SPY is defying its $98 max-pain target, which is a sign of strength. Of course, the big options players don’t need to beat SPY back down to $98 until Friday’s close, but if the market rallies again on Thursday, the chances of them being able to do that diminishes.
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European mkts back acting bullish. FTSE gapped up and is currently above R2 level being driven by financials and miners early this Thursday morning. ES has also hit 1003.5
Shanghai up 4.5% today.
K – “Germany braces for second wave of credit crunch”. Do you have a link for that one?
If anyone were to understand the link between this chart and the s&p… Directionwise they do not deviate most of the time – why now? pomo/qe??
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pCDyiFUv9XU/SosmppdFjZI/AAAAAAAAFuY/VSpg0K7mXCc/s1600-h/Net+government+Saving6.png
Yerk,
not sure how you trust this source but this news story isnt much of a hit with other news sources
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6050822/Germany-braces-for-second-wave-of-credit-crunch.html
first goldman on the US…
next…
Britain has emerged from the worst recession since the Second World War, new Bank of England figures suggested yesterday …
HAHA oh man
999 is a turning point for futures. looks to me like we’re headed for 990′s later today. only one signal so far has triggered and i’m waiting on 2 more
anyone know a company related closely to sugar price?>
SUGAR CRISIS
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/247153/august-19-2009/colbert-platinum—urbane-nomads–gigayacht—michael-jackson-diamond
funn morning and am done
market up again. just glad I ditched my short position yesterday.
576k unemployment claims.. of course bad news props the market up. JEEZ
nvm my futures feed wan’t updating looks like reality is back ?
K thanks, semi-reliable. That’s old stuff from a local perspective. Same game everywhere. Banks refuse to lend money to more or less dodgy customers and socialist politicians throw money at them. A leading German politican said recently that no company should fail during a crisis, this should only be allowed to happen during growth periods. rofl.
Charlie, I went short at 1002 – so far so good. In the last days I have always caught the counter-trend moves maybe this time it’s different…
my 7:30am call looks promising.
2nd indicator is almost Sell.. 3rd is flat out neutral.
am talking on the hourly scale.
we might be able to bounce to 999 again in the futures before the next down leg
Yerk:
A.E.P. Breaking the silence? This is why I’ve said USD/EUR taking lock steps. Buffet and the U.S. debt chatter cooled off the $ and sprinkle a little German credit “surprise” and you get stalemate.
All we have now are little bull flurries in the market. the bull storm has settled IMHO.
hehe 999 again (998.50) healthy rally after jobs report. now 992 next stop?
K:
This could be broad my man – look out!
OOOO this is unhealthy but it got 15 mins or so to stay below 999 to satisfy me. then again these sell indicator fakeouts aren’t that uncommon
I’m waiting for JG.
Makes sense the market is going up with the dismal jobless claims.
Wow, bids hitting the fan now. Lots of activity.
perfect! 993 here we come. we needed this rally to expand the the bands!
notice on the 14th at 3:55 PM the price and the highest today for SPX.
1004.06 then 1004.08 now.
gap filled perhaps?
If so, time for reversal to the downside?
am just speculating. my positions are set and still hanging on to SPY 96 sept put. has lost me $200 in time decay but it’s there to stay until I begin trading options like daytrades.
Baltic Dry -3%. -28% last 3 weeks. Off 41% from peak on June 3.
Of course, the market is “forward-looking” for what the Market Myth is worth.
Just being sarcastic.
K,
IPSU is the best way to play sugar in the US.
BTW, look how well the MACD 90,40,16 worked on SPY 15min. Even through those massive gyrations, it kept the trade.
interesting about trasuries
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/record-treasury-demand.html
I need to invest in sugar.
I’ve used massive amounts this year feeding my hummingbird flock. Two 16oz bottles need refilling every-other-day. Cheap entertainment for the cats.
I am scared!!! another BUY signal issues by SuperK on these stupid markets (COMPX SPX etc.) but it won’t confirm till the first 4 hrs close.
K,
You can’t drop down to a lower time frame?
George
You made the comment that SD might not be able to do what you want, and I thought I would try to clear up something for you. You also had made the comment that you needed ifs and then statements to do what you wanted to do. The following code is an example of how you can think of the AND and OR statements as ifs and thens.
