Could that have been Pequot liquidating Wednesday afternoon? Maybe they were waiting for the market to return to the top of its range before dumping their holdings.
“The funds, with about $2 billion in assets, will return a ‘significant amount’ of cash to investors by June.”
June is only a couple of trading days away. If it was Pequot doing all of the selling, the market could be expected to float back up on Thursday, given a neutral news-flow. So, the bulls have something to pray for.
George,
Back here, you mentioned that you don’t use the TRIX as described on the page that you linked to. Would you please explain how you use it? Do you adjust its settings to match up with MACD zero-line crossovers, and then use the crossovers the same way?
Matt
Matt, I use the TICK for my daytrading strategy and I find it to be one of the most valuable tool for timing entry/exit. Have you found anything else nearly as good as the TICK for timing trades?
Matt,
That’s correct – I use TRIX like the MACD trendlines. The normal use is to wait until it crosses above or below a specified threshold. I use a second MA and base trades upon the crosses of the two trendlines.
The beauty of the TRIX is its ability to not cause intra-trend whipsaws. It is much smoother. However, the trade-off is that it is a bit slower than the MACD.
The AskResearch charts had the Wilder’s RSI (not to be confused with the common RSI in most charting programs). Again, I didn’t use it in a conventional manner. I used a value of “2″ period which provided spikes in either direction. This indicator will spike to the top and bottom of its range relative to price fluctuation rate of change.
I used Wilder’s with the stochastic because I detected that not all stochastic cycle bottoms at or below 20 is the true bottom. When the stochastic bottoms and the Wilder’s spike bottoms at the same time, it indicates THE bottom of a stochastic cycle.
I miss that indicator. Maybe I can find the formula and Stringm can program it into SD.
whipitaround,
I’m not real familiar with the TICK and its uses but I am interested in how you use it.
JG Says:
May 27th, 2009 at 2:57 pm
“Matt, good update. Love the name MOO… very appropriate. I’ll have to “chew” on following it on a daily basis.”
I got that joke, cud I was raised on a farm. LOL
K,
WTG on your scholarship. With 3 jobs, you won’t have time to spend it. Normally I’d say enjoy school because you have to “work” after you graduate. But you’re already there.
The problem with using less electrical power and other resources is that the utility companies will rase rates because they are not getting enough revenue from reduced usage.
Hmmm, reminds me of another organization that raises their income stream via the masses when they over-spend.
K,
I signed up for SOS. I can’t get a stock chart to come up on the demo account. I’ll give them a call. I’m also going to call TD. After using streaming charts, I can’t give them up! Pitiful or what?
Thanks
George, Thanks!
In this city even though we have good transportation you need a car to enjoy the ladies. I work most summers, enjoy school spring and fall. and maybe work winters if i’m in the mood.
My job as an IT intern at a great hospital is guaranteed by the CIO there which I have networked well with so Out of college I should have a good paying and fulfilling job.
I just love the markets too much that’s why i’ve been working nonstop to get a strategy that works so i won’t spend hours drawing things after work. I hope my strategy is still golden and I stick to it. I would love to share it but not just yet until i forward test it enough to be satisfied.
enough life story… I almost signed up for TOS futures too then realized with my capital of 3.5k invested i’d be wiped clean quick,. lol
George, did you download the software?
Stringm,
I hope to stay on SD. I want to eventually end up with a farm – a trading farm, that is.
One question: Does SD have the ability to detect when a condition is new or fresh. Like, can it say “if 5min is positive and 1min has just turned up” type statements?
Tks… type ya tomorrow
TOS support is AWESOME!!! their email support is SUPERBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
there i said it. friday afternoon i got an email saying that my transfer was rejected from scottrade…they were asking permission to do it a different method. I replied at 9pm that night,,, support responded saying they have forwarded it to the appropriate department. . tuesday came (long weekend) they had resubmitted the paperwork and scottrade called me to cry goodbye
To me, today’s SPX action seemed related to the bond market. Check TNX. When it started to spike, the market sold off. Check the action for the past four days on TNX, then look at the pattern ever since QE was first announced. The bond market doesn’t seem to be impressed with QE.
