Comments on: Thursday’s Trading

By: Crimson Ghost

Crimson Ghost — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:43:33 +0000

For some strange reason days when the McClellan Osc. shows little change are almost always followed big market moves the next day.

With the Oscillator virtually flat today despite the big jump in the averages the odds are at least 10 to one that another big move is coming tomorrow. With the Osc still somewhat depressed the odds favor another big rally rather than a big drop IMHO.

By: Pooch

Pooch — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:09:35 +0000

Don’t know if i have the guts to roll puts into calls on a bounce,because of the debockle that actually was a blessing in disguise.So at this point I may just sell puts hold cash and look for a re entry point.Hat is off to Rich were ever he is,his call for this week was awesome,last night I thought the chances were nil to none,maybe we need to take up a collection for him to buy a lap top when he is vacationing.

By: admin

admin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 23:47:14 +0000

Danny,

Beautiful work.

Since the market peaked back on August 11th, we can probably expect a replay of the “two days of rest and then more losses” pattern. So, it looks like shorting bounces will be the thing to do at this point.

Thanks,
Matt

By: Pooch

Pooch — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 23:07:43 +0000

The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this week’s decline. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week’s decline, July’s low crossing at 1765.25 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing near 1905.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted.

The September S&P 500 index closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the reaction low crossing at 1261.00 confirming a
downside breakout below August’s trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI a bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends today’s
decline, the reaction low crossing at 1231.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at
1282.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the reaction low crossing at 11,290 thereby renewing the decline off
July’s high. Today’s bearish economic data sent the Dow into a tailspin as traders see further slowdown in the economy as a
real possibility. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends today’s decline, the reaction low
crossing at 11,128 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,525 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

By: Danny

Danny — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:58:20 +0000

Matt, I have your answer about all sectors down here

By: Gerard

Gerard — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:43:04 +0000

Re: futures. Interesting. I’m not seeing any news. Somebody thinks tomorrow is going to be scary. Bill Gross & PIMCO is the big news today. If PIMCO is saying they are backing away from the market, that could cause other big players to back away as well. A liquidity implosion? The odds of Crash getting his crash are growing.

Tomorrow will be interesting, not so much for the employment numbers but for a continuation of the PIMCO theme. I feel sorry for Hank Paulson. January 20th cannot come soon enough. He’s had time to look under the hood of Fannie and Freddie and I suspect he has found a lot more nasty stuff. He’s got nothing but crappie choices and now Bill Gross is going to force his hand. I suspect Paulson intends to do exactly nothing until the markets close the liquidity window on the GSE. We live in interesting times.

By: Dblwyo

Dblwyo — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:35:44 +0000

….oops, that was supposed to be “THIS is a downturn ???”

fat fingers, slow keyboard, network response time….

By: Dblwyo

Dblwyo — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:33:20 +0000

Let me float another idea from the fundamentalist wacko corner for somebody here to poke at. If you look at a 6Mo chart of some key sector ETFs, say XLF, XLP, XLY, XLI, XLE, XLK a couple of things strike me. It appears that only the Financials have really been the action. Everybody else’s flat…ish. If you believe an economic recovery is around the corner o.k. pass on. If you believe we’re just starting into the real downturn then the reat of the market’s not reflecting that, whatever the strength of the downturn. You can tell stories: XLE/XLB - worldwide slowdown discovered = demand destruction. Works for me. Ditto XLI. XLK - oops, technology’s not immune and currency conversion gone. XLP, XLY, XLV - this is a downturn. Strikes me there’s some other trading opportunities that ought to be hoving over the horizon for you guys. Whaddyathink ?

By: admin

admin — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 22:18:03 +0000

The S&P futures just dropped about 8 points. Anybody know why?

By: Tony G

Tony G — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:54:16 +0000

Everybody needs to check out TWM. It is the 2x inverse ETF for the Russell 2000. The Russell has been the strongest index lately and is hanging on to support. If TWM is purchased at $70, there is 36% upside if it hits its prior high of $95. Year to date, TWM has not traded below $62 so your downside is 11% with a stop in place. We have seen what has happend to each index as they break support (see QQQQ, SPY, and the Semiconductor index)