I pushed the wrong button and accidentally deleted the Wednesday’s Trading post.
Judging by the level of the futures, I would say that they fell to an equivalent of SPY $114.50 after the Senate vote. SPY’s 60-minute slow stochastic was giving a pretty strong overbought signal, so I’m not surprised at the sell-the-news reaction. The Senate vote was a non-event, though the reaction of the futures seems to be causing low morale amongst traders.
The real deal is the House vote, which initially was supposed to be on Thursday, but seems to be pushed back to Friday now. If they don’t have the votes in advance, they will postpone it until next week. Imagine if there is no vote on Friday and the market is left with nothing but a big, ugly jobs report. The week could end badly, but like George said in the comments before I trashed them, it might wind the spring all the tighter for a strong reaction to the eventual House vote.
Remember a few weeks ago when Larry Kudlow was shouting how lower oil prices would save consumers money, which they could then use to pay off their mortgages and deliver a fairy-tale ending to this crisis? If that wasn’t pure lunacy, I don’t know what would be. I just paid $71 to fill up, and George can’t even buy gas at all. Hmmm, I guess that does leave George with more money for his mortgage after all…
I went short in the futures after seeing the initial reaction to the vote and am now sitting on some nice gains. I’m not going to take profits yet. There should be more bad economic news in the morning, and the market might want to sell-off a bit ahead of the jobs report – especially now that traders will be thinking twice about getting long in front of the House vote. And how many times can Warren Buffet save the world? How much cash does he have left?
Watch the comments for updates throughout the day.
Shazam! Now I know why I made that BBT no-trade rule, sucker dropped >$2 in 4 minutes!
Debate going on in House right now?
AH, traders selling off… just in case of bill failure.
ICE`s volume makes it easy 4 me to follow
Maybe a good idea to not have a trade on when they start voting.
George
thanks ….i`ll keep my study going
News articles say they won’t vote until tomorrow. I don’t trust that. The Senate voted early.
George – are they already voting ? Thought earliest was tomorrow with risk of next week ?
Much more vital – that running multiple timeframes thingee is a thing of beauty indeed. Muchas gracias.
Started stacking four indicators on each timeframe and you can’t believe how well they line up within and between frames: ROC, SlowStoch, MACD, TRIX.
Give ‘er a shot. The ROC is quickest, TRIX slowest but boy does it detect and then confirm. Then bounce up or down the timeframes it looks like.
Like to hear your thoughts, My Master
!
Average guy;
Watch ICE (or anything) cycle a few times and it will become more evident. ICE can be a volatile cookie, but it gives away its moves once you know what to look for.
The other day I got into ICE and just kept moving a stop up way below the current price. I use, believe it or not, stochastic bottoms to place stops. That’s the most logical place to put them.
Dblwyo;
That’s amazing to stack the indicators. What do you use? All on the same chart?
I’d like to have a multiple time frame overlay on one screen – if that’s what you’re talking about, you have the silver bullet.
Just came back from an hrs worth of real work ($40/hr computer work in the neighborhood) i’m cheap i know. time to check my losing stocks of the day lol
check out BLUD for a nice comeback maybe. earnings came great but early selloff killed it. i got killed with it. but it’s coming back hopefully
I just took profits on my short trade in the futures that I put on after the Senate vote last night. The market looks like it might want to stabilize here.
Dblwyo;
They are not voting now, they are doing their speeches. I don’t have the TV on, I just check Google every 30 minutes.
Another thing I use is Wilder’s RSI with a value of “2″. When it drops below 20 at the same time as the stochastic, it is very reliable for picking bottoms. That is great to use for scalping.
Now, that indicator works better on some charts than others. It works great on Askresearch, but I haven’t found the Wilder’s on Stockcharts.
Try it.
isn;t wilder’s the same as RSI?
WTG Matt.
