It’s time for the monthly jobs report again, and as always, I have no idea what the bureaucrats will come up with. Some people imagine that they see green shoots in the jobs data, but the bottom line is that the US economy continues to shed jobs at a frightening pace. There has been no improvement whatsoever. Take a look at the third chart on this page – the 12-month moving average chart. Maybe you can see a green shoot there, but I sure can’t.
Wednesday’s rally was broken when the Q’s fell through their VWAP on the one-minute chart at 1pm. They struggled to regain it for an hour, but threw in the towel at 2pm, and made a 9/36/15 cross-down on the last bar of the day. The futures have been weak during the seven hours since the close, and unless there is a sizeable upside surprise from the jobs data, the market will very likely continue downward Thursday morning.
From Google News: “California plans to begin issuing billions of dollars in IOUs today to scores of creditors, including private businesses and county governments.”
Does this now mean that the general public can give IOUs to their creditors? I don’t think credit card companies would go for that. Or perhaps they would if they could continue to add on 20% interest. Speaking of which, all of those sharks have quickly raised rates to beat the government’s limits on those black holes.
My prediction: The market will go to the moon today in light of this extremely bad news. And especially if unemployment comes in higher than expected.
Every day’s a holiday and every meal’s a feast, pray for volatility.
FED will try to force banks to accept these useless and worthless IOUs.
For the bulls it doesn’t matter what the unemployment rate will be. If it’ll be below expectations they will say: “See green shoots everywhere.” If it’ll be higher, they will say: “This is the worst scenario one could imagine. It can’t get any worse. So this is the bottom.”
The only thing they are at least a bit worried is earnings. Show me the numbers, you bull biyatches.
Dressguard,
How true that is… justification for their case regardless… is that not funny?
Are the futures really down? Funny!
WOW – futures are down nicely after a horrific jobs report, maybe bad news really means the market will tank…
Folks.. this is a island reversal pattern that we have…
I don’t understand why the jobs report was horrific. It was better than consensus. Bulls would have loved higher unemployment rate, obviously.
You’d think…
9.5% – and that is likely way understated, we were not supposed to get this far until fall/EOY – this makes 11% “reported” unemployment look like a synch.
But don’t worry, stimulus is on the way…
Just took profits on my SPY 92 PUTS..
Here’s what happened for me over the past 2 days..
SPY 90 PUTs Buy 1.03 – Sell 1.26 = + 22%
SPY 90 PUTs Buy 1.23 – Sell 1.26 = + 2%
SPY 90 PUTs Buy 1.60 – Sell 0.88 = – 45%
SPY 92 PUTs Buy 1.41 – Sell 2.60 = +84%
SPY 92 PUTs Buy 1.55 – Sell 2.60 = +68%
Net was around +13% for the costs across all the positions.
Charlie:
Not sure what you’re day job is but you’ve done some mighty fine hedging on the side!
Just bought some SRS and sold covered calls on the position.
Sorry, grammar there – should be “your” although you’re playing well Charlie.
Thanks Mitch.. I’m actually quite busy at work, but have a 2nd monitor with real time charting… Been getting more and more comfortable with drawing trendlines recently…
Not proud that I was shaken out of my SPY 90′s yesterday.. Decided to swap those for SPY 92′s instead as this market was looking very bullish yesterday morning.
Charlie, WTG! I’m into trendlines a bit now too. My problem is that price is always moving on the rightmost edge so I don’t know where the line should go on current price.
.SDSGC made over $110 (aka 50%) i bought yesterday the option and saw it now WOW
am out take profits like a man!!!
That’s the hard part George. I think that if you throw a FIB line on first.. that might help you identify areas of potential support/resistance and I then draw lines based on the peaks/valleys that have already been established.
Charlie, FIb… good point.
Yo K, Don’t holler too loudly over there, the babes may come runnin’ to ya.
bought at 1.75 sold at 3.20
George, I can’t holler my throat hurts and yet another day of sunny morning rainy afternoon and cold but clear night!