You use the parenthesis to parse expressions together. So this is an exit strategy and in English as follows. If the 9MA is greater than the 9MA one bar ago, then if the 2MA is lower OR +DI is less than –DI exit the trade. Else if the 9MA is growing but the MACD trend lines cross down exit the trade.
((MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,D] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,D,1] <> 1) AND
MovingAverage[MA,Close,2,0,D] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,2,0,D,1] OR
DirectionalMovement[+DI,5,13,D] < DirectionalMovement[-DI,5,13,D]) OR
(MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,D] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,D,1] = 1) AND
MACD[MACD,Close,8,13,5,D] < MACD[Signal,Close,8,13,5,D]
You can also gang expressions together and test to see if they are true.
In that one I just tested whether the 9MA was growing or shrinking, but you can have numerous conditions being met. Like MACD less than 0 AND BAR less than 36MA OR the three MA crossing the 9MA would look like this:
((MACD[Diff,Close,12,26,9,D] < 0 AND
Bar[Close,D] < MovingAverage[MA,Close,36,0,D] OR
MovingAverage[MA,Close,3,0,D] > MovingAverage[MA,Close,9,0,D]) = 1)
When expressions are true they return a 1, when the expressions are not true they return a 0. You can test for either. Hope this helps.
String
K, Sugar. Let’s wait till November. Tea is the hot thing now. Just find whatever has a slightly bad crop (or a bad Hurricane) somewhere in the world and the new digits will make a run for it. Don’t worry about supply or demand.
Stringm,
Excellent. I’ll study that code. That may be the ticket.
Thanks!
Article on Tea prices. See also how Hedge Funds have already booked their profits in Sugar. The Central Bankers must be proud.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6d06e16-8c56-11de-b14f-00144feabdc0.html
the IPSU is a sell so it’s ok i’ll wait on the sidelines
and George,
i found it best using that time frame. i am using other methods on the 5min and 1hr.
looks like all is go for 1007 futures R1 then
K:
Time to EAT?
CZZ
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/option+activity+alert+speculative+investors+discover+cosan+limited/observations.aspx?ID=94708
oops sorry for the link like that.
Mitch,
did you get EATen on the 5th and 6th of this month? or did you EAT before then and left the table
And then go shopping at JCP?
K:
I feel partially responsible for the run-up in Cosan. I discovered it months ago and it had a puny volume. I gambled and won – others discovered my sweet fishy spot.
Mitch,
I played CZZ before for a hefty profit too
so looks like we were fishing together
I refuse to buy anything at JPC at 30.75. would much prefer 22.68
on the other hand I would love to go ICE skating but it’s summer outside and I don’t like indoor rinks
K: LOL – we think similarly but that should not stop us from shopping when it’s hot . . . . lol. I bet the malls are packed in Phoenix.
of course we think alike but i gotta warn you that I am taking my SPX to the butcher shop and selling it for $1000 instead of 1005 so get ready to see some discount
K:
It’s not where you get in it’s where you get off. A car doesn’t need brakes if you don’t need to stop.
K:
Don’t make me start posting vids of Bulls throwing little clowns around . . . . .
the FXP 9 august put that I sold (aka bet that FXP would go up)
If i let it expire i keep all the credit right?
$25 is what it shows but reality is $30 because fxp put still has a $5 value.
cool beans.
URE hitting highs not seen since Friday . . .
Gaps from Fri/Mon filled time for egregious stocks to make uber’s look like goobers.
ICE has been nice for a couple of days now. No skates required.
well monday’s URE gap wants to be filled before URE goes to 4.79 and south again (i am a big bear today aren’t I?)
K:
I’m watching others EAT and looking at the sale over at JCP.
SPY 5min negative divergence on the MACD.
“…make uber’s look like goobers.”
LOL
URE is going higher taking trend line from last upward and expecting this one to meet it puts it firmly over 5.00. Then it will stand there and look around for more uppage.
BBt nearing double top on 15min.
blah blah blah
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/leading-indicators-point-to-economic.html
George:
BBT decided to retreat on that DT.
lol the ticker guy sometimes is hilarious.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1356-Treasury-Insanity-In-Support-Of-Grift.html
Yeah, it’s making a nice scalp rebound after that drop.
