Futures are floppy as I write, so perhaps we will see a test of the support at Monday morning’s gap. The IYT was the first to test its gap, and now the SMH has joined it. The VIX also found support at its January 20th gap on Wednesday morning. So, I’d say that the odds are with the bears today, though I’m keeping an eye out for a run up to 1123, which was Tuesday’s high. Maybe the SPX will print the right shoulder of a mini head-and-shoulders there, and then roll over in fear of Friday’s jobs report.
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yawn again —
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 80.86 -0.01 -0.01
Natural Gas 4.732 -0.025 -0.52
Corn 386.75 +5.25 +1.36
Soybeans 963.5 0.0 0.00
30yr Bond 117.37500 +0.09375 +0.08
10yr Note 117.421875 +0.015625 +0.01
NY Gold 1139.3 -4.0 -0.35
NY Silver 17.335 +0.006 +0.03
Emini S&P 1118.00 -0.50 -0.04
Emini Nasdaq 1850.25 -1.75 -0.09
Emini Dow 10389 +2 +0.02
Thanks After. This will probably change before the market opens… still looking for MOO.
SPY backtesting its broken trendline again, the new one it made yesterday.
i saw 1122 and change on the s&p futes on ino just now…anyone at the edge of the driveway at the house of bears thinking about ringing the doorbell ?
I’m a bear right now. I just don’t know how long it will last before I change into a bull.
When the time comes… and that may be soon… I’ll back up the truck on SRS and company.
Ring, ring, ring…
Where’s K when you need him to see these red streaks?
However, financials aren’t giving up much ground so this could be short lived.
SPY right at support trendline. Watching for a bounce.
SPY broke down, then recovered (that 5min candle hasn’t finished yet) now financials giving up a bit but hanging rather tough.
BBT gapped up .50c this AM. Now it looks like it is going down for a gap fill.
After,
I just saw your post about 911 charges. There has been a charge here for years on the monthly statement for .90c. I’m not sure how that service is paid, but if it is local taxes, which I suspect, then that’s double-dipping.
If an EMS unit is used at the scene of an accident (and they always are), it cost $350. If a helicopter transport is used to a hospital, it cost $3,000.
Next, they’ll be charging for police calls, arrests, bullets, taser use and handcuff rental.
The fat-cats keep getting fatter.
The takeaway of this story is… don’t get injured, just die.
SPY didn’t die… it’s MOOving.
Shorts are covering about 50% of the down moves. Scalpers are boosting that higher.
Luv them short sellers.
SPY at 5min 36MA resistance. It is respecting support and resistance well today. So this could turn out to be support.
George, I noticed this, too. Too strong a bid under the market and down moves don|t play out as expected. Bias is up.
Seems to be near a breaking point. Undulations on SPY are toward the downside. More like a topping action. That could change.
I look at things in the short view. Even so, the SPY 60min MACD is negative so it could be cycling down.
Stochastic can and will cycle within the MACD. So on an hourly chart (and 15min), the stochastic cycles are significant. Right now, stochastic is turning up with a slight cross while the MACD has crossed and is moving down.
It may seem confusing, but short-term price is moving up within the MACD while overall, in a longer view, price has, and is, moving down unless the MACD turns around and becomes positive.
Either can be used. The MACD gives fewer false signals, mainly because it is slower.
Here’s the SPY 5min. Notice it has respected support 3 times while the upper trendline has been lower. Looks descending.
http://i49.tinypic.com/16jo9c1.jpg
SPY surely trying to break out to the upside.
That was a false breakout, SPY still continuing its move to the downside.
Hoping to get to MOO in the near future but the Full Moon is pulling in the wrong direction.
Some type of consolidation going on before a new wave up? If so, the 30min could be key because its MACD trendlines are close to the zero line where it could bounce. The 15min trendlines are below the zero line telling it is trending down currently.
Shorts are covering every inch of the way, so there is no ‘short’age of counter moves. Maybe a short squeeze will get the ball rolling to the upside.
If SPY finishes today with a doji, that will be 3 days in a row.
SPY has a chance to bounce off its 5min 36MA again. It has peeked over its 15min 36MA, not quite a cross yet.
Tale of the tape.
K watched the professor while his friend sent him a message of how we made 230% on one trade today. 1.5 grand ones while K made 30 bucks
SKF has triple bottoms on the 15min.
There goes the SPY triple doji neighborhood if it maintains this price.
Obvious – we are now getting rallies on Thursday in anticipation of the next Monday, which is always an up day….
Interesting, the lower UNG gets, the higher the Dow goes, over the last year, UNG is down about 50%, the Dow is up about 50%…
Don’t look now, but the Dow and S&P indices are showing bearish pennants. With low volume and all. Friday is the only meaningful day as far as data is concerned for the next few days. So corporate news/events are going to take the stage.
Maybe we’ll be in a tighter and tighter range next week until the market finally decides or maybe it just breaks lower tomorrow. What do you think Matt?
Rodrigo,
SPY looks more like a bullish pennant than a bearish one. Don’t you think?
Matt
it’s pretty subjective. But I see a flagstaff from the 18th to around the 26th/27th of January. Then the move higher since the beginning of February until now has been forming the pennant with lower volume.
Also, looking at the hourly charts the MACD has been showing a pretty substantial bearish divergence.
I dunno, but with the complacency in the market (VIX<19) and Investor Sentiment surveys already back at bullish levels, not to mention pandit thanking the taxpayers for the bailout money, it all seem so surreal. …. meanwhile housing is clearly getting worse now and Europe, while it's died down will be making noise again in about 1 month. …. it really has the feeling of a major top to me.
Rodrigo,
I was looking at the last six days. Three days up for the flag pole, and then three days of low-volume consolidation for the pennant.
Matt
The jobs bill should help once it gets circulated. Maybe not as good as the TARP since it isn’t going to financial institutions and isn’t as much $.
ah ok. I see it.
[...] Thursday night in the comments, I said that SPY looked like it was in a bull-flag pattern. Here is what I was talking about (click chart [...]