The TARP Gap has been holding the Q’s in thrall for almost a month now, and has been very powerful resistance. However, the Q’s are still “crawling along” the lower boundary of the gap in the $40.40 area, so they are steadily eating away at the resistance. On the other hand, that gravestone doji on Tuesday looks a lot like the one that printed on June 11th.
The market looked shaky on Wednesday morning, but the XLF, IWM, and DIA all found support at their Tuesday-morning gaps. However, the IYT fell through its gap and closed beneath it. That could be a problem since many old-timers consider the transports to be an important indicator. The EEM has also fallen below its Tuesday-morning gap, and both of these ETFs should be watched for clues as to which way the market will break. The XLF is struggling with its August 7th intra-day high, and the XME still can’t take out its June peak. Both of those ETF’s will also need to get with the program if the rally is to run higher here.
The market action is looking very similar to that of the June 11th peak. If I remember correctly, everybody was predicting a huge breakout back then. The market did the opposite of what was expected, and punished the bullish fervor with a false breakout, and then a dive.
This time, I get the impression that most traders are betting on a correction. So perhaps the market will give them a false breakdown, and then rocket higher. Just something to think about…
now that you mentioned it goldman will do a false breakout.. I mean the market oops. then people will go long and then it’ll correct right through.
oh and IYT still not a superK sell. just fyi
unless the nikkei closes the day at 10300 or lower i am very scared. then next up 10050 and then well..
lets not get too carried away
Matt – is there somewhere you’ve explained the TARP gap ?
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e00989822288330120a576e5da970c-pi
phil why did you mess with AIG? you wanted to teach me a lesson huh?
Matt,
SMN is a buy. just FYI
looking at a 5min spy this morning has been the largest consecutive selloff in a while!!! all 30 mins volume has been red. a crash imminent or is goldman and aig after $500 more from me so they can have lunch today
catsup on the tri-stars
$BPNYA is at 80.77% bulls. I think it is highly unlikely we go higher until that sentiment is changed. We are also approaching the fall season and everyone knows what can happen then.
SOLD 1000 QID for 1 point gain
k ….what the heck are you doing with aig??? i am not following that piece of crap
JIM….remember sell in may and go away???…..that didnt work…i see a big rally into sep oct….then down in nov
On AIG, the common is up, but the preferred AFF is selling off. I wonder what, if anything, that is saying…
NDX breakout may have failed…. not adding to sso long yet
phil:
Several months ago you saved somebody’s a$$ when they were going to short homebuilders on the lows back then. I think you said something like “why now?” I say thanks on their behalf. On 3, 1-2-3 bust they a$$. LOL
Or for you phil, on 1 sub c – 2 sub a – 3 sub bust they a$$.
mitch…..someday i hope i can understand what you are talking about
K……TLT very sloppy now….red flags up
phil Says:
August 25th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
BOUGHT QID…..market sloppy….correction near
>>>>>>>K………see the same things now in TLT as above
Phil; 1-2-3 Raven Style
George – WARNING youtube link.
mitch…..re your 10:36 post……see my 10:30 post
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJqMPOxT7-Y&feature=related
Maybe this will work.
I’ll watch that youtube link on my iphone.
That’s what the market needs… a pep-talk.
Hey, do you know why the Panthers use artificial turf?
…so the cheerleaders won’t graze.
George:
It’s football time. I’ve been playing “market defense” for weeks now. Ray Lewis is an inspiration to anyone that works hard and gives it all they have for themselves and the fans – he’s a total sell-out for the game. An average guy could go play defense for the Ravens and Ray Lewis can make them great.
I see a spy 15min stochastic turning up while MACD is down heavy. I’ll wait until the chop is over.
Mitch,
A guy like that is a huge asset to a team. I like natural turf better. Mud, blood and beer make a good game.
K….aig is 43 now ….what if goes back to all time highs @ $2,075.00
mitch….sorry but i am a steelers fan
mitch….the ravens long ball defense looked pretty sorry
K ….seriously…..aig looks to be in a C wave that could quickly carry to 57
K…..50 will probably stop it temporarily
phil,
you can tighten that up or go long yourself – or something in between – unless the otherside plays the long ball too much and has no ground options – then you get to eat their QB. Sometimes you invite the long ball just to get to the QB. It’s important he check down – footsteps . . . .
phil, no, no the stock conversion play in AIG has an upper limit below 50.
Phil, I fked myself since $33 selling short the $35 call so still in it
Yerk…..i didnt know the details…at least k”s risk is limited
sorry k…i know how you feel….that is why i dont use options any more
this is going down in history as the day i lost $1000 !!
