Here are some good calls from yesterday. I’m sure that there were more, but these are the ones that stuck in my head:
Here’s JungleGirl predicting that the market would make a higher low on Wednesday and then turn back up – which is exactly what the SPX did.
Here’s JungleGirl calling for the market to drop and then bounce Wednesday afternoon.
Here’s Jim giving us the heads-up on FTK, which ramped into the close. That Fly really knows how to pick ‘em, as I mentioned back here. Too bad he doesn’t make calls on the futures.
There’s a 30-year bond auction today at 1pm. I’m going to look for the market to act the same way as Wednesday: curl up into the fetal position with a tight range prior, and then spring out of that range after the results are announced. I don’t care which way it breaks; I’ll just be happy to be along for a portion of the ride.
George
Here is the code for a 9/36 cross up on the 15 entry, and an exit at 15:55 or when the 9/36 crosses down. I ran it back to Jan 1. 23 W and 19 L for a 3.43 % profit. You can cut and paste the code you are using and I will take a look at it.
When the 9MA crosses up the chart is usually screaming, and there is going to be a pull back test of some average. The 3 is going to backtest the 9 or the Mid BB. Does the same thing on the way down. Look at yesterdays SSO chart. The 9 crosses down on the 11:45 bar. The 3 comes back to test the 9 and fails, right about the time JG made her call.
The actual cross up or down of the 9/36 might be a spot to sneak a counter move trade in for a scalp. Send me what you are using and how you set it up, and we can discuss.
String
ENTRY
MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,15,1] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,1] AND
MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,2] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,15,2]
EXIT
MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,15,1] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,1] AND
MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,2] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,15,2] OR
Bar[Hour,15] = 15 AND Bar[Minute,15] = 55
Stringm,
Great. I’ll put the code in and give it a shot. I’m learning how to code this stuff with the things you are sending me.
Thanks
Goodbye yellow brick road.
Getting close to some significant tops/bottoms here.
BBT not playing today, neither is ICE.
George,
Will make tax post on 20th instead of 13th.
Hope that fits your schedule.
Paula
The market is back testing the top of its range as I suggest it would back here.
paula,
That’s great. Anything that will help is appreciated.
Thanks
The TICK 9ma just made a lower high, so I’m guessing the market won’t be breaking out here. If it intends on doing so today, I’m thinking that it wouldn’t be until after the bond auction at 1pm.
Matt,
Was that range on the daily you are looking at or intraday chart? I have a SPY 15min chart with this being a 3rd top from 4 days ago and it is making higher lows on three bottoms in the last 5 days.
i think the upside is limited until after the results of the 30 y auction matt pointed out
George,
I’m looking at a 1-minute TICK chart like the one I posted last night. But now that you mention it, the TICK 9ma just made a higher low to go along with its lower high. So, it is tightening into a narrow range.
Matt
Congress issues a subpoena to the FED.
Wants all documents related to Bank of
America and Merril Lynch.
Matt,
Okay, got it. I’m going to see if StockCharts has the Tick.
TICK looks to be in a bullish wedge pattern
George,
google…quote.com real time tick…click on super
long quote.com link. You set-up the real-time
chart. We use the 3 moving averages. We focus
on the 9 minute moving average vs. the 18 minute
moving average.
Paula
paula,
Super! Thanks. It’s getting to the point that stock trading is almost free.
another example of the TICK warning us before a short term move higher. i was short spy at 95.24 and closed position upon seeing higher low on TICK at 10:09 after spy tried to make another punch lower.
SPY is consolidating yesterday’s rally into the close with light volume today. So, that’s a bull flag. If this flag can complete with a 100% extension, the SPX could hit the 960s soon.
look at the cup and handle on iwm and qqqq 2 min chart
George,
In studies to be applied suggest you also use
the listed MACD. We tried both the exp. and
simple moving averages…did not seem to
make a big difference.
Paula
That 960 projection that I just mentioned matches up with the first Fibonacci resistance level in the Box of Miracles that I posted back here. This sort of matching is the way you can tell that you are doing your fibs and patterns right. Of course, this doesn’t guarantee that the SPX will hit 960. What it does do is tell you that the market is seriously considering a move to 960.
Paula,
Yes, I like to use a MACD on the TICK also. I’ve noticed that when the MACD histogram changes direction on a 1-minute TICK chart, the market almost always will also. It’s an excellent way to time scalping entries and exits.
Matt
SRS is up 3% today. That’s unusual for a rally day. Maybe higher rates are bad news for real estate companies.
George,
I misspoke. Mom told me that quote.com
changed studies to be applied and we
use exp. moving averages….also keep
a close eye on the MACD histogram.
Paula
Tony,
Yes, nice cup-and-handle patterns.