I wonder if any of the democrats thought about the fact that if Obama wins, he would name a Treasurer, so if they can delay a little longer, Paulson misses the boat…
K;
I don’t know. The Wilder’s I use has a solid line with an immediate movement whereas the Stockcharts is more like an average movement.
Matt – yes indeed. Indicator stack showed that. Watching, not trading – learning. Last week’s experiment was $.
George – those are committee hearings not the House vote. Just listened to Sen. Harken (all this on C-Span) reading all the alt. recommendations into the record.
Now to answer: first off running WinXP (hate Vista, don’t trust) and Firefox. Keeping stockcharts SPX on 1,5,15 min on separate tabs. You could do separate windows and side x side ‘em; and/or use multiple monitors. Get you what you’re after but this works for me with some delay.
On each have SPX with 36/72/108 MA – SPX first ran into resistance on 36MA on 1Min. Others too discombobulated from big swings. Indicator stack (top to bottom) is ROC, SlowSto, MACD, TRIX. Wilder’s not available that I saw. But you can just watch it move and turn. Beautiful.
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/10/google-goog-bre.html
google breakdown apple next?
Dblwyo;
Great!
Thanks
While stocks are stabilizing at the moment, the VIX is up again and new 52-weeks lows on the NYSE are up to 408. So, things still look pretty shaky.
Dblwyo;
I’m using Opera. It has those tabs. Will comply.
Got to think they are taking it lower so they can buy in since it seems fairly sure the bill will pass. Either that or it closes lower than here.
I have a QID position and the volume is much higher on the moves down than up.
The market sold off ahead of the jobs report on September 5th, and bottomed about two hours after the report was released, and then rallied. We may be seeing a similar pattern now.
102 seems SKF’s problem.
ICE is like a wild horse ready to jump out of the chute.
I’m pretty much just watching today as well. Matt, nice gains. Are you now all cash?
K,
Thanks for the Goog chart. I’m a big buyer somewhere in that $310-340 range, maybe something I’d be willing to hold for a while. Eventually all that ad revenue will pay for a breakthrough.
For you POTheads a little info from the real world. From BNN a vidclip on MER’s downgrades and the fundamentals:
http://watch.bnn.ca/clip98011#clip98011
skf has ascending triangle and if 102 breaks watch out above
oh noes… scottrade… Your request could not be processed at this time. If the problem persists, please call your local branch
Dblwyo;
I’m set up on one machine. Nice. So easy.
Picasso would be proud.
on double noes.. ameritrade..
Balance information is currently unavailable. Please try again later.
The ICEman cometh… I’m hoping.
grr i can;t trade@!!! was traying to sell SKF !!! if it reverses on me i’ma be pissed as scottrade
Lot of market orders rather than limit orders coming in. Sup I wonder?
very weird. ameritrade and scottrade took a beating at the same time.
George – cool. Amazing what just is lying around. Let us know how it works. Pardon my asking you know you can run multiple monitors off one machine so if you ran a couple of 17″ you could have SPX, SDS/SSO, xxxx on different monitors multi-tabbed or multi-windowed and run out the string until you ran out of memory. Of which you’d need a lot.
George, how can you tell (market vs limit orders)?
Also,it could just be fear as we were testing a 52-week (and then some) low.
VIX is like gasoline. 40 is the new 30, just like $4 is the new $3.
Anybody expect gold to be down almost 4% when we tested the low?
skf is turning out of my reach. Scottrade just fked up again. DAMN THEM
am really frustrated am sorry for the spamming.
I hope just because what’s hoping to the broker’s websites hell breaks loose right now so my skf can execute and i can sleep tight
1:52PM!
The Securities and Exchange Commission backed down on a major part of its effort to limit short selling.
Late Wednesday, the regulator said that institutional investors’ short positions won’t be made public, a major change from an earlier ruling that had upset several prominent hedge-fund managers and short sellers including James Chanos.
The ban won’t run beyond Oct. 17, though.
