I have three scenarios in mind for today:
1) It will be a re-run of Tuesday where the market eroded the support at the October 8th gap (105.79 for SPY) by going mostly sideways with choppy action. Today, it would be eroding the support at the October 6th gap (104.05 for SPY), the top of which stopped the decline on Wednesday afternoon.
2) SPY will “echo gap” under the October 6th gap, and the SPX will proceed directly to test the October 2nd low at 1019.95. It could bounce and print a bullish hammer candle there.
3) A sharp short-covering rally, possibly triggered by an upside surprise in the GDP report that would retrace some of the plunge.
As I write this, the futures have held the 1037 level, making a low at 1037.25 just before 7pm, Wednesday night. So, that’s some solace for the bulls so far.
Let’s see what the GDP report is and how the market reacts to it. GS has likely lowered the expectations to very low levels with their downgraded estimate Wednesday morning.
K as I understand the AG wants them to stop resetting the ARMs. If hypothetically the govt pays for the difference, where is the issue?
Is she the lady on the site you’re linking to?
which site Yerk?
and yes Matt she was hitting on me
i don’t have facebook or i’d show a picture with face blocked lol.
all I can say is that gives me more motivation to continue the “Boxing Workout” that I started in early October after 1 year of idling.
I am working next semester’s schedule that I only miss Tuesday and Thursday in the market but am available MWF (monday wed friday for those that don’t know)
sure less exposure to the brazilians but I need more market exposure!
http://www.topcultured.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/wife3.jpg
http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/Suo6m0Ud_LI/AAAAAAAAFOU/h4M2J6l1trQ/s1600-h/SPXVIXNYMO2.png
BOO YAH!
Now, take a look at these headlines from the week of October 12-17, 2009:
“The Great Recession Is Over.” (Reuters)
“80% of Economists Say The Worst Is Behind Us.” (CNN Money)
“The Bull Is Back” (AP)
“The Economic Recovery Is Well Underway” (Wall Street Journal)
Hank, RE:
Hank Says:
October 29th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
“Matt,
it looks like #3 in your post was correct.
George, do you see a reversal tomorrow?”
My comment was related to how the market is starting to make reactionary daily moves; down, up, down again, etc. If it is doing that, then tomorrow may be a down day.
SPY is nearing its 60min 36MA with MACD coming from under the zero line and it will have a tough time breaking through. The daily stochastic is down to its 20 line but has not given a buy signal.
As Matt says, gun-to-head, I would say tomorrow would be a down day after a gap-up to reach the 60min 36MA then down from there.
That’s only a “guess” and something I would be looking for but I would never trade the guess unless it met my trade criteria.
K,
There’s a contrarian belief that if market news makes front page, it is ready to turn the opposite direction. Could be a Market Myth though.
George,
(Ok George you got me I don’t know elliot wave yet that well lol)
I’ve taken the stance of putting money where my mouth is so yes I too believe we’re ready for a scary C wave unlike the small one that scared phil
K, the SPXVIX chart you posted at 10:12 indicates two candlestick patterns that are NOT the same as what our most recent last two days look like. The first two patterns are three stick patterns with a long red candle, an inside day green candle (harami), followed by a long legged doji that is nearly a harami of the previous two days (the Feb instance has a top wick that just barely covered the previous day’s high). Fast forward to the past two days, and today’s trading was NOT a harami of the down day two days ago. Therefore, the candlestick patterns are not the same. Just wanted to point that out to any non-candlestick literate lurkers of this blog.
However, I wouldn’t mind a long legged doji that both those previous three stick patterns represent, as they would be GREAT day trading!!! Whiplash anyone? I’ll certainly keep my eye open for just such a day. Thanks for pointing it out!
let’s just say am holding true to this quote I had on Sept 28 in my blog post.
“The TED Spread which measures the general risk in the economy has been rising the last couple of weeks. today alone it rose 5.42% which means interbank loans are now riskier. This is still not significant enough and I would like to see another 33% increase in the TED before I really put a lot of my sidelined money on the short side.”
====
calculating that 33% gain i wanted from sept 28 it means I want TED around 0.26 it’s currently at 0.235
when we reach those levels? well let’s just say i’ll have my biggest payday yet.
2thfixr.
I just stumble upon interesting charts on my daily skim of about 360 new articles posted by people like you and me or by more professional ones.
never hurts to have a lot of grains of salt because together they make the egg taste great.
don’t just eat the salt itself though it will dehydrate you and your trading account.
am getting hungry
I can tell….
I love your posts, and enjoy sifting through all the grains of sand looking for great nuggets that will help make a great trade. Just didn’t want someone to misinterpret what was being represented on that chart. The first two patterns ARE the same, but the last two days DO NOT match that pattern. Enjoy dinner. I had a great workout at the gym tonight. Ready to trade like a ninja tomorrow.
Quoting Roy Longstreet: ““Many major problems people have in trading are caused by their expectations – of where the market is headed, how much money will they make from this trade, etc. One thing I learned that has helped me: it is wrong for a person to enter any market with any preconceived expectations.”
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/idiot-trades-and-trending-markets.html
George,
it helps a lot when working out.
The Brazilian girl hit on me due to my new size. but now I want to thank you for your NOS supplement suggestion early this year when i was having twitches
K, is that size BIGGER (big weights) or smaller (fat loss)?
Starting in March of this year, I went from 35% body fat to under 17% as of tonight. It feels great to be in such great shape! I’m training for a half-marathon in January with a goal of 1:45 (8 minute miles). Good luck in attaining your fitness goals!
Not sure what my bodyfat is but for a 6’1″ i’m at 158 used to be in 148′s last year. so am looking more built up
yeah i have to lose the belly fat and get my abs back.
i’m doing high reps low weights in order to build endurance and not too much size. i want to take on boxing lol
cool! I’m 5’8″, 158. Don’t bust up those teeth boxing (Leon Spinks), or you’ll have to visit me to get them put back in! Did you take any profits in your shorts today, or are you sitting dead red at this point waiting for the downdraft to begin in earnest and unwilling to try to squeeze anymore profit out of the rebound upwards?
I’m seeing all kinds of resistance overhead, so I’m beginning to set up my shorting plan.