Thursday’s Trading

Tiki Alert
On Wednesday, the TIKI closed at 18. That was the highest print in seven months. The tick count for the Russell 2000, TIKRL, closed at 1,000. That’s a new record high for the data that I have, which goes back to April. For comparison, the TIKRL printed at 776 at the rally peak on January 6th. These two indicators are flashing very overbought signals (short term).

Another Kud-blow-off?
Here is me calling Larry Kudlow a fool:

“Euphoria has officially broken out on CNBC with Kudlow screaming about “panic buying” and talking heads raving about how a giant rally is “in the air.” Fools.”

Was I being unfair? Nope. That quote is from this post on January 5th. The market topped the next morning, and then panic selling ensued. The exact opposite of what Kudlow predicted.

Guess what? Kudlow started shrieking about “panic buying” again on CNBC last night. If the Kud-Blow indicator is consistent, then the market will be peaking soon, if it hasn’t done so already.

No More Cars, Please
In case you missed it last night when I posted it in the comments, here are 13 cool pictures of cars piling up around the world.

196 Responses to “Thursday’s Trading”

  1. K says:

    well so long for talking about credit unions. not as bad as getting taken over by the FDIC but still.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/28/AR2009012803242.html

  2. dblwyo says:

    Well the futures are definitely down, though recovering a bit. Beyond all of yesterday’s discussions about Fibs and targets – which was wonderfully useful in forcing my thinking – we’re in a very event driven market. Bad Bank UP ! Stimulus passes House but on partyline split, DOWN ? SB: Barry’s getting a huge amount of ideological intransigence from House Rips on what’s a pretty well crafted bill [Grades: Economic(B/B+), Political(A/A-)] which doesn’t bode well. Maybe yesterday’s discussions become moot ?

  3. K says:

    it was rejected by 100% of reublicans so might have hard time in the house

  4. George says:

    Kud-Blow :)

    Why does that guy and Cramer always SHOUT? They’re the type that believe louder is better understood, or something. Irritating.

  5. George says:

    K, you’re correct about the Reps. Also, they have shown their hand going forward.

  6. George says:

    K;

    We should have gotten SKF last night.

  7. Charlie says:

    i picked up some FAZ going into the close and immediately sold a covered call on it at a higher price as a hedge. I figure it is best to play it safe in this env. earning 25% if i get called out of my shares ain’t too bad either.

  8. narrowminds says:

    Hi George, I did get some faz… should have gotten more :) But as Sherry said pigs get slaughtered, so I will keep with my 1k buys for now…

    George, another question: how do you monitor multiple stocks to see if they are crossing into buy points? I have my charts up, but can only view one stock for multiple timeframes at a time.

  9. narrowminds says:

    Sherry, thanks for the tip…

    So Dave, would you be able to give me some advise on how to pick/what to pick, when to buy?

  10. dblwyo says:

    K & folks: that was the House. The same people who cratered the fall rescue and ran it thru the porkup sausage machine.

    FWIW just put a major post up on the strategic outlook for the Finance Industry. Might be ( :) ) a tad mis-match between my timeframe and trading but then again it might be driving things.

  11. George says:

    narrowminds, I have 5 monitors with “pairs” and individual stocks like BBT, ICE, AAPL others. I can monitor 8-10 stocks without having to resort to the mouse.

  12. narrowminds says:

    Okay so I need to get a few more monitors then :)

  13. K says:

    George I stuck with SKF and SDS overnight
    skf at 124 sds at 73.02

  14. Yerk says:

    Matt, great call going short yesterday!

  15. George says:

    K;

    WTG! I should have known better after 4 up days. That reasonability thing, ya know.

  16. jill says:

    RE:No Shrinkage with Robots

    Watch this guy log a forest:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxM5falj_WI

  17. George says:

    narrowminds,

    you’d be surprised what another monitor does to productivity, trading or anything else. Inexpensive compared to getting more computers and all that. At Newegg (Internet), you can get a Tritton USB external video card for $60 including shipping.

    Works great, too.