“K Says: October 2nd, 2008 at 1:53 pm
skf has ascending triangle and if 102 breaks watch out above”
http://i37.tinypic.com/15ofcds.jpg
ABT holding up well
dow 10480
Paul F;
Those hugh spikes are market orders. Not made during the making of the candle but spikes during the making. The market maker or specialist is giving investors what they want – where the MM & Spec gives it to them. Some of those are a few cents, others are dollars.
I’m talking about the candle wicks that are outside of the true range. Check out ICE on the 1 and 5 minute.
Are they lifting the ban on short selling COB today? Have not seen anything on this.
Will SDS make it to 77? I think it will go to 77.77 – now, where have I seen that before?
looks like trades r set around dow 10480
see how long that holds
out of SKF at 103.06 i had a limit at 103.87 but heck this market can nip me in the bud anytime now.
i hope they pass the bill tomorrow. stocks rise monday then back to business for poppa. what time is the bill getting voted on tomorrow?
Nice spot on SKF, K. I hope they pass the bill as well, then the uncertainty will start to leave.
K
seems traders in SKF shifted to SRS
may switch back after Oct.17
passed bill should be good 4 gold
used your RSI idea george as you can see at the end of the pic.
http://i37.tinypic.com/15ofcds.jpg
as soon as it neared 70 and was being pushed down i became skeptical.
even if SKF goes to 110 i am happy i was able to “time” it right before it started walking downhill again.
Woo hoo 2:00 rally
i’ve got BLUD and CEF still so i am hoping a bounce from the bill can get me out of them with profit.
BLUD was a bad morning move lol. still learning self discipline. it’s HARD
Wow ICE really moves
i have to get set up with charts
thanks to Matt & George i can scalp !
Average guy. i cesond that. short term ideas can help me learn quicker. then i can use same indicators for long term trades.
I am out of free daytrades. next one will cost me 25k margin which i don’t have
Here comes the buy back to tomorrow’s vote?
K
nice trade & chart
now u time to study & refine
You Go, Average guy – pick away and nibble, nibble, nibble at it. At EOD you’ll have some good change in your pocket.
Next step will be to detect trends within the smaller time frames.
It’s all good.
http://content.cartoonbox.slate.com/?feature=5e4ef934818463c23b48eb09004bbf2c
sorry
this has been me the past 2 days
Today’s last hour = yesterday?
the wheels falling? SKF is baak ?
let’s go down 95 more points. Great Setup for tomorrow.
Double top SDS 1 minute. Hope it breaks 76.
double top SKF 15 min….so far.. might not be double top for long .
As the SPX tests Monday’s low, it has a positive MACD divergence on its hourly chart. The momentum of the selling on Monday was off the charts since the market was surprised, so maybe MACD won’t tell us anything useful here. But so far, MACD is saying that the market is testing the low methodically rather than in a panic. Maybe the jobs report will push the SPX a bit under the low tomorrow, and then maybe the House vote will produce a bounce.
Nope. not this time. I’m out.
I’ll scalp it if it moves above 76.
Come on buyers, make it swing the other way..
skf is trying for the GOLD ($104 lol)
drop 60 more mr market dow jones
would any of you feel like buying overnight?
60 more points down and i’l'll be happy if it closes at that then POW a bouncy bouncy which i will not participate in/.
Matt – would you mind a bit more explanation. Looking at a 5Da/60min SPX and MACD is not headed in a different direction than the SPX. Perhaps my tools won’t do what you’re looking at or I don’t really get divergences, and what to look for and how.
Thanks.
if indu closes under 10440 it will have broken beyond today’s down trend hence deeming it very buyable from my newbie side.
http://i35.tinypic.com/24gjg5t.jpg
Cha-Ching,,, SDS just doesn’t want to quit. Sentiment of the future?
Greenspan says markets to recover … SELL!
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/10/greenspan-says-markets-to-recover-sell.html
haha now we know why the sell off happened
George,
there are no shorts that are covering.. cause shorting is banned
Couldn’t resist this week’s almost perfect double-bottom. The bottom is in – Fed, GS, FDIC you name it approved.
