The QQQQ held its opening up-gap by a couple of cents on Wednesday. Then, it rallied a little bit after the bell on Cisco’s earnings report and gushing conference call. However, the NDX futures have sunk as I type this. If the big funds want to buy tech on the Cisco news, we will see it after the open. If they don’t want to buy tech now, when would they? If the Q’s can’t hold up the market, then that would be downright bearish.
Of course, the market needs to worry about Friday’s jobs report, or more likely, Goldman’s leak of the number sometime on Thursday. An upside surprise could paint a right shoulder onto the SPX. But while the job market may be getting slightly less bad, it is still a catastrophe. Hell, it’s so bad that the big tech companies aren’t bringing in any more Indian scabs. WSJ story here.
Other things to watch are DIA’s gap, which it held along with the Q’s. If both DIA and QQQQ hold above their Wednesday morning gaps, the bulls have a chance. Also, the IYT is holding just about all of its “Buffet Gap” from Tuesday morning. Filling that gap would be rather bearish also.
Can the market hold gains after the fabulous Buffet/Burlington deal, and the fabulous Cisco earnings? If not, well what’s it gunna take?
Note: I know “gunna” is not a word, but I hear the President say it all the time, so I reckon it’s OK.
Etch out a nice 1070+ right shoulder for the 2thfixr!!!! Although, a gravestone doji isn’t exactly a “bullish” daily candlestick to be looking at when that is what you’d like to see from the market. Perhaps we’ll get there via Cisco on thursday and a “less bad” jobs report on Friday?!?
Hold down the fort, I’ll be here on Friday.
Some nice links from Wednesday. Thanks for the great reading y’all.
I know you do precission drillin’ and fillin’ but are you gunna go against K this time?
Night all. Make some good trades tomorrow
whenever i sleep things reverse lol darn it!
Lenders filed an average of 272 foreclosure actions per day in October 2009 against properties in the tricounty South Florida region, representing an eight percent year-over-year increase compared to 2008 and an 86 percent increase from 2007, according to a new report from CondoVultures.com.
looks like you’ll be the owner of Florida Matt
(try to imagine thsi in your best Yoda voice)…So young K’walker, you have come over the dark side of the dentist, have you? hmmm,hmmm?
See you all tomorrow…
Phil
I am trying to get familiar with buying coupon treasuries as you suggested. I searched available bonds at my broker and one I came up with has a CUSIP of 912810EQ7. Are these the type bonds you are referring to? Do you have the CUSIP of a current holding of yours?
String
My canary made a remarkable recovery,the little shit is singing up a storm
STRING….you quoted the 6.25% treasury coupon bond maturing on 8/15/23…..priced @ 122.05 yield 4.133…..i prefer 912828KD1 2.75% coupon bond maturing feb15 2019….priced @ 94.03…..you will have almost 6 points of capital gains at maturity when it is redeemed at par (100)you dont have to pay that gain till it matures……i dont need the income so i would rather defer gains and not get the interest….also your 122 bond will be redeemed at par at maturity..you will be getting more interest ..the yield is higher because the bond is longer maturity..
SOLD DDM bought long ago for $4.05 gain…its ALL gone now
Phil
I don’t need the income either, and this is in an IRA account so taxes don’t matter. Do you envision holding till maurity? Do these things fluctuate in price much from week to week? Is interest paid monthly or semi-annual ?
TIA
String
Scotty, thanks for the laugh!
STRING….in ira i go for zero coupon treasuries….you dont have to pay the phantom income there….yield is higher also….buy into bond crash initially with coupons…when you think we are near bottom start going for zeroes
string..zeroes fluctuate wildly… its like FAZ CRACK….
Phil
Give me a CUSIP for a zero. I have a lot to learn here I can see.