50% of account lol
YAY
phil, my risk is unlimited cause i sold a call. most i could have gained was $265 and unlimited risk
yerk said the stock conversion is below 50
AIG is like hooking a sea monster in a jon boat.
lets just say i got out with my clothes still intact
K, sorry to hear that… I can’t find / recall the source. Maybe some comment to a post on ZH but that place is a bit unstructured. Pin in haystacks. And you’ve got all the momo traders and the HFT crowd in there, so almost anything goes short-termish… GL to you
it’s ok yerk thanks.
NDX ….on macd daily sell …rsi neg divergence…possible failed breakout…the leader looks sick….rest of market is suspect.. just going to watch a while…………..good luck all ……….hasta
the zombie (AIG) is not dead
Well fat-boy DOW got pushed down the stairs and had to get all the way back up. Fatty is so strong! Go Fatty, Go Fatty, show’m you can shine in September. No one believes you can do it. Prove’m wrong Fatty.
lmfao
Its now obvious to me, P2 or Wave C will not die until the gov’t spends its last dollar of stimulus.
Unbelievable to see an article like this and the market still advancing into the stratosphere:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Plunge-in-natural-gas-prices-apf-3824711955.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
Summary:
Glut of NG continues and is getting worse.
China turning off its key manufacturing industries for building materials.
Bank failures still rising.
FDIC says bank loan losses continue to soar.
Gasoline demand is falling.
Credit is still stickier than super glue.
Once the free beer…er…”stimulus” wears off – we are in big trouble.
lol
uhoh dare I say it?
hint. repeat of my mistake
15min rules.
Nearing tops and bottoms.
Shorts are scared stiff. They can never hold on as long as this market is in the weekly uptrend. Not going to happen.
Buy the 15min, take a nap, wake up and sell.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SpaKHG-VAzI/AAAAAAAAEYg/GMBMYz43W4g/s1600-h/CPC.png
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/afraidtotrade/NRSd/~3/yC_XCvR_5ko/
georgeeee
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets/
Tri-Star dojis. 50/50 chance. I call it a Market Myth Miff’ed.
The $DXY is collapsing – at some point it won’t be good for the market
shorted citigroup via a $4 put for sept
max loss $5 max gain $395
eh this seems like lump change now that 1 grand is dug out by the zombie.
I am heartless
NICE humpty-dumpty on SKF today the way it shot up at the opening then crashed. UYG was made for me.
MOOOooo
K,
Excellent risk/reward ratio.
Wow, BBT has been a digital slinky the past few days. Talk about your ideal scalp setups.
UUP took a tumble today. That’s the thing… keep the dollar low, stocks high, get re-elected.
i like watching aig getting their ballz handed to themselves
One more punch to the top today? Waiting on SPY to see what it does with its 15min 36MA support where it’s setting right now.
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2009/08/october-vix-future-trading-at-big.html
K,
Which AIG are you looking at? Mine has a $4 upside move. Sorry I missed that one!
haha george like i hinted above i repeated my mistake
i see it at $46 or less
Ha! Gotcha. No resolution today for overall direction. Kibbles and Bits here at the ending.
SPY is indeed trying to bounce off that 15min support. BUT, 15min stochastic turning down.
OK, if it continues in the current direction, we got a Tweety-Bird candle on SPY. That’s where it looks like a baby bird has its head stretched out being fed by its mother.
george look at my pic yesterday. SPY has to close above or below the levels i drew for any real move.
http://i32.tinypic.com/acym4x.png
K,
Thanks. Yep, ranging in a tight area here. I’ll look for a breakout in either direction.
btw george you can watch intraday candles for fun to get used to the different ones
Doesn’t a hammer mean more upside or is that when they form at a bottom? Either way it shows buying pressure.
just fyi SPY R1 today was 103.69 and it fell just after reaching it.
but the pivot is 103.09
BBT has been a great scalp candidate today. Almost as if it’s doing that for ppl to learn.
bad day for me and coworker,
800 loss for me for the day and 1.5k for him auto repair. LOl
DARN IT!
wwow
http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20090827/dude-you-posted-your-earnings-3-minutes-early/?mod=ATD_rss
dell comes 3 minutes too early and explodes
retracement to 1010 (fakeout like matt said) move up to 1040-1050 then big correction.
Blog Post: Fake correction followed by a fake rally? http://bit.ly/13cOxe
K,
Nice chart.
Number of troubled banks rises to 416.
http://tinyurl.com/lospub
and new bank fees because FDIC is going broke:
http://tinyurl.com/lsxo5t
How do you get rid of the wolf at the door? Call it a dog. Redux Big Brother credit ratings to let more qualify more folks to spend.
http://tinyurl.com/ns4nhc
LMAOOOOOOOOOOO this is disasterous trouble if it plays out picture perfect people will get fooled.
http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/08/dow-and-1930.html
futures levels just cause these are important times
R3 1056.25
R2 1044.50
R1 1038.25
P 1026.50
S1 1020.25
S2 1008.50
S3 1002.25
currently above the pivot by 1.50 at 1028.
japan figures weren’t good but we know nobody cares anymore.. or do they