Since I mentioned the XLU utilities ETF back here, it is up 0.68% nicely outperforming the SPX, which is down 1.65%. However, with oil rolling over, it’s starting to look like the smart money has moved into the utes as a defensive play. Utilities pay nice, safe dividends.
George has mentioned the tight Bollinger Bands on the daily charts, and they are indeed tight. Though in the case of USO, they’re getting stretched – to the downside. That’s not a good thing. If I get time, I will post a chart, but the Fractal Dimension Index on USO’s daily chart is only down to 1.49, indicating that the trend is not yet mature. The FDI is not magic, but it is saying that there is more room on the downside. For the bulls, USO did have heavy volume on Wednesday, and the last time it did that, on September 23rd, it did indeed mark a swing low.
The traders on Fast Money have been hopeful about gold all week. So I would expect gold to keep falling until they barf up their longs, get short, and turn negative.
Larry,
Hard to believe that other countries cook
the numbers more than the U.S.
George,
Google…geyser heat pump hot water heater…
Claim you use 370% less electricy to heat water.
The hook-up they show looks simple. Also looks
like it would pay for itself quickly. Your thoughts.
European Central Bank Privately Worries Baltics Are The Next Debt Crisis
http://www.businessinsider.com/european-central-bank-secretly-planning-for-a-baltic-crisis-2009-12
Matt,
How was my timing on calling a gold drop last thursday? I asked for $200 in a day but got $100 in a week and with you agreeing there might be more downside
7:30 futes. nas up 8.25, gold up a bit…
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 71.08 +0.41 +0.58
Natural Gas 4.933 +0.035 +0.72
Corn 383.5 -1.5 -0.39
Soybeans 1028.5 -15.5 -1.51
30yr Bond 118.71875 -0.5625 -0.47
10yr Note 118.640625 -0.140625 -0.12
NY Gold 1124.5 +3.6 +0.32
NY Silver 17.365 +0.185 +1.06
Emini S&P 1101.25 +5.75 +0.52
Emini Nasdaq 1800.75 +8.25 +0.46
Emini Dow 10373 +43 +0.42
Thanks for “tinyurl”ing my chart George. Easier to share that way.
Yes, K, nice call on gold. Fib support at 106.88, so I’m looking to find some GLD at 107ish for a run up to 123. Thanks for the update on the Fast Money crowd. I don’t watch them anymore at all!
SSO trade is working well so far. Trailing stop is now above my entry point, so that is always a sigh of relief! To the top of the megaphone!!! Then back to 1050 Max Pain, please!
Drill, baby, Drill!
2thfixr,
That’s a long way to the top of the megaphone. My goals are to see which way price breaks out of Matt’s rectangle. Of course, I’ll be scalping along the way.
Shorts still being squeezed.
Unemployment coming in below expectations — the unadjusted figures a lot below –
The unemployment numbers in CA improved by far the most of any state at -28,672. “Decrease due to a shorter workweek, as well as fewer layoffs in the service industry.” Not so good.
(In the last post, I should have said the numbers came in above expectation, but I was thinking below water.)
Time for nat gas to crash at 10:30
Well, isn’t that special… another SPY gap up on the daily. It just can’t get any better.
phil,
That SPY intraday gap I was talking about yesterday on the 15min got filled today. Now it has one on the downside. If it can go higher and hit the top of the box, that would be a great possible short.
George, there’s more than one way to scalp a cat! Thanks for the screenshot pic of 2thfixr’s chart.
What’s going on here is “de boyz and de girlz” are making as many waves as possible ‘cuz that’s the way profits are made. Yea for them – and us.
Mitch,
Are you using a phone to track the market? Is that why you can’t use Flash or Silverlight?
Just tell K what you want to do and he’ll fix it for you.
K’s motto is: “There’s a hack for that”.
George,
My guess is I’m part of the 3% AT&T is complaining about using 90% of the 3G pipe. There are times when I’m just not at a PC but would like to view an interactive chart. No mobile flash or silverlight hurts the untethered!
Mitch,
I LIKE THAT “there’s more than one way to scalp a cat!” Permission to use that at times, Sir!
I missed the play on ICE. But not on BBT, it’s 15min has been positive since late yesterday.
SPY using 5min 9MA as support – keeps bouncing off it.
added more xiu.to jan 16.50 puts @ .3
Mitch,
I’m in the same boat… I can’t get ATT here at the house but 200ft up the road I can get 3G.
I use StockCharts on the iPhone. It isn’t streaming but that’s not really needed in most cases. It can update (refresh) as quickly as 15 seconds. At least the screen and all indicators can be seen well.
I doubt if Apple will ever allow Flash or Silverlight on the iPhone. Although, Silverlight, from my understanding, is un-hackable.
Anytime you need to see a chart, holler and we’ll post a pic.
Mitch,
I should add that StockCharts can update as quickly as you can hit the “update” button if needed. Sort of manual streaming.
MATT……i saw that breakout on utilities….they lead the bond market( thats why i was interested)…going to buy the XLU……..MATT are you enjoying our beautiful fla weather?……regards…..phil
MITCH. dumped my TBT at the open…just have small amout left..did not buy any bonds yet….crash possible..i want to buy AFTER the bond crash…will add more TBT if it drops near 46
i checked a few things like srs, faz, edz, fxp, not down very much at all…why is the nas relatively strong ?
phil,
You sound like me – a contrarian trader.
George,
You’re quite the gentleman.
phil,
Just 13 billion in bonds (30s – the only bond) to be auctioned. That may cause some buying pressure waaaaay out on that curve.
LOOKS like 110.20 is going to hold in GLD..i am going to buy some there
GEORGE..look at that 1 min spike on GLD to 110.20….suspicious?