Nice one there K
George & Charlie:
I haven’t penned them yet but I’ve got a feel for trends/ranges lately. I took a total draw down two months ago but many {traders/speculators} may have had P/L problems from the lack of major trend moves since we started accepting price and making smaller range moves. If we don’t make big moves then it would seem {investors} come in as we iron out the huge volatility wrinkles no? How many black swans are there – unless we’re breeding them?
doesn’t look like the market wants to bounce. Was hoping for one so I could re-add my puts.
george……….hope your cat is ok
mitch……..are you MKB or another mitch?
I’m MKB & Mitch. I wasn’t obfuscating just using different machines/accounts.
Thanks for reminding of that Phil.. I have pets too.. and it is sad when something happens to one of them.
I hope your cat is ok too George
Thanks phil and Charlie. Cat at the vet since yesterday. I’ll get him back tomorrow, traumatized, I’m sure. My wife’s out of town so I’m the main caretaker.
Mitch,
Nice to hear you have a nack for trends. If you have any tips on trends and ranges I’m all digital eyes.
Ain’t it nice to get a gut-feel for things?
K,
Get some of that Ouzo from Greece, it’ll cure anything. Or… you won’t care after you drink it.
Guys/Gals I’m signing off for a bit. phil I made some comments questions about $/gold yesterday hoping you were around.
S/B knack, not nack…
Flaky = BBT. It isn’t down much from yesterday but…
I’m waiting on it to set up for a bigger play, but it is acting wierd today. May not trade it.
VIX play option of $30 by july expirations is kinda saying “i’ve had enough” but i doubt it
Bulls were disappointed with the government agencies fudging the data. Bulls wanted more bullshitting.
Charlie
If you like covered calls T goes ex-div next week. Buy some T, write in the money calls, I used the 23. Capture the divy next week $.40, unwind the call or let it get called away.
String
Stringm,
Nice play. We missed you.
Intraday gaps not going to get filled… just yet anywho.
I didn’t like the inverse gapping up today. SKF gave a buy two days ago on the 60min. I’m going to ride those Sympathy Shares until that time frame flips.
K, you’re up almost another $2 in your Sympathy Share Swing System. Should I sell here or hang on?
George
Mother was in the hospital, and plenty of fix ups around her house for me. She is fine I think it was a case of let’s test cuz medicare pays for everything. She went from not having any blood flow in her lower heart to fine all in a week.
String
Thanks for the advice Stingm
Just looked at those options for T and I see there is almost no time premium for them at $23. T $23 July Calls are at $1.48 – $1.55 while the shares are currently at $24.50. That’s less than a 5 cent premium in terms of time.
Seems like T has more room to fall a bit. I might buy if this falls further.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY ALL !! hasta la vista bay bee
Charlie
I didn’t mean to imply to buy right this minute. I’d wait till it busts a move on the 5. You have to have someone willing to buy those calls. I bought last Tues @24.25 and sold the calls this monday @25. Just keep an eye on it. I mentioned it because you have mention you did CCs.
String
oic.. String.. yes.. what you did was quite smart.. and is the way I usually trade covered calls. Buy a security and wait for it to rise and sell the covered calls. Sometimes I even sell the underlying security and go naked on my calls (as my broker doesn’t allow me to go naked on calls.. only puts for some reason)
Just sold some naked SRS 21 PUTs. I will buy SRS if the shares are below $21 at option ex. Which I wouldn’t have a problem doing at all since we are on our way to bears land right now.
XLF making new intraday lows. SPX likely not going up while that’s occurring.
XLF at lower wedge line. It either needs to drop or we could get a lift in the markets. Eye on volume.
Stringm,
Good to hear your mom is well. Isn’t today’s medical technology great? You had your priorities correct.
Glad you are okay too.
Stringm,
that’s great news about your Mom
Very worrisome indeed when something happens to our loved ones.. cat or human..
Banks drifting further through intraday lows . . . .
String:
Glad your Mother’s ok.
I am glad you shared the option strategy to catch a divy. I, like k, am always up to learn something new.
I’m glad I stayed away from BBT today. Whew… what a scary 5min chart.
FINALLY got a multi-dollar day move on SKF.
George:
Some banks have sandbags all around them for protection. However, I believe the other kind of sand baggin’ is going on there too. There’ll be some consolidation and failures but some of this banks can flat out deliver a wallop to any heavy short and I think some could explode up when they quit doing the rope-a-dope. Just sayin’
Let’s see if Mr. Market can make a decent comeback before the close.
