Traders this morning are talking about the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which is showing the highest levels of bullishness since May of 2008.
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Wow, I get to be first on this thread. A first first.
Dumped my last shares of QID this morning–which equals capitulation on my short positions. Which means, of course, that after they run n’ gun this, the whole market will get slammed down:)
marty,
Matt’s preamble in this thread tells the story. When one side or the other gets giddy, expect a change cause the smart money is chompin’ at the bit to get their coins.
Can I say “inverse”?
Two things are guiding this market, imho: USD, which is rallying, and, at this very moment, the market is buying GDP rumors. I think tomorrow, or even late today, there will be a sell the news moment. Still, not sure how strong that selling will be.
rather, declining… but was rallying yesterday
SPY almost looks like a blow-off top. Not likely, but it has been so long since I’ve seen one…
It will take until Christmas to get a Tres Cruzars on SKF. Those MAs were separated at birth then dropped to hades.
Used to get $20 in a trade on SKF, now lucky to get .20c. My, how things change.
Dos Cruzars work well also.
Pardon my English George, but SKF ain’t where the action is… It’s tech that’s leading the charge. Even the homebuilders have been moving… It’s the Cramer charge off the cliff. The question is, how far away is that cliff…
The pullback in China yesterday seems like it was a headfake. If Asia goes V-shaped–a BIG if–then it might just keep us from falling too much. The sell-off in the past two days was mighty shallow, with bullish action at EOD on both days. That’s why I dumped the QID.
TQNT, SKWS, RFMD, TSM… some names to keep in mind…
George, the GS upgrade of GE was timed so well, this move up is based on strong govt support. Don’t confuse your tax money at work with a blow-off top
George,
What do you think of shorting ICE?
Are people using real money when they buy at 990? Or is it just funny digits from the bail-out?
Marty,
I agree.
I just trade certain ones, mainly those that have inverse. I haven’t traded the Q’s lately and that has been a mistake. I do trade real estate and it has been good as of late.
So, I don’t try to find the big movers, I just go with a handful and get what they offer. If I was more aggressive I’d chase the big(er) movers.
Larry:
We’re cleaning out the closet:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egaLLElOQks&feature=channel
Larry,
If you can really tell the difference between the two, you will be a rich man. Perhaps you already are…;) But who ever said the markets were rational? My shorting has been a net loser for me so far this year. Whereas long, I’ve cleaned up. At some point that has to change, but I keep thinking it’s “now” and it isn’t.
George,
I didn’t mean to imply you should be more aggressive. You know what you’re doing–much more than I can say for myself. I was just pointing out the obvious… and, as I like to play momentum, that’s where my attention goes…
Marty,
I didn’t see your ICE post. If and when it hits that 36MA on the daily, that would be a good place to short it. That is, of course, if it fails the test of that MA.
marty,
I think momentum plays are the safest and most profitable. I’ve hit a few of those with luck, but I don’t have the ability to spot them beforehand. I’d need to learn how to do that. I’ve never researched it either and I will put that on my list due to its benefits.
Congrats on you long success! I usually glance at the daily and weekly to find out general direction then go from there. Often, it will possible coming changes in direction.
S/B “Often, it will show possible changes in direction.
George,
It’s tough, you look for volume, accumulation, and a solid trend line. I bought some of the tech plays back in late June/early July, and their earnings confirmed. I sold a couple last week, and I just sold half of my positions today on RF, AAUK, EXC. The big winner was AAUK… just in case this really is a blow-off top, though I don’t think it is. I keep a rolling book, usually no more than five or six stocks, though now I’m into about 10. The big loser is UNG!
marty:
If Eminem wasn’t helpful – LOL, we’ve got some built up capital meeting underinvestment that is acting as a slingshot.You’ve made some very good and mature moves.
the first 5 minutes today broke throug 2R’s in spx pivots and the 3rd is broken so yes we’re officially bullish today
am down $250 crap.
spx 30july
R3 989.67
R2 983.72
R1 980.57
P 974.61
S1 971.46
S2 965.5
S3 962.34
Currently at 991.78 so it has broken all 3 resistances for the day.
have a good day
Mitch,
I don’t know if I have. Only time will tell. I was holding QID as a hedge on my tech buys. AAPL keeps going up, and I sold half of that at 140. That was dumb!
for the record, I love eminem. Always have.
Trin over 2?
SPY nearing 5min 36ma support with this drop.
phil Says:
July 29th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
george….see the triangle forming ?…i believe we POP THE TOP BEFORE WE FLOP……ie POP up to A then FLOP down to B http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-07-28_spx.png
>>>>>george…..we popped the top…selling 1/2 QLD before we flop
matt……..thanks for your help……phil
Phil
Are you picking up any TLT before the flop?
String
string………funny u should ask……just bought some 10 yr coupon bonds about 20 min ago…..want to get more evidence of stock peak before i buy zero coupon treasuries
Phil
How do you buy those instruments? I only know ETFs, learn me something!
