Looks like today is Chrysler BK Day.
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Anyway, the NC State tax refunds are being delayed 4 months at last count. This is because they don’t have the funds to repay and must wait on revenues to come in to give returns.
Meanwhile, Gov. Bev Pardue is cutting all NC employee salaries one-half percent of yearly salaries. The kicker is that this will be paid in full in one month. This is a good strategy because it avoids laying off more people.
George:
Well, NC Congress had a chance to make some tough choices but it appears they chose to back this up on the workers’ refunds – luckily seen as candy by the real hell raisers instead of what’s due them.
Easley was under the gun with a budget crisis the moment he took office and never got ahead of it. Perdue can’t do anything but wait on the Feds. So, close to S. Carolina but yet so far – at least in rhetoric.
Wonder if that 1% cut will effect a lessening of retirement pay that’s based on salary? Seems tiny but could make a difference.
Who is paying for CNBC’s time this morning? I sorta feel like I am paying double!
MKB, good point about the retirement. NC currently pays out over 1 million per month in retirement.
Hi All…
seems like this must be the biggest EOM tape painting going on or there isn’t a recession and who cares if Chrysler is going bankrupt.
Shorting here while the S&P is slightly above the upper trend channel seems like the right thing to do, but I don’t know.. I’m getting nervous going short and I’m sure as hell not going long.
This gap up was a continuation of the MACD move yesterday. Meaning, we cycle down now on the underlying. For a bit, anyway.
Charlie, at this point, it seems more logical to short than going long.
That being said, every pattern I’ve seen perusing last night has been busted except for the one Matt put up yesterday.
George do you also look at the /es pattern when the market opens?
eurusd tanked down to 1.32 – if it bottoms & reverses eom painting will be easier.
Yerk, yes, the SPY and SPX version.
Unless I’m mistaken, we’re watching a bear capitulation, which is why the models are out of whack right now.
But that don’t mean this ship can’t turn on a dime!
Plus, the bond market and the dollar fall are helping.
I keep buying SSO, BBT, et al on the 1min when price crosses the 9MA, then flip to the inverse when the cycle changes. With these moves, I’m only after some change, like .20c with several thousand shares.
I have no fear buying the inverse because of its depression.
This will work until it doesn’t.
Great trading there George. In the end, if you can make a few hundred bucks flipping shares for 20 to 30 cents each time, that is a great trade vs. always waiting for that big move.
I’m working on the big moves too, just haven’t come up with something that suits me.
Let’s get some inverse.
FAZ going to 0!!!
Hey Dressguard,
yesterday you mentioned something about a new buy target for SRS. Is that in the teens now?
The 200 is coming down, so a top around the 920-940 area for the current rally makes sense as the 200 should be down there in a couple of weeks and should provide resistance.
On the 2 year the SPY looks as if a massive reverse head and shoulders is forming. High volume on the first shoulder in Nov around 740, head in march around 670, lower volume. Neck is unclear but may be around the 920-940 area. Would imply 1240 as the target of the eventual pattern. This is far from complete as we need the neck, the right shoulder and then a break above the neck. In current terms we would need to go up to 920-940, back down to 720 and then break through 940 to complete the pattern.
However this is inconsistent with what we know of the economy. It is difficult to swallow that we reverse waterfall to 1240 in the face of historic structural imbalances.
I am more inclined to think that we are close to the top of this rally in terms of points but may have some time left as people wait for the recovery. Reality will set in over the next 2-4 months that the economy will not recover. And then we see a waterfall down.
gigi,
Nice analysis.
The MACD positive divergence on SDS is still in effect. A move down to the $60 area would negate the pattern.
George,
are you still holding SKF long term or did you let that bird fly?
Charlie, I’ve been playing around with StrategyDesk drawing. Nice. Precise and has Fib retracements.
The SDS 60min is in a downward channel if I’m drawing it correctly. Price is working its way to the bottom of that channel.
Charlie, I still have the core position. I’m countering it with SSO, BBT and SKF counter-moves. No harm done yet. I’m ahead of the game actually.
In fact, I like doing this because it increases risk/reward when trading the pairs. I keep chunking it up and when SKF reverses, I’ll really be ahead of the game.
When it gets to the bottom of that channel, I’m going to get more.
I will begin posting buy and sell signals when my indicator tells me. I am going to create a new page on my website for them.
you can click on my K to check the website. there is a post now asking for recommendations on which symbols you would like me to track.
so please let me know on here. the system is very accurate and im very satisfied with it. I won’t want to reveal it but won’t mind issuing signals.
I am testing it now on the first real position on MOV. got signal at 7.67 and its now over 9.40
buying skf at 155 lead to me putting a ton of work into a system that would eliminate my bearish bias.