Hmmm, that move up on SPY got smacked down rather quickly.
Phil,
The same thing happened to SPY.
SPY could bounce here again off its 5min 36MA.
we’re waiting……..waiting for what?….waiting for GODOT……ahhhhhhh
SPY is just a couple of ticks away from starting a downtrend.
It needs to catch a bid soon or los endos.
SRS making another dive like yesterday. The last time it recovered but could be turning over now.
MITCH….want to dump rest of TBT at 48.58….still dont want to buy any bonds yet
Treasury futures revealing anything to you phil?
Stringm – MIA, hope he’s in on this action.
mitch…remember we discussed test/break of TLT low @ 87.55? welllllllll..it could be a lot worse than i thought…we may bounce there but i am seeing 5 wave moves down and 3 up……ie not good ….i am letting cash build up …till i get a better handle on bonds
mitch….if bonds break we could be looking at 5.3% ten year note…prob 6% on 30 yr
Tops on SRS.
Phil,
TBT filled that 11-10 gap (47.93) at 12:41 today.
I may have to find a good TBT chart. If I pick up a ruler it’s to smack a cat with (just kiddin George).
mitch…that would mean a secular turn in rates…ie i will reverse course…invest in TBT instead of bonds
mitch..200dsma TBT right at level of last 2 peaks near 48.50….was rejected both times
Mitch,
I use a broom to smack them cats.
George,
I’ve been way too nice to you and spoiled you lately
International trade class is over with. 4 exams to go and I can trade for a month (assuming I don’t go back to work at my summer job)
K,
Great to have you back! I want you to post those links you have everyday. You a good editor.
There’s been some intraday gapping today. Happens some time, but rarely.
SPY 15min stochastic turned up on that last bottom with a Tres Cruzar. However, it is nearing tops so it needs to turn its 15min MACD up for a good run.
I knew that would happen while I had no service underground. Well someone hotta stop it font you think?
That’s the thing about ranging and congestion areas, there are so many support and resistance areas where price gets trapped on various time frames.
Something to ponder: If SRS and SKF are up when the S&P is also up, just think what they’ll do when the S&P goes down which will most likely start around Dec. 16th or so.
Jim,
My long-range target for SKF is $80.
george gaps dont always fill http://thereformedbroker.com/2009/10/20/carter-worth-on-filling-the-gap/
Phil,
Those gaps filled, I’ll post a chart tonight to show that. I sure ain’t gonna commit suicide.
George: Do you have a core position in SKF?
SRS Green DZZ Green, SPY green? HMMM
AAPL RED!!!
yep down we go.
George: Merry Death’s opinion on financial stocks.
http://pragcap.com/meredith-whitney-our-problems-are-getting-worse
Jim,
Yes, I have a core position in SKF, SDS and SRS. They’re not huge but enough to keep me honest. I got SKF on Oct 14th, SDS Dec 4th and SRS Dec 4th, with a stop .02c below their shadow lows on those day.
They could turn out to be swing trades depending upon what their daily/weekly charts do in the next few days.
Merry Death – Ha, LOL! hehe, I wish I had thought of that.
http://cdn.holytaco.com/www/sites/default/files/images/2009/11/Flowchart-Mistress.jpg
Jim, why a date of the 16th for the mkt going down ?
So much to say and so little time before I have to leave the house. Great posts today folks.
Jim, nice call on UNG so far. I think wave 5 completed at that low below the high $8 handle I pointed out and its been going nicely up since.
GLD filled its gap, so now just the Fibs of the retracement are in play as support: 113.12, 110, and 106.88. Hence the hold at 110ish area today. Phil, I haven’t checked, is MAX PAIN on GLD at 108 still?
Phil, is MAX PAIN on SPY still at 105? How about these apples–we go up to make new highs on the SPY or touch the megaphone top, but it is a false breakout, and we break out of the rectangle on the DOWNSIDE and plow 30 points lower by the 18th for $SPX of 1055 or so?
Agree about the supports and resistance issues of this rectangle. Very congested trading area.
Jim, I too have a core position in TBT, SDS, and QID. If the market heads south, I’m not going to care if I got in at SPX 1050 or 1100 when it is below 900 and falling.
Speaking of the $NDX, nice gravestone doji today. Candlestick fan here. If it breaks above the top of the high from today, the candlestick is invalid, otherwise, it is a bearish reversal pattern.
Gotta run, but I’ll catch up with George and others tomorrow when I’m home watching things up close and personal. Adios.
2TH FIXER http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php
There is no such thing as a Santa Claus Rally — that is to say, not until after Christmas! In the meantime, there’s still lots of time to tank.
Santa close rally? People are selling their short stocks for a loss at the moment. After new years they will buy them again. Opposite with stocks. They will cash in profits and use the money to go short
Kailash,
There is too a Santa Rally. Either the underlying or the inverse will go up.
Have you hugged an Inverse today?
This daily SPY chart is getting interesting. I believe I read somewhere that price will make its way 2/3rds of the way in this pattern before it breaks. A few more days should do it.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=3185f682-744e-46a8-a04a-807d92d84a18
Mitch,
Here’s the SPY chart in pic format:
http://i46.tinypic.com/2qdmtsj.jpg
phil,
Good link. Tks
K,
By the looks of the ‘holytaco” (where DO you find these things?) website, you’re preparing a long-range plan.
George,
Thanks for the chartpic. Today’s candle looks like a spinning top with a short wick and even shorter tail.
phil,
You said:
“mitch…remember we discussed test/break of TLT low @ 87.55?”
Yes! I remember that. Bonds and financials have been in a slow fade . . .