Matt
The SPX is “crawling along” 950, which is a pretty good sign that it will punch through eventually. Whenever you see prices persistently crawling along a level or trendline, odds are good that prices will succeed in breaking through it.
CNBC is reporting that the Fed just released a bunch of weak data, including something about consumer credit. The SPX dropped a couple of points.
George,
Since you are into day trading, follow
Matt’s advice on how to use the tick…
….keep in mind that the tick gives you
a real time picture of the number of
stocks moving up or down on the NYSE.
Paula
In addition to SRS being up, SMH is down, and the Q’s are struggling to stay green. So, there are some things for the bulls to worry about today.
Any piece of bad news that causes a drop
brings in the dip buyers. I see that GS made
several pump-up trading account press releases.
Sources say that the current Treasury Head has
a job with GS after he leaves the Govt.
paula,
Thanks for all the info. Is the MACD you’re referring to a part of the TICK chart or the separate one I use on its own?
Matt
Got TOS downloaded and running. Found TICK and Ease of Movement, even Elder Ray and Force index. This will take me a while I can tell. I could not even get more than one chart at a time pulled up. LOL. This will have to start after the market closes. While I was watching TICK the lowest reading I saw was -53 and the highest was 432.
String
George,
At the bottom of the chart you have a list
of the studies you want applied. The MACD
and exp. moving averages plus others are
on the list. Click on the ones you want applied
…click on green arrow…move them one by
one to the applied box…click on draw chart.
Suggest 1 minute chart updates.
If I screwed-up, let me know.
Paula
Spy 15min bumping up against that top.
Strimg,
I almost screwed up yesterday. I made a small
profit for Julie, but it was not a go short Julie
day due to the successful retest of the prior
SPX low. If that retest had failed with it being
an outside day and Julie was here, she would
have gone 400% short. She should be happy.
I made back plus the money she lost to me.
Hope you’re having a good day.
Paula
paula,
Nice. Thanks! Now I have TICKs.
X pays out again today, had two runs and up 30k
George,
Remember the SPY call options that I mentioned yesterday back here? Well, they are up 95% today. Not bad, huh?
Note: the symbol is SWGFT. I just took my profits. This option could double from here if the SPX breaks out, but I’m not greedy.
Matt
narrowminds,
Congrats!!!!!
Paula
George, the place to exit (what I think works best) is for the cross over delta between 36 & 9 reaches a climax, after which anytime is a good time to exit.
Matt,
Congrats!!!!
Paula
String,
That’s what I hate about TOS – its weird, non-standard user interface. It’s a pain to learn. Color me old fashioned, but I like my software to have menus up at the top.
Matt
Thanks paula, today was a triple hitter for me. I got this ew software from elwave, and it does an amazing job at forecasting the points of entry, but I use it with George’s method, and the exit point based on diff of the two MA, or the elwave whichever comes first.
Rick Santelli on CNBC gives the 30-year bond auction a grade of “A”.
Thanks Paula. The darn things are up 123% now.
The bond auction was very good…
so for X the forecast is now a pull back to wave 4, as 3 is almost complete…
narrowminds,
Keep duplicating.
Paula
Matt,
Never cry about not being a pig.
Paula
Matt,
That’s incredible with those options. My broker will allow me to buy puts, calls and coverd-calls. Is that sufficient?
Slowly slowly… with everyones help here, I am getting better at risk management, and getting the entry points right… I have a good formula defined for stops, if I can only get it automated rather than have to manually work it
George,
Yes, that’s all you need. Once you are set up, all that you need to do is buy a few SPY call options when you buy SSO. And when you buy SDS, buy a few SPY puts. There are lots of SPY options to choose from, but it almost doesn’t matter which one you pick since they will all move along with SPY. Let me know when you can see an “options chain” screen from your broker and we can talk about it some more. The “options chain” is a list of all the available options for SPY.
Matt
Does anyone see the humor in our elected officials grilling Lewis and saying this is about honesty and integrity. Makes me laugh, but I am twisted.
String
The SPX is back-testing 950 now…
String,
Being sanctimonious is a job requirement for our Congressmen.
Matt
The SMH has turned green. The only two red sectors now are retailers and homebuilders – XRT and XHB.
Matt, will let you know when my broker “authorizes” me to give them more money.
I calculated 960 as a target above by using fibs and a chart pattern. TradeStation also has 960 as the R2 floor-trader resistance level for the SPX today. So, 960 comes up three different ways and should be pretty strong resistance.
String,
You are not twistef. The most powerful trade
info you will get is the retest info of prior
SPX lows/highs. The retest of the prior SPX
low yesterday was a success…go long. The
retest of the prior SPX high today was a
success…stay long. When the SPX reaches
its high, the momentum indicator says short.
Hard to tell when the SPX will hit its next high
….but we are looking at next Monday or Tuesday.
Paula
String,
I just fired myself. Can’t spell my
own name.