I’m looking for more downside with minor blips up or areas of consolidation.
To be more specific, TNX started up around 1 pm, and broke out through intraday resistance at around 1:20ish. Immediately upon this breakout, the SPX began to sell off.
jg – that’s the meme that’s been floating around. Check out MacroMan this a.m. or even the WSJ has two stories.
FWIW – I updated last week’s rectangle charts for SPX and looked at daily and weekly, the latter for 7 months and then 08 to date. Consider it my tribute to, synthesis of and kiping of the the “George Method”
All in his longish kinds of post:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/05/what_the_markets_see_yellow_we.html
Didn’t have time to update and include a TNX chart but all that looks like going on to me is a return to abi-normalcy plus all the talking heads getting excited about inflationary futures. Were that twue it’s still so far off that we’ll be able to worry about it then.
jg – also you might be interested in this TNX chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=W&st=2005-01-01&id=p60047207535
Hopefully it reinforces the argument about a return to quasi-normalities, as well as this Simon Johnson post on the NYT Economix blog on the US as an emerging mid-tier economy:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/inflation-fears/#more-14731
George
SD can test for a condition existing on one time frame and an action like you described on a minute chart. What I have never figured out is how to do an event capture. Say a MA has crossed recently on the 15, and you want to start looking on the 5 for another action, maybe MACD. You can test that the MA cross has happened in the last couple of bars on the 15 but it gets too cumbersome to try to test all the scenarios. So basically you are left to test for a condition existing and another action happening. I will send you an example from yesterday.
I don’t think I explained that very well, bottom line the answer to your question is yes. I am suffering from that analysis paralysis you mentioned.
I can design strategies that work well, but they can’t just be backtested and have the same results show through. There is always one or two quirks in areas that skew the results. The bottom line is if you were watching live, the entry point would have been fine, but you would have managed the trade different when that quirk occurred. There is no good way for managing all the quirks. I am stubborn though. I am starting to rethink why I am trying, and just take the trades I see that I know are fair entry points.
String
dblwyo, RE:
“Consider it my tribute to, synthesis of and kiping of the the “George Method” All in his longish kinds of post”.
lol,
For the record, if I had more time, I would have made my posts shorter (tribute Mark Twain).
My bad, that should either have read my “longish” posts or be taken as LOL humor since most of yours are short
!
George, I am a pretty fast trader and will not sell a position unless the TICK is showing signs of improvement along with improvement in other indicators and leading stocks/indexes. On the buy side, I will usually buy when the TICK falls to the lower end of its trending range. I usually do not buy if the TICK breaks its range to the downside…it usually signals continued weakness. On the otherhand, if the TICK was trending negative and it hits a new low followed by higher lows and confirmation in other indicators, i will begin a long position. Hope this helps.
Tony,
Yes, I always have the TICK on my screen. If you have written a post on your blog about how you use it, please post a link a here.
Matt
Stringm,
I see what you mean about the quirks in SD. Knowing the capabilities will help in a design.
Yesterday when Matt pointed out QID 9/36/15 crossing, I did a quick check of the 30min to see if its stochastic was crossed and moving up or the MACD trendlines (and by default histogram) were positive and moving up.
That made all the difference as to whether I got into QID or not.
dblwyo,
I like it the original way you had it. I do get winded at times.
George,
Thanks for the TRIX info, I’ve added it to my screens. Thinkorswim has two indicators called “Wilder’s Smoothing” and “Wilder’s Volatility Indicator” though I haven’t tried them yet. TradeStation doesn’t have Wilder’s RSI, but I’ve found some code on their website that might be it. It seems that Wilder developed a few different formulas.
