Idiot Expert
If you google “larry kudlow is an idiot”, you will see that Google considers me to be the 7th top-ranked expert on the subject. People actually come to this blog after doing such a search. Speaking of which… Kudlow has been absolutely giddy at the prospect of a flat jobs report on Friday with job growth coming back in early 2010. I repeat: Larry Kudlow is an idiot. The economy is still shedding jobs at a frightening pace. I don’t pretend to know what the BLS will conjure up with their birth/death model magic on Friday, but rest assured, the jobs report still has the potential to deliver a nasty surprise. But even if it does, that doesn’t mean that the market won’t rally. Kudlow doesn’t even realize how enthusiastically the nation has embraced his Favelanomics: export jobs as fast as possible and accept a dramatically lower standard of living for the average Joe in the name of corporate profits. That’s the name of the game. When IBM staffs-up in India and Argentina, and fires workers here in the USA, its profits soar, and so does its stock. High unemployment in the USA equals high “labor arbitrage” profits for all of our fabulous global mega-corporations.
Joe Sixpack ain’t got no job and can only afford to buy $7 mechanical hamsters for his kids this year. St. Louis-based Cepia LLC, isn’t in the S&P 500, but they follow the same dynamic: they are staffing up to meet the soaring demand for their Zhu Zhu hamsters – in China, of course. Their new Chinese workers will be buying iPhones for their kids next Christmas. After Larry Kudlow cuts off Joe Sixpack’s unemployment benefits (one of Kudlow’s causes), Joe will only be able to afford $3 mechanical mice next year. You heard it hear first: mechanical mice are the hot product for Christmas 2010. And yes, it is a vicious circle: newly impoverished Americans are now dependent upon cheap products made in China, which forces more production to be moved to China…
Note to Cepia: think small: hamsters this year, mice in 2010, roaches in 2011, insects in 2012, bacteria in 2013, and viruses in 2014.
The Jobs “Puzzle”
Big jobs summit in Washington today. The Wall Street Journal thinks the problem is a “puzzle” – like some incomprehensible Rubic’s Cube from hell. Ridiculous! And as I predicted, it doesn’t look like anybody will even utter phrase “revoke NAFTA”. Certainly not Newt Gingrich at his shadow summits. Not the Democrats. And not even the labor unions. The S&P 500 is poised to rack-up its first losing decade in history, and bringing the factories home isn’t even a topic of discussion. Amazing.
early futes…
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 76.79 +0.19 +0.24
Natural Gas 4.558 +0.028 +0.60
Corn 406.5 -8.00 -1.94
Soybeans 1034.0 -25.5 -2.41
30yr Bond 121.25 +0.03125 +0.03
10yr Note 119.109375 -0.4375 -0.37
NY Gold 1223.4 +10.4 +0.87
NY Silver 19.44 +0.115 +0.60
Emini S&P 1109.5 +1.5 +0.14
Emini Nasdaq 1794.25 +2.75 +0.15
Emini Dow 10454 +15 +0.14
Gold shares did well yesterday but I don’t think GDX is at an all time high…is this a tell at all on gold or not relevant ?
after, thanks. Not sure about the gold correlation. I’ve heard that if gold stocks don’t progress with gold that’s a warning – similar to TNX with SPY. However, that isn’t always the case with TNX.
Giv’em hell Matt!!!! I like it.
After,
I typed you an answer but heard that Trichet spoke a riddle that put a bid under currency. Producers will trade gold for currency when they would prefer the currency to their produced gold. At that point their upside is limited.
Works for me for now. Lol
Matt, your analysis (Idiot Expert) is flawless.
A “summit” of the very “experts” who have championed free trade and other means of destroying America is beyond belief.
phil,
Livin’ the dream! Just as you said.
Matt, could you provide a link to the source of info that you derived your withholdings chart from. Would love to see current numbers…..thanks
BOUGHT more TLT at open @ 94.41
CNBC just reported that Reuters has reported that the White House thinks the unemployment rate will rise in tomorrow morning’s jobs report. It sounds like the White House has leaked the jobs number again. The last time they did it, it was for an upside surprise and it turned out to be correct.
ISM non-manufacturing for November falls to 48.7 vs 50.6 in October (Source: CNBC-RT News).
Phifin,
Thanks. Here is the page:
http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/
I am considering bringing the charts back in time for the next NFP report a month from now. I’m still tracking the data, and there has been no improvement. In fact, the year-over-year comparisons continue to be appalling.
Matt
started with a few vix calls, dec 24 @ .95
i see GLD down 1.07
can we puncture the 101 price by dec exp for my puts at that strike ? lol
also add xiu jan 16.5 puts for a quarter each…this is a .to representing the toronto index.
was trying for some 4 cent puts for dec but i guess someone got there first or filled the ask, lol…
i’ll sign off while vix is only 4 cents from the day high, don’t wanna be tempted into more activity lol
MATT, thanks for the link and update
DId I mention more all-time lows on some of the inverse = all-time opportunity? Especially when this short-covering dries up.
SKF intraday gap filled.
The White House is now saying that they do not have the jobs number, and that Reuters was fibbing.
George: Is the bottom in on skf today? Looks like it could be to me. What say you?
Jim,
I think the bottom on SKF could have been on Oct 14th. I’m basing that upon the last daily stochastic cycle did not make a new low. That could change, but looking at SRS, its daily stochastic low being built now, it is higher than the previous low.
Stochastic is “relative” to previous volatility and price ranges and need to be examined in that context.
I’m looking for SRS to wiggle its way over on the 5min for a move up.
URE on its 5min 36MA support which is SRS’s resistance. BBT making nice moves today.
SKF has been making a great run today. Scalping the 1min stochastic cycles.
For you technical experts. I see 3 island tops (or I think I see it) on SPX in a 1 month view. What does this mean?
Sold my small longs, going 20 Short/80 cash.
Good night and thanks.
Here’s what I’ve been watching on the SPY 5min:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2acda15e-99f4-4762-b4dd-f70cccbe475c
Updated 5min to incorporate all of today’s moves on the SPY.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=5ab1f4e3-a561-4945-958e-90e92ea2aa25
Intraday tops on URE, 3 time frames.
Ah, SPY wimping out? Would like to see it go make tops at the last high.
Jim,
Getting close to a new bottom on SRS… maybe. It made a double bottom and is retracing a bit. We’ll see. The daily stochastic is still higher than previous but needs to turn up now to save the day – or decade.
Obama administration is very peculiar. We live in interesting times.
Larry,
Look at the “weekend” effect of the gaps.
Nice pop on the inverse.
Have you hugged an inverse today?
George: Thanks for the info.
Jim,
Great call on SKF this morning:
http://www.trivisonno.com/thursdays-trading-12309/comment-page-1#comment-52020
That was good for a 2% move.
Matt
When I get my 200 buck gold move in a day we’ll be back to reality. If I get home soon enough I’m adding a january gold put to my weapons.
I am liking that SKF!
Dare any of us even think the top is in today from the March lows?
Yeah, Jim, WTG! Volatility is sweet!
MAMA MIA S&P futures broke below 200EMA Hourly!! that was FASTTTTTT
ohh btw check out DZZ instead of GLD puts.
Jim,
I guess every top is different. I look at the weekly for clues.
Smokin’!
Short-covering coming up?
Guess what acted as S&P resitance again?
that’s right… Trendline from march low. we were below it. it tested it yesterday and failed and tested today and got crushed…
all am seeing is -8.88 hmm George… -888 instead of -777 sounds good to you?
nah George. No short covering today. too much of a hint when everything i watch is red…
K,
Interesting how it falls faster than it rises?
Climb a wall of worry, fall a wall of….(?)
up $2 on GLD put.
Wow, what a great day. Time for the gym.
K,
The bigger the number, the better!
added some stuff,
qqqq dec 42 puts # .24
a bit more sds, avg down there
and hxd.to
near end of day prices for the others…
im glad i got home 10 mins before close.
go do your gymming George.
If the highly touted Rectangle has a downside breakout according to the Trend123 piece George posted we should get a throwback to the bottom if the old box – don’t get shook – ain’t no such thang as half-way shorts- lol
i read a lot of articles and data just now proving a double dip recession
this is the icing on the cake
Goldman Holds Emergency Meetings, Begging Shareholders Not To Block Huge Bonuses
http://www.businessinsider.com/rumor-japan-looking-to-sell-off-us-treasuries-2009-12
YAY
GS, should have paid a fair dividend all along – you know since that’s who OWN’S the enterprise right?
Bonus fine, more dividend a must. Ok,enough rabble rousing for me.
Btw Matt,
Per my business.. I’m estimating to make 10% more in revenue than last year while working 25% less hours. LOL
just a fun fact
K,
This Japan rumor doesn’t surprise me. The new administration in Japan is showing indications of switching its political allegiance from Washington to Beijing. They want to re-open negotiations on a military-base agreement with the USA, and they are backing out of a fueling mission with the US Navy:
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=108557§ionid=351020403
Transferring our industrial base to China may have far more severe consequences than mere unemployment.
Matt
Bank of America will price a huge common share offering tonight, in its bid to raise capital and repay TARP ASAP, CNBC reports.
FUNNY Stuff
Sorry blogfolk, I’ve been busy. I’m sure you all missed me…yeah, right.
Tried to get some SDS love yesterday, bought at $35.60 pre-market and had a stop loss at $35.30, and obviously got taken out when SPX get to 1115. Today, put in an order for SDS at $35.25 and didn’t get stopped out at $35, so I’m still holding it at $36.30 for a nice $1 start to the profits. The trailing stop is still in the profitable range, so barring any ridiculous gap openings on the SPX, I’ll look to trade some at the bottom of the rectangle on a decent turn back upwards.
Nice work to Jim and George on the trading today (SKF, GLD puts, etc…). Have you ditched the UNG Jim, or are you holding on still? I haven’t checked it yet, so not sure where it was today.
Did you see the GS sell off today? The financials are looking very, very shaky.
Those that know who Nomi Prins is will read this and listen up. Those that don’t, add her name to the list of people to listen to in the future.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-12-01/worse-than-enron/full/
See you all Friday.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_rufrpeKdZ38/SxgvXICb-OI/AAAAAAAAF1o/9JyO41IpOUY/s1600-h/jpm.png
japan denying the treasury dump LOL