Paula
The best analysis on when the high will be hit was from this currency trader yesterday, and he had hard examples to share from when the currency market signaled the stock bottoming a week in advance, and it will also give the signal when it thinks the market has topped. So according to him the eu/yp needs to be watched as soon as it shows the sign of reversal, you know the market has gone ahead of it self, and according to him the s&p is taking its guidance from this pair currently… rationale: aussie and yen dictate the commodity global demand
Paula
Yea I noticed that, but you can’t top that stade I threw in yesterday!!! LOL
String
narrowminds,
Thanks for the info.
Paula
The game plan that I wrote up at the top worked out pretty well: wait for the market to break out of its range on the bond-auction announcement and then go with the flow. I don’t know if the market will hold its breakout, so I am relaxing in cash right now.
Note: nobody should attempt to scalp options until George has awarded them a black-belt in scalping stocks/ETFs.
String,
Every trade you make gets better and
better.
Paula
Paula
Thanks I am still a scared rookie, but hanging out here has helped.
String
I just googled “staid”. That is French for “stadium”, where Stringm is going to store all of his cash. Subliminal stuff going on here.
If you subscribe to Cramer’s RealyMoney website, and also trade the futures, there is a guy named Bob Byrne on the site who posts levels for the futures (and SPY) every morning in the “Columnist Conversation” section. For example, today he had has top level at 956.25, and so far, the high for the day for the ES is 956.50. I put Byrne’s levels on my ES chart every morning.
Scalps-Я-Us
String,
Don’t be scared. You only need to trade a
few patterns to fill the stadium George
talked about…and you’re on your way.
Paula
I’m not impressed by SPY’s volume so far, and am keeping my mind open to a false breakout.
So here aus/yen chart, not a real time one, but you can see its rise, and once you see the peak, it will be the signal for s&p’s peak.
http://www.x-rates.com/d/JPY/AUD/graph120.html
Treasury using FED as a proxy to make
bond auction results look better than
they are. When we get the real numbers, traders
may change their minds about the results.
Yes, Paula but you will also notice that the bond prices were driven down the last 2 days to make them attractive, and make sure they go without a hitch… don’t want to rock the markets right now, as all we need is some more time to fix the mess we are in… right
narrowminds,
Thanks for the link. I’ve added it
to favorites,
Paula
SPY might be making a head-and-shoulders pattern on its 1-minute chart since 1pm. Film at 11.
narrowminds,
More time…right on,
Paula
Matt and Yerk. Yerk’s target was 1.43. Hit it once. Going second.
i’m not doing anything until 3 EST. i think there will be a lot of headfakes in between and if we’re gonna trade higher, i think we’ll have to successfully test the vwap.
The FTSE and DAX closed near their highs after a couple of last-hour whipsaws.
EUR/USD. Or it might be a HS pattern developing.
WHO is out scaring the world about some swine flu again.
wow matt, that h&s set up was nice
Larry,
Treasury…anything to get folks to buy
the dollar. Jim Rogers says that the
dollar will remain as the reserve currency…
….do you agree?
Paula
Do-or-die time for SPY. MACD is threatening to cross under zero on the 15-minute chart, and a scary looking bearish engulfing candle is trying to get itself born.
Matt, agree.
It is either a trap or a backtest.
Thanks Tony.
Buy them dips, dudes and dudettes, Appears to be the game still.
Inverse looking better all the time.
Paula, yes I agree medium term.
FED is saving the banks. When that job is done they will save the USD.
But then Obama won’t get re-elected.
Obama vs Bernanke. Dogfight. I think Obama wins that one.
Help me with the rest of the script after trading session.
Good night.
SPY hit that 15min overhead trendline and backed off. Could go back to the bottom line at $93.30.
I agree also, looks like there is a lot of supply at these levels
George,
If the SPX were to close at your 933 target, you
would have a powerful double key reversal.
Paula
paula,
Is that the same as a MOAR?
With the market being this positive it is going to be hard to shake buyers and short covering.
George,
A key reversal is where the SPX makes a
new high and closes below yesterday’s
close. A double key reversal is two key
reversals separated by a trading day.
In a normal market a key reversal is a
shorting signal…double key carries more
weight. But as Yerk and his friend pointed
out indicators that worked before don’t
work now…reason for stops.
Paula
could be a bloody close judging from my indicators
George,
The MACD hist. never lies. It says that
we should short this top…when we
get there.
Paula
George,
The swing trade formula came from an old
grain trader. Market changes direction every
21/2 to 3 days unles you get a breakout…
5 to 6 days.
Paula
950 is getting a rather thorough test here…
paula,
I’m impressed with your market and technical knowledge.
933, here we come (if the chain don’t break).
Really though, SPX is acting like it wants to backtest that broken upper trendline on the 15min. Must be magnets up there.