String
Cash for clunkers: VOW expects German market down 25% next year. Well done govt, too bad I still have no clue which party to vote for as they all are nuts.
BASF is seeing indications for a bottoming building but does not expect strong rebounds next year. Most positive on China – too bad building more excess infrastructure does not help the broader economy.
string….i have a schwab account……they have a screen where you can buy bonds online but you have to go thru the broker to sell….i have other brokers but i have to buy and sell with broker so i dont get as good a deal ….i would rather not have humans involved at all…..lol
Phil
What’s the take on buy coupon vs zeros? How do you determine on coupons when the interest payment is made?
String
POP! http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-07-30_1000.png
added Aug 92 spy puts @ .4
missed adding back 1/3 of my VXX, i’m bidding 60.75
To complete Matt’s comment about wildly realistic investors, here’s the chart they are looking at:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/EPS%203.jpg
(Current analysts’ eps forecast for the next quarters)
spx top @996.68 does not work. It should be 996.66 or 999.66
Dax broke resistance at 5335 today so next stop 5500 eg +2%. Expecting some crazy gdp numbers tom, they are going to change the calculation and recalculate the time series. Reminds me of the Russian proverb “In capitalism the future is uncertain, in communism the past”
string….coupons less risky because you are getting interest payments to ivest at higher rates if they rise…zeros ..depending on maturity are much more volatile and the rate is locked in compounding till maturity..zeros are best held in tax deferred accts like retirment accounts …they have phantom interest…you pay tax yearly on the accrued interest even tho you dont get it till maturity…
Phil,
One thing that’s good about having to go through a broker is that it prevents you from overtrading. It might just be worth the cost/hassle…
Matt’s next magic number is 997.89 so this might count as a hit… 1014.58 next stop (which would align with the dax target). After that, new box
George,
Where are you in your recovery? Have
you passed the 50% point yet? Stay
on a positive track. Take care.
paula,
I have 6 weeks no lifting anything heavier than a milk carton. Lots of swelling and still a little pain right now. The mesh used has to adhere to everything and I understand it does a good job.
Thanks
I’m putin’ on my crash helmet just in case.
George,
Hope pain goes away quickly. Stay
on recovery road.
George, best wishes for a comfortable recovery.
gas.to – i sold this today @ 6 even, just over breakeven after commish…
heading out, see what you all can do about getting that dow, etc. back down a bit…
Thanks paula, after,
I know one thing – harder to recoup when you’re older.
George, I do hope at least the market treats you well – this seems to get easier when you’re older. Bulls need a moar today or one more of these infamous gaps tom to break out of the box.
I’m really tempted to buy a little FXP today. Energy and oil services very weak. Divergence in the market.
Just bought a small FXP starter position. On verra bien.
Phil
I just bought some TLT, but I plan to look more into buying the individual bonds. All I have ever done is bought short term 3 month stuff in the past. It was marginally less than CDs so I thought what the heck. I don’t know what lit a fire under my TLT position, but it was fun. Got me a whopping 100 shares too.
String
the daily ndx candle would look really beautiful as an island… paula, are the 13 days over?
Folks are acting like they don’t trust the GDP to be better than expected. If it isn’t a we get a gap down, we could have a nice little island top.
String
well After,
I was away for most of the afternoon to be able to grab some quick snacks on the SPY and others.
congrats on the SPY 92 calls
i’ll stay at work a few more mins and post /ES (s&P futures) pivots for tonight and tomorrow. then am outie
Futures for tonight and tomorrow
R3 1013
R2 1003.5
R1 992.5
P 983
S1 972
S2 962
S3 951.5
currently at 982 (Just below Pivot point)
he futures have bounced off the 983 pivot and want to head for 992+ let’s see if we get 1000 today or if we get 970
K the gdp-die roll will decide
Yesterday’s top looks pretty solid but who knows.
you know the top can be blown off when the gdp-die is being rolled then when it lands on a funny number it can squash itself
to me I would prefer we’re up to 988 or higher on futures right before the die gets rolled so then we can really come down and scare the life out of every living soul
It looks like you get your wish… When will the oracle tell the lesser people what the results are?
don’t get me wrong though am short and getting crushed
SD had updates. I didn’t notice what they were but I put in the new version.
Yesterday’s gap up on SPY daily created an inverted hammer of some type. I don’t know candle-talk well, perhaps someone could make sense of it.
Yeah, meant to point out that the SPX chart didn’t have the same candle.
anyone up and biting any nails this morning ?
ah, setting up the island reversal.
by awesome plan i meant the post at 7:27am
to me I would prefer we’re up to 988 or higher on futures right before the die gets rolled so then we can really come down and scare the life out of every living soul
After:
can I get away with calling this feeling focused? I saw a pic of the Chinese retired and other investors in what was defined as a securities firm but looked more like a casino running it up in Shanghai.
983 was futures pivot and looks like it pivoted underneath it
we’re gonna rebound but I hope still below 983
solars are getting crushed today