  18. Yerk says:

    I have protected my gains with stop-loss orders… Data-feed gone missing :-(

  19. K says:

    2 monitors is the new standard :P 5 is premium

    and george I won’t be able to sell until the last 2 hrs if I need to so I hope skf hits at least 138 close of the gap down would be greatly appreciated :mrgeeen:

  20. narrowminds says:

    Okay I will go shopping… I am an apple user, so will have to see if I can get some good options…

  21. George says:

    narrowminds,

    Tritton has a Mac version of this USB video. Then just get an inexpensive widescreen monitor. Mine are Samsung, HP, Gateway.

  22. George says:

    Oh, and it has to be USB 2.0 version.

  23. narrowminds says:

    Thank you George :)

    You know, I love this blog, everyone is so nice, eager to help out, and clam… I am so glad to have bumped into this site… thanks you all!!!!

  24. phil says:

    MATT….. phil from florida here…how have you been????did you like the cold snap..37 here last week in .hobe sound…ANYWAY…i have been reading BEARISH posts on treasuries…so you know me….i just bought a bunch of TLT this am….looks like a rally to 111 is due at least…i see a completed wave down….this rally wouldbe the b wave…then more downside later but i believe a good rally first……thoughts???? STOCKS….am not shorting but waiting for test/break of nov lows….probably buy it there…..regards……phil

  25. dave says:

    narrowminds,

    “So Dave, would you be able to give me some advise on how to pick/what to pick, when to buy?”

    Unfortunately not, i’m a full-time trader/investment mgr. Besides, it wouldn’t serve you well, at all. The objective should be for you to become mkt(S) knowledgeable. Regretfully, that takes a lot of time & mistakes made. There are no shortcuts.

    Matt might not like to hear this, but i come here because it’s like a social networking blogsite for me. Unfortunately, most of my friends & acquaintences frustrate the hell out of me because they have little ambition, or are just willing to exist a normal “j-o-b” life & i’m very entrepreneurial. I don’t come here for specific advice mkt advice. I have taught traders before. I always tell them, “You will have arrived when you think that i don’t know anything.”

    I also come here because a certain female poster bosses me around & it gives me a chance to pretend that i’m deaf.

    There’s lots of good info here as well as “not so much”. I would use this site the same way i used the first brokerage house that i had my account at. It had 14 rows of theatre seats with 16 seats to a row. By listening to people i learned how to NOT think. For instance, “S” once said to me, “You see that stk ? I wanted to buy it when it was 4 (it was now 8), but no one in here would agree with me.”

    Even though i was still wet behind the ears, i knew that this was my first mkt learning experience. I said to him “S, do you want to make money or do you want to have people agree with you ? Because if you want to have people agree with you, you will be buying when prices are high & avoiding opportunities when prices are low. By definition, prices are low because nobody likes it & prices are high because everybody likes something.”

    narrowminds, you can learn a lot from other people’s mistaken thinking.

    I will try to send you general info from time-to-time. Btw, successful trading IMO is as much a function of character as smarts.

  26. admin says:

    Thanks Yerk. Hope your data comes back soon.

  27. meb/Sherry says:

    narrowminds-
    Have a great trading day…hope it’s
    the first of many more to come.

    Sherry

  28. admin says:

    Jill,

    Cool video. The trees never saw it coming…

    Matt

  29. newbie says:

    Dave, I would say character is much more important than smarts.

  30. admin says:

    phil,

    I don’t have time to pay much attention to bonds, gold, oil, etc. Good luck with your TLT.

    Matt

  31. phil says:

    MATT…..just a quick TLT note…..looking to sell at 110 not 111….ie…4 points profit … bought at 106…….phil

  32. dave says:

    newbie,

    “Dave, I would say character is much more important than smarts.”

    Then you’re masquerading under a pseudonym. :) The mkt will discover one’s character flaws.

    Thanks for understanding, “not-so newbie”.

  33. meb/Sherry says:

    narrowminds-
    Dave gave you great advice…and to
    think I just bought him the most
    expensive bottle of wine France
    has.
    I would just add one more thing…you
    should decide what you’re going to
    trade. Everyone has a different personality…
    I don’t like trading stocks…other people
    love to. Find what you love…and as Dave
    says learn all you can about it.

    Sherry

  34. narrowminds says:

    Thanks Dave… I have a ‘big loss’ to recover, I am coming out of retirement to do this… so any hints/guidance you can pass on will be very helpful…

  35. narrowminds says:

    Sherry, so is it wine what will get me his ear… I have a case of 1992 Opus one sitting, can certainly courier it to him… so how about that Dave? :)

  36. admin says:

    So far, the SPX is making a bearish harami candlestick pattern today:

    http://hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bearish%20Harami.htm

  37. meb/Sherry says:

    narrowminds-
    Dave loves wine…you have his ear now.

    Sherry

  38. dave says:

    basically a non-drinker. Altho, a friend of mine once said to me, “When are you going to start drinking men’s drinks ? All those little umbrellas embarrass the hell out of me.”

    Sherry, thanks, hope that’s it’s not too good for coq au vin ? Everybody come on over.

    narrowminds, the only way to bribe me is by demonstrating a thirst for knowledge which you have already demonstrated.

  39. admin says:

    narrowminds,

    There really are no shortcuts. Study the classic trading books and as Sherry says, develop your own style. There’s more than one way to skin a cat, so find something that fits the way your brain works.

    Matt

  40. narrowminds says:

    Wine is easy… so how about it Dave? :) My passion is red, so certainly can get hold of some amazing bold wines… specifically Napa and Italian is what I go for, french gives me a head ache :(

  41. George says:

    narrowminds;

    I’m a retiree, too. I agree with Sherry about finding what you luv. I would also add, keep it simple. Example: This AM, I got into UYG when price crossed over the 9MA, then exited when stochastic kissed above 80. I then got into SKF when price crossed the 36MA and exited the same way. Straightforward and profitable.

    Now I monitor the other positions I’m in and wait for more setups.

    Or, I could go fishin’ if I liked fishin’. Except, I don’t eat dead fish.

  42. meb/Sherry says:

    Dave-
    My bond paper trading came to an end this
    morning…used it to get warm.

    I’m going to wait and see if the U.S. dollar
    index tests its 2005 high. If it does I’m
    going to short it big time for a 5000%
    gain. Will then order you another bottle
    of wine.

    Sherry

  43. narrowminds says:

    I have been reading a lot lately, read: candles, technicals, neowave, trend alignment… and this weekend bought another 4 books which I will finish when I am in Dubai next week…

    I guess I have all this information my head – trying to synthesize it all, and develop an approach, but obviously was/am making big blunders with block trades, getting nervous and getting out with loss, or getting in when the top was already forming… not getting in when the timing is right again due to fear… like you said I have to develop an instinct for this… I thought this was easy, but realizing it is anything but easy! So hats off to you guys!!!

  44. dave says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1015784092&play=1

    I’ve always thought “trading coaches” were a bunch of hooey. But this guy hits it on the mark about “ego” because extreme highs & lows will eat a trader alive. This coach has good “creds” – SAC & Steve Cohen.

    When i was a local, most of my friends couldn’t tell whether i’d had a good day or bad day. Considering that i’d lost as much as $97k in one day & made $105k another day i didn’t let it affect me.

    If one wants to become a floortrader, i do recommend going to an opera coach to properly use one’s voice.

  45. narrowminds says:

    LOL… no one likes dead fish George :)

    Can you tell me what time frame do you use? I have three windows open, one with 1min, 1 with 5min, 1 with 15min, i am using ema… are you using dma or sma?

  46. George says:

    Trading is deceptively simple. My early problems were guessing and not being patient to wait for setups, along with a host of other hang-ups.

    It’s good to read all you can. In the end, you’ll end up with something simple and effective once you choose your method.

  47. phil says:

    narrowminds…….sorry you have a big loss to recover…..but if you are trying to trade your way back to even it will put a lot of pressure on you ….that is the last thing you need when trading….its like the gambler doubling up his bets to break even…we know how that story ends…..just relax and start small….im sure the loss occured over time….so will the comeback…regards….phil

  48. George says:

    narrowminds;

    I am using SMA. I have 5 time frames for each stock: 1,5,15,30,60min. I trade “progressively” (something I call it…) where I get in on a lower time frame and if a trend develops, like SKF has done, I go up to higher time frames to stay in the trade. I didn’t do that this time because I have been distracted by some stuff here at home, so I do short scalps.

  49. George says:

    SDS double top.

  50. dave says:

    George,

    You had me fooled. You have the spirit of a youngster – great spirit, great vitality.

    narrowminds,

    One of the fav characters in my life (the greatest street smarts that i have ever known), a fellow local, was having trouble getting a Morgan imported back into the USA. He found that the bureaucrat at the POE liked a certain brand of Scotch. Jim sent him a case. The car was soon released.

    Sherry,

    Will soon (days) be posting comments about dollar/commodities/bonds – it’s all related.

    later…got to make clients think that i’m earning my money instead of just hanging out with buds

  51. meb/Sherry says:

    narrowminds-
    What are you going to trade??? My Dad had
    to get approval for what he traded when he
    started. So, he traded OEX index options…
    and I traded them until I started trading
    S&P 500 futures. When I was trading OEX
    index options I would buy puts near the top
    of the Bollinger Band(BB) and calls near the
    bottom of the BB. If I was early, I just rolled
    the option over….
    If you have a loss, you recover it $1 at a time…
    start small and build on success.

    Sherry

  52. meb/Sherry says:

    Dave-
    You always earn your money…raise
    your fee.

    Sherry

  53. dblwyo says:

    Sherry/Dave – if you’re “interested” in seeing all this stuff interact I follow MacroMan’s blog and he displays wit, charm, big picture expertise and deep technical tool use.

    Matt – yesterday’s runup, for all our talk about 940 on the Fib’s, looks to me (now at least) more like your wedge extending. Just look at a 3Mo daily and that’s my quik eyeball take anyway. Setting up for a bigger fall perhaps ?

  54. meb/Sherry says:

    dblwyo-
    Thanks!!! will check.

    Sherry

  55. meb/Sherry says:

    Matt-
    Colin’s latest has a good review of
    the 20′s/30′s.

    Sherry

  56. George says:

    dave;

    Thanks for the compliment. I don’t feel 66 at all. Life is good and I’m the eternal optimist.

    narrowminds, Sherry is right-on, chip away at trading and you’ll be surprised with the outcome. That’s what I have done and I still do the same thing today. What’s the saying? “Get rich slowly”. Or, rebuild your account incrementally.

  57. meb/Sherry says:

    dblwyo-
    Will have to pass on MacroMan to my Dad. When
    NASA was getting ready to go to the moon, Dad
    was in Australia testing the Carnarvon Tracking
    Station. He told me that every night a spacecraft
    from another universe flew over the station
    monitoring every move he made. I told him that
    he and his team were drinking too much Aussie
    beer.
    If you want to look at pictures that will blow
    your mind…goggle…hubble.org

    Another project that Dad worked on…proving to
    him that the S/C was from another universe.

    Sherry

  58. narrowminds says:

    Sherry – I am just trading stocks, was trading faz, but lost a ton on it, so now trading spy, with a little faz.

    I just changed my setting to look at sma, thank you George, I can see how the movement falls between sma 9 and 39… chip at a time is probably the best strategy…

  59. K says:

    narrowminds. to make you feel a little better I will say that when I started trading on my own last march I had 7.5k. end of the year I was down to 4.2k. now you might say that is merely anything. (considering many of you have accounts close or over 100k).

    well how about if I told yyou what I have in the market now is 50% of all my liquid net worth combined? :P. that hurts if I put value to money. when friends ask how much I have lost I tell them I lost a used car.

    I started in 2007 trading using analyst recommendations (back when the market was still rolling high). that was just beginers luck and I later began mounting losses. since then I have paid big “tuition” especially trading apple high and selling low which at one point cost me 800+.

    anyways long story short I am still trying to find my method. the current is fib etracement in 60min and 1hr for major support/resistance. then if I have time for day trades stochastic thanks to george yields me a few bucks a day.

    like Nasim taleb said recently at the munich convention “id rather have a lot of 1 dollar profits than have one 100 dollar profit. but id rather lose 100 dollars at once rather than lose it slowly.” make what you want of it but I got out that compound winnings but cut losses off.

    I realize this is the longest story ever but it took me the whole commute home to write it on my phone. :)

    good luck!!

  60. Charlie says:

    Wow K.. you wrote that on your phone? Great story by the way! :)

  61. K says:

    on the fib retracement I meant to say a day after 60min

  62. dave says:

    I got out of my bond short positions when TLT broke 105 on bad news of the 5 yr auction & TLT was nearing an important Fib #

    I am by no means a bond bull; will be looking for an opportunity to re-enter on the short side.

  63. meb/Sherry says:

    Using 3 bar indicator…SPX reverses trend from up
    to down on a close below 827.69.
    It came close to violating the strong trend
    rule…no more than 4 days in the opposite
    direction.

    Sherry

  64. phil says:

    elliott wavers……the rally hasjust overlapped the jan 26 spx peak….continuing to show this is a n upward correction since jan 20….ie the jan 20 low of 804 will be violated…. then we head to nov low…………will it hold???…..probably not….phil

  65. K says:

    dave like i stated yesterday i am looking to go short bonds via TBT when it hits 41.33 (fib level lol)

  66. dave says:

    Sherry,

    I’m not that much on wine. Love wine country a lot, a lot, a lot. Love Welch’s; not very sophisticated, huh ?.
    Like this a lot http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherry

  67. K says:

    can I still love wine and be underage in the US of A’s? :P

    Merlot is my favorite reasonably priced. i have yet to get into quality but it does the trick and its good for the body. (Europeans these days ;) )

  68. dave says:

    K,

    You may have to get thru bond vigilantes.

    My fantasy.

    I have fantasies of bond vigilantes with their pin-striped hoodies pulled over their heads terrorizing the canyons of Wall St sideswiping banker’s limos weaving in & out on their Vespas shouting “Take that you ‘inflater’”. :)

    Who knows what bond traders call Treasury 2010′s ?

  69. meb/Sherry says:

    Dave-
    THANKS!!! for the link.
    What would you like…a new car…a new
    home on the Pacific…or in Yellowstone…
    …?????????????????????????????????

    Sherry

  70. K says:

    i have no idea :P

    btw the middle line of bollinger band and the 36MA in 60 min is where SPX just bounced. hmm it is decently oversold i should just take my gains

  71. George says:

    K, I bet your thumbs are sore from writing all that. ;)

    narrowminds, K is our soup natzi. He cooks up some fine schnitzel.

  72. dblwyo says:

    Sherry…from NASA/JPL/Hubble:
    http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html
    Astronomy Picture of the Day

  73. dave says:

    somehow to exchange email addys without getting spammed

  74. K says:

    in at 73.02 out at 76.78
    in at 124 out at 131

    i’d rather miss the next $10 gain than not get out with a decent intraday scalp :)

  75. phil says:

    dave…………….what do you think of my idea that wave a or 1 down is basically done in tlt ??????do you agree a n upward correction to 110 to111 is due??????…..how do i get fibo retracment levels?????…..phil

  76. K says:

    dave create it in paint. give it some ajhdjkashfkjhasfjka.jpg name and post it :P

  77. George says:

    Waiting on BBT to show some luv. It’s trying to close that gap around 20.50 where there may be some good pickins.

  78. dave says:

    Phil,

    not waving bonds; think they’re parabolic

    later, may have to a little chasing

  79. K says:

    am already missign some extra as SPX dropping close to 36MA and possibly break hehe but hey i gotta look for my next live fish. everybody is eating the fishes that i just sold. no need in eating leftovers

    also i do have a target of $81.33 on SDS and 138 on SKF.

  80. meb/Sherry says:

    dblwyo-
    A good link.
    Everyone took pictures of the S/C…it
    never showed on flim.

    Sherry

  81. K says:

    george if this were BBT’s turning point we’d be looking for an ICE like move of $10 up to $30 hehe

  82. admin says:

    phil,

    Your trading program should have a Fib tool that you use to draw fibs onto your charts just like you would draw a trend line.

    Matt

  83. George says:

    Those space pictures always humble me.

  84. George says:

    K;

    Let’s hope so. I mean, the TNX is up +1.34!!!!!!! yet, we’re down?

  85. dave says:

    K,

    T-2010′s are called Bo Dereks.

  86. George says:

    I’m worried more about my p-nuts being contaminated than Ms. Market.

  87. K says:

    speaking of space pictures… your own K is into astronomy… explore the cosmos . com ;) my site amateur pics

  88. meb/Sherry says:

    George-
    Me too. Hard to believe your looking
    at something light years away.

    Sherry

  89. George says:

    SDS and SKF want to fill their gaps, too. Every time I think it is going to reverse, they pop up again. Fine with me, they can go to the Xenoa Nebula as far as I’m concerned. Makes me happy.

    SDS has filled its gap, or almost and SKF still working on it. Time to ditch on strength.

  90. dblwyo says:

    K – you dload the MSFT WWW Telescope ? Weight cool but “expensive” in terms of resources on your PC. Just amazing.

    And given what I guess might be your avocation2/hobbies look up the game Orion. :) !

  91. meb/Sherry says:

    Insurance companies could be the next
    black hole…but now it looks like the powers
    to be will loosen capital requirements.
    If you’re in trouble…wait…they will change
    the rules to get you out.

    Sherry

  92. meb/Sherry says:

    K-
    SUPER!!!

    Sherry

  93. K says:

    i did for a time dave. its cool looking but i’d rather use my $500 telescope to look outside myself. wont see all the colors and details but there is something about that far away light hitting your eye that is breathtaking. :)

    and i did not post the link to be click able because i am a soup natzi and i want people to work hard if they want something :D for those of you that dont know what i said its explore the cosmos .com the website with K’s astronomy pictures that hasn’t been updated since i got into stocks haha

  94. dave says:

    Sherry,

    Ever been here ? Radnor http://www.stdavidschurch.org/

    Revolutionary war hero Mad Anthony Wayne & his wife are buried there. The tombstones are inscribed in Old English & there were mushrooms grwoing in the cemetary.

  95. K says:

    i should mention that the telescope i used to take these and the method I used.. if you ask any amateur astronomer.. is the hardest thing ever. I had to manually track the objects every 5 seconds because they went out of sight for the camera to capture that 1-5 sec exposure lol.

    now that you have my full name give google a try ;)

  96. Yerk says:

    Sherry, I just learnt the hole before that is bigger than they thought, so maybe we don’t get there. The powers call the state fluid … fluids follow gravity around rules. We have well-dressed gods fighting the system. If they were leaders they would fathom the black holes to find the bottom.

  97. dave says:

    K opernicus ?

  98. Toby says:

    OK, I’m gonna make a comment on my chart today just because I want to contribute. I’ve been reading for a while, and haven’t felt like I had anything worthwhile to add to the discussion.

    I just noticed on my 1-minute chart of SPY that it looks like it’s been in a falling wedge all day long, but it just broke through the top line of that wedge, then came down to the top line again and has bounced off of it. The one thing that makes me wonder about the wedge is the volume. I’m not sure if volume confirms the wedge or not.

    -toby

  99. meb/Sherry says:

    Dave-
    Was in Wayne…never in the chruch…
    may have missed something…will
    put it on my to do list.

    Sherry

  100. meb/Sherry says:

    Yerk-
    Do you think the rule changes will work???

    Sherry