Could that have been Pequot liquidating Wednesday afternoon? Maybe they were waiting for the market to return to the top of its range before dumping their holdings.
“The funds, with about $2 billion in assets, will return a ‘significant amount’ of cash to investors by June.”
June is only a couple of trading days away. If it was Pequot doing all of the selling, the market could be expected to float back up on Thursday, given a neutral news-flow. So, the bulls have something to pray for.
Bernanke is going to have to stab the dollar a few more times if he wants this rally to keep going. UUP is still refusing to roll over.
Julie
The 90% chance. Is that true with all outside days?, or is it because of the big program trades today?
String
I was stopped out of my DZZ play on Wed. for an 11 cent profit. I still think gold is over priced but it just keeps going up.
TradeStation has a floor-trader resistance level for SPY at 91.14, and that’s exactly where SPY is having trouble.
String,
True of outside days, weeks, and months.
But nothing is 100%. You must always
use a stop. Outside weeks and months
move the odds up to 95%. That’s why
you should always look at weekly and
monthly SPX charts…plus the daily.
Julie
K
You can write an alert that only uses completed bars, and that will not occur. What SD is doing (if you use current bar in your alert) is considering every trade like the bar closed. So what happens is it triggers the alert if one trade pushes what ever indicator you are looking at over the threshold. The 5, 15, 30 bar is not complete so the next trade might push the indicator back below the threshold. The only way to prevent that is use 1 and 2 bar ago comparisons.
String
String,
We have a friend who only trades when
she sees a program trade taking shape.
She makes a good living, and we tried
it. But it was too much stress for my
Mother, and she destroyed the S/W.
Paula and I cried for a week.
Julie
UWM finally made its 9/36/15 cross-up, so now all of the ultras have crossed.
when FAZ closes over 5.52 i’ll be happy
K,
I think that is what’s happening. The alerts are working well on some like SKF.
On the auction consider SPX vs TNX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2008-01-01&id=p12784094413
Aside from SlowSto and MACD Stockcharts let’s you ratio two prices to this ratios SPX:TNX – notice the relative constancy of it, the downtrend and the one big swing around the trend.
Stringm,
I’ll take a look at them tonight. That’s what’s going on. If I can’t figure out how to repair them, I may give you an alert for help.
Thanks
dblwyo,
Those look like lightening bolts. But it does show the movement well.
Someone said SPY is going for a daily double top. That could be right-on.
SPY is a little weak right now, but it could try another run for the roses.
SPY is doing the bearish-engulfing candle thing again on its 15-minute chart. Could be unpleasant.
George
Here is the 9/36/15 cross up only that looks at the last 2 completed bars and not the current. You can compare and get a feel for what is going on.
Can’t sit in this chair long, knee is killing me.
String
MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,15,1] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,1] AND
MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,15,2] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,15,2]
R2K breadth has turned negative again. Where are those small-cap gamblers when you need them?
Stringm,
Thanks! Take care and get well soon. Take some protein pills or drink. Naproxin if you have any.
Matt,
lol. Gamblers Wanted. Now there’s a job description for ya.
Wierd, there for a while, I was in BBT and SKF at the same time. I’m going to get an identity crisis.
Spy 5min resting on 36MA support. Will see if this is a turnaround.
SPY bounced right where you suspected it would, George.
ThinkorSwim’s “ThinkAI” artificial intelligence thing is predicting that SPY will close at 90.93. This is the first time I’ve used it, so let’s see how close it can call it. It will probably adjust the target a bit before the close.
AKRX would be nice to watch. 2hrs ago 14-15 million shares traded. then down to less than 1 million.. i wonder if something is coming up? might buy some speculative shares
I’ve been calling it “Sink or Swim” i.e., SOS. But it’s TOS.
Matt, where do you find that? (tos has so many options)
never mind i think need 25k
BBT double top on 15min. Not touchie.
K,
I see it on the TOS charts screen right to the left of the “Edit Studies” icon.
Matt
ThinkAI did not get sucked into SPY’s run up to 91.17, but did raise its target to 90.97.
ThinkAI is very confident that there will be no surprises before the close.
is yours a demo matt? weird
When SPY tried to break through TradeStation’s floor-trader resistance level at 91.14, ThinkAI just laughed.
K,
No, it’s a live account where I trade futures. I may have had to turn an option on somewhere to get the ThinkAI icon to show up. I turned it on a long time ago when Yerk told me about it, but haven’t used it until now.
Matt
ThinkAI has lowered its SPY target to 90.87.
oh well sucks for me lol
K,
The AI robots won’t work for you until you have a car. They are very snobby.
Matt
Julie,
the 5K vs 10K question. I agree with all you’ve said and if the market is seen as a matter of national security strange things do happen. Talking about U vs L-recovery with a CFO I mentioned the stock market proves it to be a V. The guy went ballistic – talking about millions of fools etc. These increased f&e spend and kept all employees aboard during the Asian crisis, 9/11 you name it. Now the only question is how much must be cut to save the organization. And this US is recovering faster talk – they are market leader globally and not much is moving anywhere.
I don’t think the potential systemic crisis is gone. Time-frames are murky, but I don’t see much moving in a constructive direction. Commodities are an obvious play – until Larry moves out of nat gas
+900 billion sitting as bank deposits with the Fed – which Dow level do you want to buy? Not much one can do about it other than to enjoy this:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/even-bloomberg-openly-ridiculing-tim.html
ThinkAI did a pretty good job of predicting a relatively un-eventful close.
qqqq’s might sink thanks to dell. lol
what a chopfeast. i got into spy just before the wedge brokeout at 2:21 EST but got stopped out at my buy price and wasnt able to sell any of it.
Matt, give me a robot and i’ll buy a car
Tony,
Yes, those last two hours were incredibly choppy.
Matt
Yerk,
Thanks for the link. We trade the intermediate
term (IT) move and the short term (ST)
corrections. We are still long off of the
March low and will take profits when we
think the IT trend has changed.
Since the next Bradley date is 6/3/09, we
are looking for a possible(IT) trend change around
that date.
Hope you had a great trading day.
AKRX is my knucklehead gamble play so matt hire me as one of the gamblers. let’s see how it turns out
“Matt, give me a robot and i’ll buy a car” lol
Priceless!
Stringm,
I think I’ve found something that can be automated that checks the major intraday trend then uses the 1 and 5min to swing in and out. I’m fixing dinner right now so I’ll give it to you later with some examples.
Tomorrow I’ll be out in the AM for another doctor appointment. I keep them in BMWs lately.
Later…
Are the ThinkAI targets typically helpful?
Tony,
I just started using it today, so I don’t know. You use TOS, right?
Matt
Julie,
June might be possible. The uncertainty is a fabricated blow-off during this topping process. Best wishes to you, too.
I’m not going into details, but this one is still too positive. Systemic crisis follows from regulatory mistakes. As these are not addressed, the crisis will continue:
http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/05/der-nachste-schuh-next-shoe.html
George
Have you compared SD with the freestockchart site? I can’t get mine to match up data wise. The settings or the same, but when I use the crosshairs on FS and SD the data is off. Like on the SKF trade when the 3 went below the 9MA, my SD MACD did fall below zero. I have the FS and SD MACD set at 12,26,9. I am confused, can you compare for me.
String
Stringm, freestockchart does not use the NYSE quotes but relies on trades in their system. This might explain the difference.
Stringm,
I noticed that too. Additionally, StockCharts doesn’t line up either. There are differences among trading platforms. I use BigCharts for research and it is different too!
The main thing I suppose is using that to describe methods. It took me a while to get used to SD charts having used AskResearch and StockCharts forever. Regardless, once I got used to SD, even though it is slightly different, I knew what to look for.
I mainly try to adjust the indicators to track price as closely as possible. Once that’s done, all else falls into place.
Yerk,
That’s another difference then. I notice FSC did not update price as frequently as SD. Nor is Scottrade in sync with either of those!
BTW, Stringm, one difference is when their “clock” is started for each bar. So if one platform starts counting the 5min with 1 or 2 minute difference from another, the candle will not be painted the same.
George
Will if you see the difference too we can work around it. If I had been trying to backtest the SKF trade it would have taken me out of the trade when the HIST went below the line. Keep that in mind for the stuff you think we can automate. Naproxene hell, I need MORPHINE.
String
“Naproxene hell, I need MORPHINE.”
You kneed to elevate that leg and put ice packs on it for 10min at a time.
Hi guys, had to take mom to surgery today, so looks like you had a lot of fun
well yesterday I took a long position overnight of RIMM, which is a departure as I don’t do that anymore, it is win lose or draw at the end of day, and its been mostly wins since my education from George. But anyway what I meant to say is that if all the experts here can look at RIMM? as I think it still has the most to gain over the next little while, it is filling the gap of sept. 08, much later than most of the tech.. I guess it is my first swing trade (see Julie I am learning), but with tight stops. So please look at it technically and let me know what you think? do you see what I see? Thanks
Also RIMM right now being a front runner, I think it would also be a good indicator for the indexes.
It’s a narrow trading range all right:
http://sentimentrader.blogspot.com/2009/05/what-range.html
It looks like a pennant forming for a final blow out…
narrowminds,
Yes, it could be a pennant, and it could also be an NR7-2. We last discussed the NR7-2 back here on May 8th:
http://www.trivisonno.com/qs-recuse
…and that coil did indeed forecast weakness going forward.
I agree with what George said back here:
Matt
narrowminds,
RIMM has a very impressive chart. I can’t see anything much wrong with it from the long perspective. It did close above the daily Bollinger Band today, and that often signals a pullback is due, but it has broken out of the range it has been trapped in for the past month, so it might only have a minor pullback.
Matt
The breath of advances has been reducing:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/Sh7nw5pNfMI/AAAAAAAAA1g/vTXjp3csMCA/s1600-h/SPYbreadth.png
Matt, it does look as if the techs are catching up, so when the front runners finally come to a stop, the market will start to roll over… we might be witnessing the early start, not the end though of the run up (I think there is a final blow, when all the funds waiting to dump will start dumping) – this could also explain the decline in the advancers in kenny’s chart I posted earlier.
narrowminds,
Yes, breadth is one of my favorite internals to study. Here’s me back on May 12th commenting on the weakening breadth. It has improved some since then, but is still looking very wobbly. One thing I will say for it is that it is making higher lows. Breadth was horrible on May 13th, but less horrible on May 21st, and even less horrible on May 17th. If that less-horrible trend continues, the market may be able to break out.
Matt
Matt, This could be ‘the’ absence of sellers which is causing the higher lows.. but no new buyers for those stocks, so they are not declining, but not going up either… it could be the base of the pyramid, the hot stocks are still being chased by the buyers driving them and the market higher… sucking in more buyers who don’t want to miss the boat, but they might be coming in at the worst time, and left holding the bag after a big blow up…