String
STRING……better yet start with 10 yr coupons…..then when you think we are down enough where yields are juicy go for longer dated coupons…then if bottom falls out go for the zeroes then
string…..912833xp0 dated aug 15 2029 price 39.768…yield 4.718…if you can get the yield up to 7% you can double your money every 10 years….you pay 39 dollars now and get 100 dollars in 2029
Phil
Good chance I wont be here in 2029. How do I sell to cash out?
String
string……if the 20 yr zero i quoted can be obtained for 25 instead of 39.7 that would be around 7% ie QUADRUPLE in 20 years …it goes from 25 to 100 in 20 yrs..double in 10 and double next 10yrs…comprendo??
string…i can buy online but i need to call broker to sell…
Stringm,
IRA’s have a beneficiary clause in case these long dated coupons are in there and you’re feeding blue bonnets.
Mitch
I know about that plan for IRAs, but I have a different one. I want to be drinking my last nickles worth of beer the day I croak
String
Maybe we’ll get nickel beer before then. Lol
Gld sporting a h/s on the 5 mn. Anything above 107.50 will scare of the shape players. By days’ end we could fill the gap from the open.
That would be fill the gap from yesterday’s open.
1065 es must be cleared, below that it’s all subject to reversal
BOUGHT back in DDM @ 40.06….looking for test of top
TARGET for DDM near 41
Buckyball bounce.
You guys aren’t keeping things in check
whats up with UUP?
Anyone splain the open interest on UUP Strike $23 Nov & Dec. calls
Sotty
i was just about to comment on that. I am sitting here looking at the DX and it is up pennies. This morning it was up pennies and UUP was down. Now UUP is up .42 and had been up over .60 Where is the correlation?
String
? Someone in the know expect something?
http://www.market-ticker.org/archives/1589-More-Insider-Trading-UUP-Options.html
Scotty
Something is weird because the 65 AVG Volume for UUP is 2.5 Mil, we are approaching 9.5 Mil. Phil must be buying a helluva lot of dollars.
String
SCOTTY…..how do you like the DOLLAR now ???????????????????
Phil
The SEC will coming to see you soon!
String
I have dec 23 UUP calls! Hahahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahaha
yerk……good reporting with UUP………but this is what a real dollar squeeze will look like
zzzzzzzzzz
STRING…..everything was done thru a shell company in the caymans…they will never trace it to me
Phil aah its not doing anything
Will all stampedes now be suspect? Interesting way to corral traders . . . .
DOW 10100 is good enough to sell all DDM
Is it me, or is this rally on extremely little volume?
yes it is but big deal rally from March has been low volume
This is great right before the 10.1% unemployment rate.
K….that is baked in the cake
11% unemployment should send it to 11000…..right?????
Just a bit higher and UUP finishes filling a two month gap down in just one day!
I wanted 30 points down and instead got 30 up. At least one good decision os to have UUP options for 23 december LOL
of course phil that means rates will stay 0 for the next 10 years
China Faces A Dollar Shortage!
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-dollar-shortage-05-11-2009
it didn’t close above 1069 then thats weakness!! don’t ask questions on this one we’ll see how it plays out.
K…bought some QID in AH just in case of gap down tomorrow
nice phil,
good luck. i got some of the S tickers (not sprint but SDS etc lol)
oh phil, so we go down together. A bit risky, as the dax has to play catch-up and might move higher.
will wait for confirmation but TED went up as markets surged. check back in 3hours or so. 3.6% so far
that puts it above 50EMA
later.
I too nibbled on a few QID (and trying to buy SDS near the day’s lows) shares after hours (just got home) since 1066 is close enough to 1070 that I won’t quibble. I still only have 40% of the position in QID I want to accumulate, so I’m still exercising patience and letting the market come to me and complete this H&S pattern.
Phil, what do you reckon the TBT top price will be? I’ve got 500 shares and I’m thinking of selling most of it into the last gasps of this bull rally. I’ll probably keep 50 or 100 shares just in case my theory is wrong of a rush into Treasuries on a stock market pullback. The daily stochs are above 80 and looking to cross with any price weakness in TBT.
