Years ago, Steve Jobs said that there was no need for people to write things on the web because anybody that had anything important to say already had a job in the media. His attitude was that if you couldn’t get job as a reporter or a pundit or talking head, that you should probably just keep your mouth shut.

That was an astoundingly out-of-touch, arrogant, and foolish opinion. As you pointed out, Big Media often comes to the blog-o-sphere looking for ideas to steal.

Matt

Yes, LaVorgna’s numbers are too optimistic.

Matt

I found that often I would write an analysis in the evening, and then it would play out at 3am when Europe opened. Then when WordPress published my post at 9am, it looked like I was predicting something that already happened. So I need to post right after I finish analyzing because global markets simply don’t wait for the US markets to open.

Tatro’s comments on the big players painting the charts is nothing new. If you look at the quote I have on this page, you will see that such tactics were known a hundred years ago. In fact, Alan Farely says that the trading bots are programmed with every known trading system and know exactly where to squeeze retail traders – automatically.

Matt

Quint pointed out the banks of the past few days as a prime example. The candle was down a few days ago and broke below a key technical point (50 MA?) or a death cross (whatever–a well known trading point that “everyone” jumps on), the next daily candle covered all the previous candle as the shorts covered and the patient traders got squeezed when the candle didn’t confirm the drop, and then the next day, it gaps open lower than both candles’ lows. If the price action was due to actual buying, not short covering, the gap lower would have been bought up quickly.

He cited ane example that a mutual fund or hedge fund accumulating a position wouldn’t allow the price they are accumulating to be violated. e.g., If Cramer were still running Cramer/Burkowitz Hedge Fund, every time Golden Slachs dropped to 154, he’d buy 10,000 shares. Over and over again, until he fulfilled his 100,000 or 500,000 share position he wanted to put on. That would be buying. Instead, in the above stated example, the gap open wasn’t purchased immediately and with some gusto. Instead, we sat around until 1 pm, and then WHAMMO, short covering hit the market and we roared higher today to close the gap. (glad we were on the right side of that one, huh George?) The buyers were short covering, not buying to buy and hold.

IMHO, eventually the weak hands holding shorts will be all washed out and the lower lows, lower highs will take their toll on the “investing public” that buy and hold. If we make new highs (thanks PPT), then no problem…the public doesn’t care how it happens. Comes back to what everyone says: leave your bias at the door and trade what you see!

In other words, when they are schucking, we should jive. Everything is opposite it’s appearance.

String

He said two things that got my immediate attention:
1) This is a “reverse” market in that there is no BUYING going on, just short selling and short covering (buying). If you look at the market from that perspective, it makes more sense. I’ve noticed many old time traders on this blog and others making the same comment: “This market isn’t like anything I’ve traded in the past.” That may be the reason why.

2) He trades not necessarily WITH the technicals, Fibs, etc… but with the thesis in mind of how other TRADERS would trade the technicals (H&S, bull flags, etc…).

That last one got my attention because of something George often says: humpty dumbty. In other words, GS and other market makers actually see technical patterns forming and then intentionally make them fail! Being on the other side, of course. In other words–ripping off the retail investor. Not surprising.

Hope that post helps someone in the blogosphere.