Just looked at SBUX and Coach. The stocks have doubled from the bottom. SBUX now sports a PE north of 20 on projected earnings and coach around 15. In my opinion they are pricing in a recovery and strong growth.
Green shoots have been bought. Either they are confirmed by the economy or they are a mirage. I don’t see how they can be confirmed. At best what we are seeing is the last hurrah of the credit bubble, created by Ben via lowering mortgage rates to 5% and people who are addicted to spending every last dime they have.
Sometime this year the realization will set in that there is no recovery. What will be the trigger for this realization? Perhaps CRE or trouble in Europe, rising interest rates, dollar declines?
Crazy action during the last 20mins before the FTSE cash mkt closed.
Massive volume on the 4pm 30min bar of the FTSE future ….. something is afoot !!
I think many of us have a bias on the bearish side due to our access to information as well as our inclination to believe in reality vs. the dog and pony they put up on CNBC. The unfortunate part of the equation is that the market is run by these clowns and hence they will maintain the facade for as long as possible. Any stock trading strategy needs to take that into account and take out any bias thoughts. The market behaves as it will behave and not what we believe reality is.
I’ll look forward to seeing your analysis K.
K, congrats on finding your “groove”. I’ll check it out.
Darren:
The pound is stronger – don’t see anything significant.
Charlie—-
Re: your 11;34 AM post.
Excellent comments.
@Charlie: Action in SRS is kind of weird. Hard to tell what that biyatch is doing next.
Looks like the bear market is over
I shorted the open.
I got a buy signal at 330pm yesterday on DRYS (one of the few stocks I have on alert list so far)
have FAZ too but there is no buy signal this entire time.
just let me know if you need/want me to put alerts for specific stocks of your choice. I might create the page later on today since I am taking the week off from trading anything and just focusing on school an the system.
like I have stated before. if there was no comission, every S&P stock would yield a positive gain from whatever time TD has data from (they are so limiting though
)
I know what you mean. I just bought some SRS anyways though. Looks to be making a move to go higher. A little bit of reality is sinking into this market right now.. especially with the CHAPTER 11 in huge bold font on the marketwatch site for Chrysler.
K,
I’ll get a handful of shares of SKF and hold them until $155 in your honor.
With your new method, I hope you’ll be able to have an ATM machine.
Hank, good call!
Today’s SSO gap almost filled… we’ll see.
I hope to have an ATM machine of my own one day.. Still working on that one. Seems like I have been more of a ATM for someone else as of late….
Anyways.. huge move on SRS. Up over $1.20 since I bought it. Crazy move.
charlie just wait until SRS hits a buy signal on my system. ill join you and we can have atm’s to buy whatever e wish
. since SRS started my system backested at 4hrs which is what i prefer to use now thanks to forex.. has made 210%+ 
sure there are fakeouts but largest loss is miniscule sompared to average gain.
Wow, Charlie, you smokin’! Luv it…
Gap closed on SKF, next resistance $57.50 if it continues up.
ok guys just got home. remember how I used to play with bollinger bands before? and how i called the skf drop?
well 3 hours ago the SPX did the same thing at around 890. what makes this more important drop is that candle that hit the top bollinger band was a perfect doji (1hr timeframe)
i’m looking at 850′s if not more if people wisen up today. let’s goooooooooooo
SSO will have a 5min double bottom coming up shortly ~23.50-23.40.
Hey K,
tell me when you get that buy signal on SRS and I’ll add more
it might not be until it reaches upper 20′s and maybe 30. that’s just predicting but i’ll let you know
not out of the woods yet for SRS. IYR found support on an ascending support line which it is sitting on right now. Needs to break down through this for the SRS move to be valid.
SPY, XLF, and IWM have filled their gaps from this morning, but the Q’s have not. So, the Q’s are holding things up here. As long as the QQQQ gap stays open, I wouldn’t expect a substantial sell-off. So that’s something to keep an eye on.
Those trendlines in StrategyDesk are awesome. If you put them on a certain time frame, say 60min, they will stay there until you remove them. Still, you can change the time frame on that screen and it doesn’t lose the time frame with the trendlines.
Nice.
SPY’s bounce over the last half-hour has been on light volume and might be a bear flag.
K, will that SRS signal be on your website or are you going to post it here?
Looks like a bear flag to me too Matt..
Re: What K said earlier.
The Q’s have also fired a shooting star candle through the top Bollinger Band on their daily chart.
George, I am aiming to do both. still haven’t crafted the page on my site.
am now listening to the Chrysler conference. I called in. these guys are crazy lol. how much a$$ kissing he is doing from treasury and obama is hilarious. sorry.
back to listening I go.
wow just glanced at MOV again! $2/share profit since buy signal last week
have less than 100 shares but it’s the “good signal” that matters
George:
Look at UNG again. Prognosis for it to have a “Benny Hinn” moment?