Film at 11.
Matt
George
Here is a backtest you can run. It also shows how you can test for a condition and then an action happening. It occurred yesterday on QLD. If you decide to run the backtest you will have to select sell short as the action. I tested for 5 conditions on the 15 minute chart. I used different settings than you do, but essentially the same. I tested for the 2MA to be lower than the 6MA. Fast STO was lower than Slow. MACD was lower than Signal. DI+ was lower than DI-. I also tested that Slow STO was still above 80. I then tested that the 5 minute bar was below the 36MA and as soon as the 2MA fell below 6MA on the 5, I knew it was toast and bought QID. I exited when the slow STO on the 15 got below 20. There is an escape clause that if fast sto on the 15 crosses back over fast to exit.
You can backtest this strategy back to January though and you will find 8 winners and 8 losers for 7% profit. 7% is way better than Money Market, but not my goal. When you run a backtest you have the option to display the trade view or the summary view. If you look at the trade view I can go back and see why the 8 losers failed. Had I been in the trade I could have managed it better live and limited the loss or sneaked a profit. So the strategy is not necessarily bad. That’s what I was reffering to earlier when I commented about analysis paralysis
String
ENTRY
MovingAverage[MA,Close,2,0,15,1] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,3,3,15,1] AND
Stochastic[StocK,21,5,3,15,1] < Stochastic[StocD,21,5,3,15,1] AND
MACD[MACD,Close,8,13,5,15,1] < MACD[Signal,Close,8,13,5,15,1] AND
Stochastic[StocD,21,5,3,15,1] > 80 AND
DirectionalMovement[+DI,5,13,15,1] < DirectionalMovement[-DI,5,13,15,1] AND
Bar[Close,5] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,5]AND
MovingAverage[MA,Close,2,0,5] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,3,3,5] AND
MovingAverage[MA,Close,3,3,5,1] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,2,0,5,1]
EXIT
Stochastic[StocD,21,5,3,15] < 20 OR
Stochastic[StocD,21,5,3,15] < Stochastic[StocK,21,5,3,15] AND
Stochastic[StocK,21,5,3,15,1] < Stochastic[StocD,21,5,3,15,1]
Matt, unfortunately, I don’t have the original program with the Wilder’s formula it was using. I suspect it was basic so if there is something that says “original” or “basic” that would have a high probability of the one I was using.
The neat thing about it was its ability to catch exact stochastic cycle bottoms with that 2 value which meant not having to wait for the stochastic to turn up. Very good entry points.
It will be interesting to see what you come up with.
i like SD now lol. was able to spot some fast movers with high volume before open.
500 shares PPHM at 0.8899 out at 1.0601
$85 quick bucks from 9:32-9:41
taking advantage of the rush others are having and snatching a few profits here and there
K
Many moons ago you ran an Altman test on Cree. That tinkerbell is emitting $!
MKB you are sooo right!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
I ran CREE test on my current strategy and 229% since may 2007 (it’s how far ameritrade gives me data in 4hr interval)
Stringm,
Here is a scalp example of BBT. Note the trés amigos must agree. I only got .10c but that’s cool. SKF just gave me a dollar.
Also note how the MACD histogram and the new trendline give a more accurate picture of price movement and the exit is even better than the stochastic.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e541c925-43c7-4b94-82f5-81e63297b2e9
Very nice BBT scalp, George.
Here is the SKF trade. Busy screen, read from left to right to show trade management.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=98b617c4-e9d1-497e-aa15-8fb3318a0d4b
Beautiful scalp, George.
NYSE breadth has turned positive at +255, but the NASDAQ is still reluctant at -343. This rally attempt won’t get far if the ‘daq doesn’t join in.
Last one, geeze, I’m having to re-think how to use MACD with the trendline. I’ve been without it for almost a year. I need to brush up on it. I hope I’m not giving incorrect directions by being confused between the two. We’ll chaulk it up to the learning process.
