despite the fact that some banks are charging as much as 79% yearly interest rates, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke insists that Congress must use caution when the it comes to future credit card regulation:

  21. The big event for the day will be the announcement of US auction sizes for next week. RBS economists estimate that we’ll see $44bn in 2 years, $41bn in 5-years, $30bn in 7 years, and $7bn in a 5 year TIPS reopening which would all be a $1bn upsizes versus prior auctions and reopenings. This should signify the first set of auctions which raise more than $100bn of net cash for Treasury in a week if our estimates of issuance are correct.

  22. MOTHERFKER!!!!!

    TED spread up another 9% today… get ready guys and gals. this neutral freak is getting another 10 short tomorrow.

  23. while I realize this is a lot of links. I think I will start rounding up my favorites and making a daily blog post instead. one stop shop. what do you think? I don’t want to have you scroll through 10-15 comments of mine looking for something.

    let me know. (39 more articles to skim and am done for now)

  24. Another day, another 7,000 people run out of unemployment benefits.

    One month after the House passed a bill extending unemployment benefits, the issue is still being debated in the Senate.

    …1.3 million people [are] set to lose their benefits before year’s end if Congress doesn’t act, according to the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group. In October alone, more than 200,000 people will fall off the rolls.
    This will probably hit 10,000 people per day soon. An extension of this safety net has widespread support … and is still being held up in the Senate.

  25. george and others? just stumbled upon these. a few look unfamiliar to me thats why am posting. maybe some new scalps to exploit 😉

    Top 10 ETF by relative strength

    edc
    uym
    bgu
    agq
    fas
    tna
    mvv
    ure
    uyg
    uwm

  26. I reckon we are pretty sick and tired of hearing about topping patterns, but…

    The QQQQ has a head-and-shoulders pattern, which you can easily see on the 60-minute chart. This afternoon, it ran up to the level of the left shoulder and was pushed back.

    A reasonable projection for this pattern would be 42 for the Q’s.

    If the Q’s don’t hit 42 within a week, I will not type the word “top” for the rest of the year, and I will not post any charts showing topping patterns. The bulls will have free reign.

  27. K, love all the posts. I like that I can pick and choose through them. What time period was the Top 10 list of RS made from? Today? This week? October? YTD?

    Thanks Matt for the symbol explanation. I was using the CME site (globex) to check out the Dec 09 futures. I’ll see if Schwab gives quotes and charts on the E-mini.

    George, I pulled up your chart with silverlight and I don’t see a target marked. Is it that small yellow line at 108.25? Thanks.

    I should be around tomorrow, but I’ll try not to post too much. The dentist had to make some money today and make some beautiful smiles! 🙂 Repaired a college soccer player’s two chipped front teeth. Took some before and after’s that will wind up the website this weekend. If anyone is interested, I’ll provide a link. If not, I’ll shut up about it.

    Thanks goodness for protective stops on my large SDS position today while I worked. I managed to set it up so that I got 3/4 out at $38.51 with an average purchase price of $37.60. I’m still holding a quarter of the position at this point and I can decide what to do with it tomorrow when I am home.

  28. 6 month time frame 2thfixr.
    I think writing a large post on my website would be great. I will also post links from time to time but when I get home every day and compile 500+ articles into 5-10 links it might be overwhelming.

    🙂

  29. Nice pick up on the Q’s Matt. I just looked at it and we sure look like we are at the top of a right shoulder. You, as an experienced trader, can answer, where should one enter this trade?

    Does one:
    1) Take a small position now?

    2) Intitiate or add when it pierces the neckline trendline (in the $42.70 or $42.60 area)?

    3) Initiate or add when it pierces the right neckline low ($42.79)?

    I have never traded a H&S, so I’m not sure what to look for. I’d like to follow along and probably paper trade this one, but without knowing what I’m looking for, kind of hard to do! Thanks ahead of time.

  30. 2thfixr,

    Yes, definitely paper-trade this one. The Q’s moved up in the aftermarket after Amazon’s earnings report, and the NDX futures are still pushing higher. Of course, the same thing happened after Apple’s earnings report, and the market dropped the next morning (the 20th), but what are the chances of the same scenario playing out?

    Matt

  31. But where would most traders enter a H&S? I plan on paper trading, so no capital spent here, don’t worry. I’ve always seen trendlines drawn from the necklines, but I would think that entering a trade right below the lowest neckline makes the most sense (from a cup w/ handle trader perspective).

  32. 2thfixr,

    If the resistance at the right shoulder holds, one could short the Q’s as soon as they turn down, with a stop just above the shoulder. A tight stop with a potential whoosh down is a pretty good risk-reward setup.

    Matt

  33. Thanks Matt. That is why I asked, because IBD would say “don’t enter the trade until it breaks 10 cents above the pivot point, even though you can buy the stock cheaper in the cup, or during the handle.” But I’ve always had a problem with that thinking!

  34. WTF!! eur/usd broke to new high. i went short at 1.5047 andd then it shot straight up at 1.5059 YIKES
    retreating for a bit now and I hope i does. glad i didnt have that small of a stop.

  35. oh i think i know why. according to my multinational click on my desk it is 9:26AM in Hong kong. so some early orders musta caused the spike in currencies. or is it a sign of things to come this friday?

  36. K,

    There is often a jolt in the futures at 8pm and then again at 3am, when Asia and Europe wake up. So yes, it’s something to be prepared for when you are trading at night.

    Matt

  37. Yupp Matt,
    I just had my tendency to go short at my black magic line and that’s about it. if euro breaks below 1.5043 in the minute chart there might be some trouble brewin.

  38. K,
    Mother makes sure Paula and I read all of the
    research reports on heart health plus have
    a ton of blood tests which we hate every
    year.
    It turns out that magnesium is important to
    heart health. If you do not eat foods high
    in magnesium, you should consider a supplement.
    We like Doctor’s Best High Absorption Magnesium.
    We buy it from…iherb.com…
    We love I Herb. Try to pool our orders and get
    free 2nd day shipping. If we miss the $120.00
    mark, we pay $6.00 for 2nd day shipping. A
    lot of places charge close to $6.00 for regular
    shipping.

  39. Julie,
    I bought CVS 250mb magnesium supplement.

    I hate doing tests every year. last time i did 4 months ago came to tell me i had slightly higher bad cholesterol. I have started working out and should help.

    I’d rather move back home, eat natural foods and that would be that. but life is life and i’m at least 5-10 years from doing that. if i survive till then it’ll be a different story 😀

    keep letting me know about stuff though. Mother still takes care of you like that? you gals must be nice. 😀 (it’s a compliment if it comes out as otherwise)

  40. Julie, my resting heart rate varies between 45 and 48. Keep those hearts healthy! Glad you have found a great place to get your supplements.

    Not trying to step on your toes K, but from today’s close on the SPX, I got the following pivot points:

    R3 1121.55
    R2 1108.38
    R1 1100.65

    Pivot 1087.48

    S1 1079.75
    S2 1066.58
    S3 1058.85

    Do you concur?

    Today’s pivot was 1081, and the SPX opened at 1080.96!

  41. ahh yes i remember either you or paula mentioning this earlier in august when i declared my hdl level.

    Hope all is well Julie! one more curiosity about nationality. american or australian? 😛

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