This chart in the Wall Street Journal looks awfully similar to my chart that I publish here, does it not? As you can imagine, I will have more to say about this soon.
This chart in the Wall Street Journal looks awfully similar to my chart that I publish here, does it not? As you can imagine, I will have more to say about this soon.
Woah, “You Don’t Tug on Superman’s Cape…” (Jim Croce).
Here’s an updated MOO/DOO chart (no relation to VOO DOO). I’ve shrunk it down so the gaps can be seen. There’s no significance to the circle’s size and position, only to dramatize its existance. I originally was going to make it an ATR but that keeps changing and I don’t like moving targets.
http://i45.tinypic.com/24n0ccm.jpg
Based on my numbers they’re off by about 10% given the most recent MTS.
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 79.60 -0.40 -0.50
Natural Gas 4.820 -0.039 -0.80
Corn 386.25 +7.50 +1.94
Soybeans 963.0 +3.5 +0.36
30yr Bond 118.18750 +0.46875 +0.40
10yr Note 118.078125 +0.031250 +0.03
NY Gold 1093.0 -4.2 -0.38
NY Silver 15.775 -0.188 -1.18
Emini S&P 1099.75 -3.75 -0.34
Emini Nasdaq 1806.75 -7.25 -0.40
Emini Dow 10327 -28 -0.27
Haha! Good eyes Matt. 2001 data as well huh? Why choose that year anyways? They will aargue 10 year frame.
Thanks Matt for publishing your essays early enough for me to read them before work. I appreciate it.
Futures have slipped to down more than 6 on the S&P at this point. 10 points up, 10 points down…if you get the direction right, money to be made!
George,
Will the Bloom fuel cell meet the same fate
as cold fusion? Plan to look at a unit in
operation. If it works as promoted, plan
to buy a unit to power our 3 homes.
Congress says that people who scalp
the market will pay for the health insurance
of the people who don’t. THANKS!!!
Matt – cheer up. Worth noting but it happens all the time. Good example is CalcRisk’s Employment duration charts which became a regular feature of the NYT’s Economix blog. Other examples – actually had the WSJ write a story (stories) that followed along the lines of several posts looking at the history of debt and the economic impact. Take it as flattering (actually more than that – the basic analysis and some very good and clean charts ended up as a major section in the EconRpt of the President – whatever the connection can it get any better?)
Speaking of recent posts with potentially interesting ideas you might want to take a gander at the latest Mkt/Econ/Business/Mental Breakdown summary:
Welcome to Murphy’s World: Markets, Economies, Policy & Fragilities
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2010/02/welcome_to_murphys_world_marke.html
There’s one econ chart in there y’all might want to print and stash – makes you your own instant economic analyst using the stuff that’s worked for me for the last several years in an easy-to-read-it-off table. At least that’s the theory
!
phil says:
February 23, 2010 at 1:02 pm
I SEE a completed ABC correction..could be another low coming.. it would all fit perfectly @ 1085
GEORGE>>>>>>>>>>>and here it comes….waiting to buy near 1085…should complete correction then blast up through 1150 if we can trap enough bears
Paula,
Last year and this year, I’ve converted two homes to non-vented LP Gas for heating. This has created a big savings – almost unbelievable. I plan to do more. Big companies will fight fuel cells, unlike digital photography where it was a sure thing.
If Washington puts restrictions on trading – of any type – I fear it will create unintended consequences. I’ll figure out a way to work around that. They won’t like the results of lost revenue either.
If they want folks to invest, they should concentrate on creating a business (capitalist) environment for investing. Will the Jobs Bill work toward that? I don’t know.
I make profits, pay taxes on them, spend money and pay taxes on that… do they really want me to stop doing that?
They don’t have a clue!
BOUGHT less than 1/2 position SCHX in pre market @ around 1095…will get more aggressive buying near 1085 as above
Phil,
It sure IS coming! I’ll be looking for a nice counter – at least.
STRING…get ready to sell more bonds as stocks tank…once stocks reverse back up all those juicy bond profits will evaporate
After,
You’re making the market go to POO.
Supposed to go to MOO first!
Almost down to DOO. Shorts will cover soon… too much ‘GOOdie’ to pass up.
Nice daily gap down on SPY. I may need to change my spotters.
Stringm,
We only got a dusting of your snow… we’re sending it back to TX.