2th:
I have a feeling TBT heads to 60. Bernanke testified before The Senate Financial Comm. last year that foreigners and other holders of Agency Debt fled them for the safety of Treasuries. He was blunt about it in an, “I would have done the same thing too” kind of way. So, The Fed Res stepped in and started buying. At that time we had fewer primary dealers a fact I can get back to.
I don’t see the Arab countries continuing their treasury purchases. Their countrymen will demand a more prudent approach to the threatened commodity that once fueled treasury purchases. US Treasuries are not imprudent but certainly won’t maximize the returns they must have as this is their last shot to get full potential out of oil for decades if not forever.
China, will continue its purchases as it sees fit to negotiate it foreign holdings from its exports. I expect their purchases to lessen as their exports moderate. I’d also like to discuss, at some point, what I see as a rebirth of US exports on a scale not seen in two decades ( If the US takes on that challenge China and Germany won’t give up that ground easily ).
The new game on Wall Street, figuratively, because bond arbitrage can be done anywhere, will be primary dealers dealing treasuries. This should keep some sort of bid under the paper but subject it to volatility.
I could go on but TBT can go higher over the next two years – if that’s the vehicle one prefers . . . .
Mitch, thanks for the thoughts. I agree that when rates come back to “normal,” then TBT will be a winner. I’m thinking over the rest of this quarter to early 2010 **IF** there is a correction, then TBT is going to go down in value as the flight to safety trade starts up again. I’m with you though, there are fundamental reasons interest rates are going to go up, but perhaps not just yet is all. If I can make better money in some other vehicle and return to TBT later, then I need to sell and deploy the capital elsewhere.
The U.S. Treasury Department revealed it plans to sell a record $81 billion in its quarterly auctions of long-term debt next week and replace the inflation-protected 20-year bond with a reintroduced 30-year security.
I could have taken the past 10 days off and S&P would be at the same level
http://www.kirkreport.com/09/sp_11_5_09.gif
Checking in. Yes, I have made at least two trades each morning, scalps, but I’ve been missing the afternoon session. Nice diggs here in Duck, N.C.
What have you all been doing to the market? K, are you up to something?
Here’s a picture of one of my buddies where a fish jumped up onto the pier. I just happened to be there taking his picture.
http://i38.tinypic.com/30ljamp.jpg
George,
Not really Just insider trading on UUP and also trying to help out my dear Julie out. have missed you in the soup line.
Keep the soup hot, I’ll be back Monday in hot persuit of the Big Fish.
next year i’m still only keeping Fridays available for trading. I went against the 2 day school day lol
tomorrow i promise to heat the soup enough that it SLIDES DOWN your throat.
get the hints?
Gotcha, missing that natzi soup for sure… I’m having Mattgic withdrawal pains!
How far down the soup slides is the question. Or is this the “real deal” reversal? I haven’t studied that so I don’t know myself.
if we close above 1077 this week then my soup would be dumped on you when you come Monday.
Ah, I see what you’re aiming for K, resistance area in mid-September. SPY didn’t make a lower low and that gives it more juice to the upside. Except for a lower wick, the body of Thursday’s candle was an inside day which means nothing happened. And it isn’t forming a bull flag so it could go either way. 1077 should be no problem.
Time to dream about fishing. Later… Maybe tomorrow if the weather is bad.
I need more sleep but max am looking at 1077 but ideally 50 pt slide will be sufficient here to start the great panic.
I have a feeling the 777 day will be with you missing in action.
K,
Thanks for the big move. I was ready for a
move up or a move down and tomorrow
Adam gets new accounts after which I
will celebrate.
Good trading…make a ton.
Julie,
would that free up some more time for you not having to worry about managing 3-4 different accounts?
darn those brinks trucks!
Night!
K,
How will the numbers tomorrow be cooked???
K,
Good night.