Shorts should start covering soon?
WOW, I just spotted something on my charts that could be a simple method to trade!
I’ll explain it after the close when I have more time.
Guys
Thanks for the concern on my mother. I might not have communicated well. She never really had a problem. She complained to her Doc about being tired. So they ran every test they could, and had her take a stress test. The stress test showed improper blood flow in her lower heart. So then they did an angiogram or whatever it is, and we were told she would get a stint or they would ballon the blockage. She had neither, there was no blockage. An 80 yo lady has a right to be tired. She sure enough was tired after all they put her through.
The risk you run on covered calls to capture the divy is the stock falls below the strike price you wrote. You can hedge that pretty easy with T by buying SDS if the market tanks. You have .40 cents of divy to play with. After the Ex-div date you can buy the call back and sell the stock. T is not likely to be below 23 by the end of next week. As Charlie pointed out there isn’t much time premium. So with comission and slipage getting in and out you could still net 20-25 cents for a week. If you are lucky enough to get in like George does on a lower time frame and let it run up a little before you sell the call you do even better. On a thousand shares @ 24,580 a return of 200 in a week ain’t that bad considering what interest rates are. I bought 4000 shares last week and had a small profit. Rather than sell the stock and miss the divy, I sold the calls. After Ex Div it looks like I can buy back the calls for less than I sold them for. I will try to time that when the stock is going up. Then I will sell the stock.
String
The risk
HA, man, BBT would have been a killer today. Mercy.
I was so hoping for SKF $45 but alas, it’s not in the cards – yet.
That last surge on SKF was 4th of July icing fireworks!!!!
Scalps-Я-Us
Tradersville: Where every day’s a holiday and every meal’s a feast. Pray for volatility.
Stringm,
You got those calls down good. I don’t understand everything you said but I did copy it and saved it to my trading library.
Thanks
Hope everyone’s holiday is GREAT.
I’m going to change Tradersville to Mattgicville… more appropriate.
A good week.
Here’s what I noticed. I haven’t studied this but I intend to over this long weekend. Stringm, this could probably be programmed, too.
I use a parabolic SAR (.09) on all time frames. I don’t use it in my current trading method and really don’t pay a lot of attention to it.
I noticed that on the 1min, if the SAR has a dot (used for stop-loss normally but we’re using it for a buy signal) below the candle and the higher time frame (in this case the 5min) has a dot below it, that is a buy. Sell would be common methods like stochastic, MACD, etc. At this point, Just from eyeballing it, I don’t believe the SAR would be a good signal but I don’t know that yet.
For an example, look at BBT 1min today, Thursday, July 2. Go to all of the SAR buys and compare them with the 5min SARs: Now, use a 15min screen – no trades. I’m not suggesting using it on a stock like this that had such a hard down day, but it shows how a trade can be entered rather successfully.
This won’t get in the trade as early as other methods, but the tradeoff is a more secured entry.
Now look at SKF 1min and 5min. There it shows the benefit. Or, get into a trade on the 1min and hang in there until the 5min pulls the plug.
I don’t know if this is of any value, but it is worth taking a closer look.
Let me know what you think.
Many cash cows today.
Due to its low price (double your shares, double your fun) and the way it has been beaten down, my favorite was SRS. I give it the “most likely to succeed” award. Nothing but Carolina Blue above it.
MOOOooooo
Mattgicville: Where every day’s a holiday and every meal’s a feast. Pray for volatility.
Check out Mish… Sweden takes ZIRP to NIRP…
questioning,
Is it possible to go to negative interest rate? I didn’t know that.
Of course they can. They can even make hookers pay you f***cking them.
http://www.businesspundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/zzamericandream-600×683.png
laugh then cry. or just cry your choice
http://www.businesspundit.com/nightmare-layoff/
HAH
Matt,
hope you had a great 4OJ and thanks for your great efforts.
A scam by any other name is a scam the same. Take a look at GS – are they any different compared to Madoff?
http://www.correntewire.com/great_american_bubble_machine_0
And then, a video on youtube that beats the revolution drum – for today’s citizens. This is a must-see if only for info as to what is being spread around. I’m curious as to what the market does when there is turmoil in the population.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA