The intra-day low on Wednesday came at 10am when the horrific new-homes sales report was released. You would think that would have been a sell signal, but the market rallied for the rest of the day – including the home-builders; the XHB was up 3.15% on the day.
That, of course, was a classic example of the trading maxim: “how the market reacts to news is more important than the news itself.” When the market shrugs-off bad news, then you know it is in rally mode.
So, now we want to know if the market can keep it up as the week ends with a lot of economic data. The market plunged after last Thursday’s unemployment report, so that will be the first test this morning.
Ah Ha, shows that technicals rule. Outside information merely makes the wiggles to create the technicals to trade.
Speaking of technicals, I’ve been playing with the CCI. Stochastic and MACD are “bounded” (if that’s the word) indicators meaning they can only move “X” amount of distance before running out of room.
However, the CCI is “unbounded”. And I’m just now learning that, why? I haven’t a clue.
Turns out that it makes a difference using an unbounded oscillator. I’ll show my daily updated chart later with the CCI and its usage.
The fun never ends.
G
G
premarket fun continues
TBT sold yesterday near the bell
bought back @ 8 am today before 8:30 bond smash…
..prob going to sell it soon
as long as TNA opens green or neutral, i will take profits on that one…
debating adding to a short position on Cdn financials in some way, hfd.to is one way…
Premrket, TLT still gaining traction, TBT losing steam, you would think the opposite with a bullish opening…
randall
tlt is still down over 1/2 point from the high premarket…looks weak…still holding tbt bought before bond smash
Yesterday was bad news and the market goes up; today is good news and the market goes down.
…just sayin’…
sold TBT@ 30.84
bought premarket@ 30.42……
Mature Date 1/22/11
Delta 0.261
Gamma 0.146
Rho 0.006
Theta -0.003
Vega 0.014
Implied Vol 51.41
Joan,
I want to buy it. I’m 10% cash and 90% long of same. Depending on Open Interest and price – I can bid the spread. Wild guesses appreciated too
added hfd.to , short position on cdn financials…
probably about market neutral now,
longs are gold shares, energy, a couple cdn income trusts and a trading position in glw
shorts are on nas, cdn index, cdn financials, couple selecdted shorts on individual shares…
happy trading …
That’s a big negative drop for SPY unless it can get above its 5min 36MA. Waiting for this 15min candle to print to see if the tick down on MACD is confirmed or not.
Here’s a quick view of my SPY daily chart with the “unbounded” CCI. I’ve added a 8MA signal line to filter out volatile moves. So either a 100, -100, 8MA cross, along with the MACD is a signal.
I’ve put a vertical line where buys and sells trigger.
I’m still refining it but the idea is out to work with.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ufzyfn.jpg
The CCI filters out false MACD moves and in some cases, false stochastic moves. Tres Amigos filters out false stochastics too.
SPY resting on 15min 36MA.
Nice day. Good long-term intraday swings. SPY still unable to fill the gaps above. It also had a higher low than yesterday.
FYI, Netflix App for the iPhone is now available. Yah-Hoo!
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That’s neat George.
Here’s my 15min SPY chart. I’ve circled how, in this case, Tres Amigas kept me in the inverse trade until my quitting time.
http://i38.tinypic.com/2jg80lv.jpg
Here’s SKF with an inverse chart that shows how the trade was maintained although it looked like it was reversing.
http://i33.tinypic.com/978tc6.jpg
Mitch,
It works well too – so far.
G–
Glad I stayed the course on the inverse today (at a conference) and didn’t get stopped or sold. Remember, I bought near the EOD on wave 4 1057.50 rise on Wednesday. That position is in the money, as is the core shorts.
Looking for a low below 1040 to sell some of the shorts into, so we’ll see if wave 4 consolidation is a triangle or finished.
Glad we’re on the same side at the moment George. GDP below 1% tomorrow? hmmmm spike low and then rebound on the “expected” bad news? We’ll see….have a good weekend all if I don’t check in from Vegas.
Nice to see my account UP today as I’m down $25 from the craps table…..haha
2th,
Even if the market bounces tomorrow it may not last long.
Good luck at the ‘tables.