Here is the last BBT trade. At the outset, I can say that merely following the 5 min would save a lot of grief. However, the same conditions exist on a higher time frame as the lower. And, in a way, it is safer on a lower time frame.
BTW, this is nice – having the ability to annotate while watching a trade.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=468f91c1-6c3d-4de4-b2c1-095a8b3f0241
NASDAQ breadth is creeping up; now at -270.
Matt,
Thanks. Hopefully, this will show more clearly what I’m doing. Taking this method up to higher levels would require less monitoring and possibly easier automation.
Hey, SPX is at 888, maybe that’s the turning point since 666 was the low.
George
First let me say I appreciate the trade info. I can probably get a lot closer to coding with this. It will take me a while. These are 1 minute charts. Did you consider any indicators on the higher time frames?, or did you just trade via the 1 minute without any consideration what the higher time frame was doing.
String
Stringm,
The market is in never never land. One group
of traders thinks the DOW should be at
5000…another group thinks it should be
at 10000. We need clear economic data to
break the tie. It is also getting late in the
cycle. The last 5 SPX low-to-low cycles
were 16 weeks, 17 weeks, 18 weeks, 19
weeks, and 16 weeks. We are now in
week 12.
Hope you are having a great trading day.
Stringm,
Good news. I talked with TDAmeritrade and they said I could use SD for as long as I want and don’t need to fund an account.
We’re there!
Thier rep. was bugging me to set up an appointment with one of their trainers. Nice bug.
SPY bumping up against 15min 36MA.
SPY is being lifted by energy. XLE is the leading sector today at +3.25%.
Julie
Clear economic news is probably not going to happen. Both those camps you mentioned look at what they want to. If you revise a prior months number down so the current month looks like a gain how credible is that. On one hand I would like the true story, but I am afraid it would scare the beejeebers out of me. If my Kids can just keep there jobs I will say a little prayer of thanks every day. Trading is actually good today. When I saw QLD could not bust its 36MA on the 15, I jumped in QID when it rolled over on the 5 and I could se the 36MA on the 5 was declining. Got my.50 and got out. I hate these short chart trades, but what are we to do when things can change so dramatically overnight. I am getting better with yours and George’s input. You are and your mother are fine folks.
String
SPY has 1,5,15 time frames’ stochastic and MACDs moving up together since ~10:40. Doesn’t mean it will last, but shows the power of alignment and how that produces possibly strong(er) move.
Nice String!
The small caps have been the boat anchor today, and now the IWM is working on a bearish engulfing candle on its 15-minute chart.
Nice QID trade, String.
String,
Congrats! on your trade. Continue to
duplicate it.
When you control the press, you can push
the market in the direction you want it to
go.
More and more traders tell us that the powers
to be will crash the market to protect the
Treasury market. We have not seen any evidence
of that happening yet.
Thank you for the very kind comment.
Julie
DIG also made a bearish engulfing candle on its 15-minute chart, so that’s a bad a omen for SPY.
MKB, Matt, Julie
Thanks, I needed that trade too. I tore up my knee palying raquetball last nite. I am in a great deal of pain. I needed something to pick me up. I told my playing partners that since I have had 2 major injuries the last 3 months I needed to think about quiting. They just laughed at me cuz they are 2 and 5 years older than me. It is good to have friends that will goad you..
String
GLD’s 60-minute chart over the last five days looks like a bullish pennant with a breakout on surging volume this morning. A 100% extension of the pennant gives a target of 95.28, though I don’t trade gold and am not an authority on its behavior.
i’ve been kicking myself on GLD as i got a buy signal early may ~88
I refused to buy the highly priced GLD LOL and now regret…
String,
We pray that you have a super quick
recovery….also pray that your children
keep their jobs…as a back-up consider
teaching them how to trade for a living.
Julie
String,
Sorry to hear about the knee. If Dr. Phil were here today, he could fix you right up.