MKB, it’s in my prayers, too.
ok so add UNG to my alert list for buy/sell signals LOL
K, add URE, URG and UYG if you can.
Tks
george, will do
got a recent signal on URG at 0.655!! april 22nd that beast almost doubled.
since the etf was in biz in june 2008 132% return according to backtest with assumption of $10 commission
Sorry Matt, this talk will die down as soon as I set up the alerts page.
K,
Sounds fantastic. That URG is tough to follow.
SDS 15min has looked good since around 11:30 and still hanging in there. It’s over its 36MA, but currently in the middle of the channel, so it may not hold.
K,
I’m going to make you proud with my S(K)F Sympathy Shares.
I’ll dosey-doe those shares on each leg up and quadruple the profits.
My wife went into work today and her boss made her come home. Said she sounds contageous. Don’t come back until you’re better. I thought it was too early for her anyway, but she has this work ethic thing.
Double top on the inverse. Could bust through, still enough time.
I figure when SDS reaches the top of that channel it will be smacked down.
K,
If your system makes good picks, talk about it as much as you want.
Matt
here is where the picks will pop up
I just made a rough draft and will add some recent picks from those. any other suggestions as to info and ticker symbols please let me know.
CLICK -here is the link
I have now implemented a direct link to that page by clicking K
Excellent
Looks like they are fighting for a positive close to end the month, but then…dum da dum dum…expect some fall out tomorrow and next week…
The SPX may have a two-day H&S pattern on its 5-minute chart with a neckline at 868.
The market has worked off its short-term overbought condition by going sideways. During the rally, this has always been a bullish signal.
For example, breadth was very high yesterday and has now wound down to neutral, yet the market is flat.
OK page updated for now with the latest signal for each symbol on the list. hope you like
so remember click on K to check it out. 
K, nice list!
Thanks
Minor dump into the close, 875 still not breeched, too much bad news today, just like yesterday, last week, last month, last year…that spike down is coming.
Record low mortgage rates, new homebuyer credit, foreclosure pricing…you wonder what it will take to reinflate the real estate bubble…
K,
So are the old buy signals still buys? For example, you have a buy signal for the SPX from the 23rd. Does that mean it is still a buy?
Matt
yes Matt,
but as with all else if it’s 7 days later a lot has changed.
But according to the strategy still a Buy for SPX until it changes.
I am still thinking if I should just give the latest signal like I’m doing now or both the last 2 signals (one a buy and one a sell)
i think the route I have taken it’s easier for people to distinguish what is a buy and what is not.
From now on if a signal changes I should just BOLD it?
as i said this is a draft which might stay but open to suggestions
Hmm, funny looking candle on the SPX daily.
heh MOV took a dump today like the rest of the market and I am seeing exit candlesticks everywhere but will resist and me all mechanical (follow the system)
one last update. while i was busy i got BAC signal so i added it in let’s see how it plays out check it out by clicking my name
Nice list you have there K
GMCR which today is top performer i backtested and last signal was a buy on 4-22-2009
51.31 haha
btw charlie. see that SRS? i’ll let you know when it changes to the buy side. or you could check the page
I should go rest. haven’t been feeling well the past couple of days.
Junk bonds remained very strong today as stocks faltered. Look at JNK and HYG.
Consequently looks like the final highs in the indexes are still ahead of us.
JNK HYG added. wow Crimson you’re right. they’ve been strong since beginning of april if not since march
Sell in May and go on vacation. Nothing is what it seems so maybe it will be “different this time”.
This story sez that Americans may be holding up better than Mexicans because our standard flue shots might be giving us partial immunity to the new swine flu:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518514,00.html
“The debt offering was a clear signal to investors that the preliminary test results were “not unexpected”, said a person close to Goldman, who said that the bank had determined this outcome did not constitute “material” information.”
Let’s see if there’s still enough fuel to burn some shorts at the stake on Monday…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac2ad492-3516-11de-940a-00144feabdc0.html
K – great job, thanks for sharing!
K
Not only junk bonds but all corporate bond classes have been very strong lately. Especially considering the drop in treasuries.
I have missed much of this stock rally but have done very well in coporate bonds where I have my big bucks invested.
Stress test results to be delayed:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYN.RjdIR9Hg&refer=home
While somewhat rhetorical, what is the point of the stress tests?
stress tests delayed because the swine flu is not yet a pandemic as it was hoped to be by the time they came out!
K
They are waiting for the bear flu
results are not “material” anyway… Do the whales need more time?
this is hilarious once again
“Stocks’ big April could be sign of healing economy”
LOVE IT