K Says:
August 20th, 2009 at 10:18 am
interesting about trasuries
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/record-treasury-demand.html
>>>>>> K that surging line in buying treasuries is not the UK…..its ME……lol
Mitch, before the federal elections everything is swept under the carpet not to make the electorate unhappy. One of the leading comedians recently brought a new movie to the theaters where he’s fictitiously running for chancellor with slogans like “trust me. I’m as incompetent as the others”. In a recent poll he got close to 20% of the votes. Unfortunately he is not running for real. This is not going to end well. Buy more sugar.
now I know where you live!!
Hi Phil, what is your forecast for the next week on SP ? You were expecting a c down to around 960..any changes ?
JO
YESSSSSSSs thinkorswim is awesome. new blackberry mobile app. just as am about to get a crackberry.
sogoelite is a great site to try though am heading there within the week.
Games company wants to hire unemployed Wall Street analysts
JO…. phil Says:
August 19th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
blue B is target….961- 943 http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SonFOhIfwqI/AAAAAAAABak/g6f3YHqBET4/s1600-h/spx.png
>>>>the song remains the same……. LED ZEPPELIN
Natural Gas is tanking. Good call on that Yerk.
Now let’s how that Inflation hedge (oil) will fare.
phil Says:
August 19th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
people seem too anxious to short…..tells me this upward b wave may not be over yet
>>>>>JO….. the b wave can even test the top…of course something much more bullish could be going on as i have posted
BKX and SPY look similar in their 15min charts. Both in a 15min uptrend channel. SPY is in the middle of that channel while the BKX has a broader channel and price moved down off the top somewhat about 1/4 way down abd deciding direction.
Until this channel is broken one way or the other, bias is up. This must be some sort of Elliott move but I don’t know the counts.
K,
Wait on the new release of the Storm if that’s the model you want. It’s push screen is klugy and they are going to fix it.
SPY trying to get a support lift off its 5min 36MA.
SONG REMAINS THE SAME http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGWTEK814U0
I was going to george,
but 8900 sounds appealing at the price of $80 that I will get it. i can sell it for $200-300 and then wait for storm. or just keep it
I will be one of sprint’s million customers a quarter loss next week.
DOLLAR is key to all markets http://syhardingblog.com/new/
Sprint or Verizon?
i can’t listen to this at work (no speakers)
but might be worth just a quick listen?
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/shiller-there-could-be-another-housing-bubble/
shiller says another housing bubble might occur. lol this world is so mixed. and I know news are just crap and technicals rule but the way the market is moving its boring
I am leaving Sprint for Tmobile. when I turn the equity accounts into the green I will go for verizon. for now this might be a better step.
got sprint down to $86 after taxes for 4 phones 550 mins, unlimited internet 500 texts (on one phone)
LOL got used to it until their service became crap and customer service began sucking.
now this is a hilarious story
http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2009/08/chinese-pig-farmers-hoard-copper.html
poor farmers? or smart farmers?
Tulip farmers… lol
I love SPX 1000 and so does Mitch now let’s go 990
Theives were cutting the copper out of traffic light, street light and interstate overhead directional signs here when commodities ran up last year. There’s always ways to make a buck.
Let’s get some inverse.
Shorts are tiptoeing throught the Tulips.
waiting for my signal to buy vix calls for sept. 40 anyone?
Drilling down to the SPY 5min, it is at the top of a trendline. If it breaks out, another move up.
Ok K, done EATing. Still time to go over to Penney’s?
Mitch,
I am going to EAT chinese food and negotiate with the farmers over copper cornering. sorry can’t make it to JCP
phil, cant open link you sent..where can b wave top out at in the next day or two?
K:
Ok, don’t say I never offer to take you anywhere. Be sure to gawk at the egregious Fuqi of the appetites of the SFD (piggys).
if you sell me a VIX 40 call for sept at $30 i will take your offer to EAT and shop at JCP so we can support your sponsors.
K:
I know how JCP built its business. As for EAT, it’s a simple play on uber overreaction to domestic consumer potential.
for god sakes man sell me a VIX !!!
K:
Hold on, let me snort around for a minute.
I don’t know if that is a breakout or not but price is lingering over the SPY upper trendline…. tenative at best unless some ommph comes along.