Matt
I moved 50% of portfolio to Natural Gas companies.
Heavy long – trying to protect my future purchasing power
His last famous words.
All the best to all when (not if) this ship goes down!
Bond auction at 1pm; could be a market mover.
Matt, I’ll write a post on TICK tonight and post it in the comments section.
bond vigilantes are gonna be great market mover
they are hitting the 10-yr ahead of the auction
Tony,
Looking forward to it.
Matt
Stringm,
Take care of yourself. Live long and prosper, as Spock would say.
TBT made a 9/36/15 cross-up five days ago and is still holding it. Amazing.
tbt K’s strategy a buy on the 18th at $50 that is my only problem. ameritrade even with alerts kinda stinks but now that i discovered their screener and watch list i will stay on top of the game with just a click of the mouse.
5 minutes!!
ICE nice for two scalps today. The stalwart barometer has a shaky 15min.
i think 898 is where we close today if not higher
The bond auction was not a disaster and stocks are bouncing a bit.
/ZN (10yr tres future) appears to have hit a low for the day with two long tails on the candles. high volume short covering.
Laggard IWM is working on a MACD cross-up on its 15-minute chart.
SPY just broke above this morning’s high.
a lot of QQQQ stocks are experiencing high volume at this moment. i wonder hmm
DIG is blasting higher and may be able to pull SSO up to make a 9/36/15 cross-up soon.
We’ll go back down once it’s discovered that the Treasury Department was the one buying those bonds.
String,
Big traders are using program trading for
quick profits today.
Keep your eye on the SPX to see if it forms
an outside day. If it does odds are 90%
that the EOD trend will continue the next
day.
Julie
Larry’s in the right place today with UNG up 8.5%.
I hope these moves last into the summer instead of the usual summer doldrums.
SKF testing 15min 36MA support.
We spiked the 62 Fib retracement of yesterday’s fall. It would fit EWT wave analysis if we are at/around the top (906-908ish, or a little higher).
Larry, kudos—you seem to be in the right place at the right time.
String,
When you have time, I suggest you visit
…wallstreetcourier.com…scroll down the
page for good market info…at the bottom
of the page go to the next page for
additional info. At the bottom of that
page it gives you the program trading
info…it was around 28% of the NYSE
volume last week.
Julie
SPY has retraced 50% of its bond-auction rally gains. If it resumes rallying from here, a 100% bull-flag extension would be 91.76.
Looks like SSO and QLD will make the 9/36/15 cross-up on the next bar.
Jungle, I’m playing the reflation game. Heavy.
I will get hit. One of these days.
The dollar refuses to die today. UUP is staying strong, and that may hold stocks back.
Hmmm, got an SDS and QID buy alert, but I don’t see why. Could have changed by the time I viewed it.
yes george that happens. :/ is one reason why i don’t want to autotrade because of that but it should turn a buy signal soon maybe?
i think we make a run for yesterdays high. long SPY here
SPY’s bull flag now has a 61.8% extension on strong volume.
K,
I’ll need to research that. I didn’t see any spikes or anomalies like that.
Inverse needs to take a bounce off its 15min MACD here or the party’s over.
SPY is trying to make a mini bull-flag, within its larger flag, on the 1-minute chart over the last 10 minutes.
George
I did not know how you were going to use those alerts. Remember I said you would get one for a cross up or down.
String
Breadth is improving. Even the R2K now has positive breadth.
Bought ung this morning at 13.78. I think it can run to 19. Time will tell.
Stringm,
I believe that’s what happened… a cross down.
If SPY goes much higher, it will be back in another uptrend and the rally continues. How’s that for a revoltin’ development?
Inverse needs to make a stand here.
Awesome UNG play, Jim.
George,
are the moving MA’s anywhere close to a buy?
i think they might have temporarily crossed then reversed. ameritrade tries to be live so it doesn’t happen when the candle closes. sucks