Phil
I don’t have any more bonds, you told me to sell them Tuesday. I have some 5yr I could sell I guess, but that seems a waist of time.
George
Keep your dang snow out of here.
String
NICE bounce off 1086….
phil says:
February 23, 2010 at 1:05 pm
STRING….hope you are taking some profits on those bonds
NOTE.. i didnt tell you to sell ……i realize you only had a few bonds to sell but the idea is to SCALE in buying …and SCALE out selling….
Phil
I wasn’t giving you a hard time. I wanted to sell everything because I wanted to understand the process. I accomplished that. thanks for your input.
String
STRING….glad to help .. its all a question of risk and reward…10yr vs 30….small position vs large etc
Be nice if the SPY gap was filled today.
STRING….look at daily $tnx chart….put 50dsma and 200d sma…..both are rising….we are below the 50d now but look what happened a few weeks ago…rates shot up quickly….this is not a good situation for holding bonds
It is amazing to me how our elected officials can say all the right things, but never do any of them.
Stringm,
That’s called “politics”.
George
When I put $tnx in SD it says symbol not found. However, it does bring up a chart that looks like it might still be $tnx. You have quoted $tnx, did you use SD?
GEORGE STRING…..$TNX …..use caps
looks like a bull flag rather than a gap closer on the SDS. Finding support at the Tuesday high of $35.80 as well.
Gold stocks are up today. That’s a sign of real strength.
Stringm,
It’s $TNX.X
George
Thanks, you learned me something about SD.
String
Stringm,
You learned me more with that programming!
Stringm,
I forgot: 30 year is $TYX.X
K,
May get your triple triplets today.
Thanks George.
looks like SPY/SPX is trying to get up off the floor. Just crossed 15 min 9 MA and 5-min is looking to make a 9/36 cross coming if price stays steady or improves. Just the last wave of an ABC correction to the big downdraft (with more downdraft to come), or the start of the rebound Phil is looking for?
My target is lower Phil…looking for 107x, not 1086 like you are.
SPY has 1 more chance to cycle its 1min MACD (moving down now) to get the 5min over its 36ma.
If not, deeper into POO.
Stopped out for a 40% gain on a SPY PUT I bought just before yesterday’s close.
(MAR $110)
Hank,
NICE! That’s a “good” stop.
Thanks George. It was just a lucky guess.
As Matt points out, front month ATM options are pretty volatile, it was up 60% earlier this morning.
I tried to go long with SSO but I was stopped out for small loss.
GLTA
Nice move on SSO! Sold my SDS and added 2x SSO to catch this rally. Thanks George.
Phil, if this move to 1086 was the C of your ABC. What is your current count? Are you saying that was wave 2 (the ABC) of 1 of 5 of P1 with 1200+ the ultimate target of 5 of P1? How did you count 1045 then–wave 4 of P1? Thanks. Nice call…I got to play along with you.
I don’t like that the daily, 15-min, 5-min stochs are all pegged above 80. Only the 60 minute and weekly aren’t pegged at this point.
SPY about ready to fill the gap. Just what the Dr. ordered.
George, the gap from today DID get closed….how do you like them apples?!?
SPY hasn’t done a 9/36/15 so the close will be interesting.
now where do we go????
Now SPY has crossed on the 15min. Could be a humpty.
I have a 9/36 cross on the 15 min on spx..don’t you George?
I’m like 20 seconds behind you….by the time I type it, you are typing it too…haha
Yes, got that cross on 15min. Will see what 1min does here.
SPY nearing resistance on the 5min.
Gap closed right at the resistance line after it poked through but didn’t hold.
And it blows right through….definitely a bull market going on. NO bear in sight. AFter wave 2 correction/retrace tomorrow, I’ll cover my shorts and get out of the way. Glad I traded the way I did today.
Consider this capitulation….500 points down on the Dow coming very soon.
OH, I see what you were looking at George. My bad. The 5-min final candle from Wed was at $37.48 for a low….it closed that gap but hit a brick wall. gotcha….
I sold 30% of the sso and went home with 70% to help hedge the shorts. Tomorrow’s action will dictate what I do on that front.
Talk to you then….have a great night. Tennis anyone? It is 70 degrees here in PHX….sorry to rub it in.
I’m starting to get this MA stuff George….thanks again.