That is why there are no buyers
Charlie;
Gotcha. I have a feeling folks are using the inverse to hedge.
Greenspan is just betting on the bailout.
Without the bailout, fundamentals – not “an excess of fear” – will take financials into the gutter and he knows it. That would be sweet justice if the latest big purchases (JPM/WaMu, Citi/Wachovia, BoA/Merrill) just serve to drag the big three down faster.
Dblwyo,
The divergence on the MACD refers to the fact that the MACD today (either signal lines or the histogram) is not as negative today as it was on Monday. However, tomorrow can change that picture, and also, as Matt mentioned, the price drop was a stunner on Monday which could skew things.
We’re not looking at “what direction” the MACD is headed per se, but rather at what level did today’s “trough” (if it is one) occur in relation to the trough on Monday. Make sense?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p95609169653&a=152481295&listNum=3&listNum=3
Doomsday scenario: Terrible jobs report tomorrow + House rejecting Bailout bill again…. anyone a buyer if we see Dow 10,000 or less?
9,999 and i’m in.
Crimson Ghost, when Matt sees your posting you’ll be in deep shit.
jgirl – thanks. Not sure yet, will thimpk on it some more. What I think I’m seeing is that the bottom of that MACD today wasn’t as deep as that for Mon’s stunner – the House surprise present so to speak. That close ?
If so it’s a little bit different a use of the divergence notion than I’ve read but would make sense. In a way it’s almost a divergence within an indicator between on reading and another ?
Thanks for the explanation and chart. Others might want to look at – especially what you did to MACD.
Crimson Ghost once again? do i have to quote dressguard who quotes Matt?
“YOU SHITHEAD”
What I actually dropped by to say was:
a) if we get any kind of rally 1181 on the SPX would be the Fib 38.1%
b) the recent lows just about break the 61.8% Fib from the ’03 trough to the Oct07 peak. Next stop is (lost my chart) ~ 850+/-
All of a sudden real econ news is scaring people more than usual and the talk about FinInd bottoms seems to have disappeared. Wonder why ? Don’t whether they’ve switched meds or wokeup and can smell the napalm but….
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/EconCharts/EconQ308/ConSlsAug08.jpg
Real sales and consumption are way below ’03, dropping fast, almost as low now as ’90 and look headed for the same YoY drops we had ~’75 and ’80. Now there was a recession, yessir…let me tell ya.
Dblwyo,
“Divergence” occurs when the price of the stock (or index) makes a new low (or retests the same low) but the MACD makes less of a low than on the first plunge.
My chart was to try to show this to you graphically. Be very careful. Myself, I don’t like to call the MACD trough until I get the signal lines or the histogram showing me the MACD isn’t still falling downhill.
Guys thanks to Barry Ritholtz I am going to watch this hedge fund. haha
http://strategerycapital.com/
have been listening to the conference since 5pm
Ritholtz – stunned that gold is under $1,000. Massively inflationary policies coming up. Difference between gold coins and paper gold on futures markets. That gap will get bigger. A good place for 5 or 10 percent of a portfolio.
he also said that short ban doesn’t give the market a parachute and there is no floor.
Dressguard,
I’m pretty sure that Crimson Ghost never saw my warnings. I don’t think that he reads the comments, and is more of a troll-type. I had to hit the spam button on his last comment. I don’t think WordPress will let him post comments anymore, at least with the same email address. Maybe he will figure it out now.
Matt
you better not tell the secret matt. delete your last post
btw for those that didn;t hear the conference call..
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/10/live-blogging-roubini-ritholtz-credit.html
as you can see i am famous as I got included in a blog post haha
(@ 6:12pm)
Does anybody know when da House will vote tomorrow? I heard it will be during the afternoon but couldn’t find any credible source.
@Matt: Good you told us this email trick cause I’m a troll-type too.
K, I scalped an $8 profit on a POT short. I only missed 90% of the move.