What a comeback.
GEORGE….just got back and sold my SCHX in after hours..only fitting since i bot it this am in PRE market…..lol…
GEORGE….see when prechter starts yelling crash what happens…this is looking more bullish all the time …we are close to confirming an impulse wave UP not down…..if so we will go WAY ABOVE spx 1600
GEORGE..call me crazy but i can envision SPX 2350 before this is over and done…of course all that is required is a tick above the 2000 high around 1552
On a local radio station (financial talk) here in Phoenix, a host and his trading sone (Tickerville, Quint Tatro) mentioned something VERY interesting today. The show should be digitized on Bill Tatro’s blog tonight for a FEW days only if anyone wants to listen to it.
He said two things that got my immediate attention:
1) This is a “reverse” market in that there is no BUYING going on, just short selling and short covering (buying). If you look at the market from that perspective, it makes more sense. I’ve noticed many old time traders on this blog and others making the same comment: “This market isn’t like anything I’ve traded in the past.” That may be the reason why.
2) He trades not necessarily WITH the technicals, Fibs, etc… but with the thesis in mind of how other TRADERS would trade the technicals (H&S, bull flags, etc…).
That last one got my attention because of something George often says: humpty dumbty. In other words, GS and other market makers actually see technical patterns forming and then intentionally make them fail! Being on the other side, of course. In other words–ripping off the retail investor. Not surprising.
Hope that post helps someone in the blogosphere.
The last point also points to traders squeezing the Prechter crowd…he says crash, they squeeze harder.
Tooth
In other words, when they are schucking, we should jive. Everything is opposite it’s appearance.
String
String,
What I got out of it is that using TA and Fibs is a good start, but will probably lead to failure since the pros are looking at the same info (and with 10 screens, more of it!) and using it AGAINST you when you trade. Hence the breakouts that don’t go anywhere right now (no buying), and shorts that get covered quickly.
Quint pointed out the banks of the past few days as a prime example. The candle was down a few days ago and broke below a key technical point (50 MA?) or a death cross (whatever–a well known trading point that “everyone” jumps on), the next daily candle covered all the previous candle as the shorts covered and the patient traders got squeezed when the candle didn’t confirm the drop, and then the next day, it gaps open lower than both candles’ lows. If the price action was due to actual buying, not short covering, the gap lower would have been bought up quickly.
He cited ane example that a mutual fund or hedge fund accumulating a position wouldn’t allow the price they are accumulating to be violated. e.g., If Cramer were still running Cramer/Burkowitz Hedge Fund, every time Golden Slachs dropped to 154, he’d buy 10,000 shares. Over and over again, until he fulfilled his 100,000 or 500,000 share position he wanted to put on. That would be buying. Instead, in the above stated example, the gap open wasn’t purchased immediately and with some gusto. Instead, we sat around until 1 pm, and then WHAMMO, short covering hit the market and we roared higher today to close the gap. (glad we were on the right side of that one, huh George?) The buyers were short covering, not buying to buy and hold.
IMHO, eventually the weak hands holding shorts will be all washed out and the lower lows, lower highs will take their toll on the “investing public” that buy and hold. If we make new highs (thanks PPT), then no problem…the public doesn’t care how it happens. Comes back to what everyone says: leave your bias at the door and trade what you see!
2thfixr,
I found that often I would write an analysis in the evening, and then it would play out at 3am when Europe opened. Then when WordPress published my post at 9am, it looked like I was predicting something that already happened. So I need to post right after I finish analyzing because global markets simply don’t wait for the US markets to open.
Tatro’s comments on the big players painting the charts is nothing new. If you look at the quote I have on this page, you will see that such tactics were known a hundred years ago. In fact, Alan Farely says that the trading bots are programmed with every known trading system and know exactly where to squeeze retail traders – automatically.
Matt
Manuelstop,
Yes, LaVorgna’s numbers are too optimistic.
Matt
dblwyo,
Years ago, Steve Jobs said that there was no need for people to write things on the web because anybody that had anything important to say already had a job in the media. His attitude was that if you couldn’t get job as a reporter or a pundit or talking head, that you should probably just keep your mouth shut.
That was an astoundingly out-of-touch, arrogant, and foolish opinion. As you pointed out, Big Media often comes to the blog-o-sphere looking for ideas to steal.
Matt