On Thursday and Monday, SPY printed bearish Hanging Man candles on its daily chart. At the end of each of those days, “experts” on CNBC said that they were impressed by the market’s reversal, and were bullish on the next day. One of them was Jon Najarian on Fast Money Monday night. The other might have been Dennis Gartman on Thursday night, though I’m not sure. It makes you wonder about the technical competence of the so-called experts that you see on CNBC. It’s not like spotting a Hanging Man is rocket since after all…
Speaking of candles, on Wednesday, SPY made a candle on its daily chart that may be a Gravestone Doji. It has the right shape, but you have to consider the placement also. The candle is appearing after a four-day downswing. Is that enough for a gravestone to signal the end of a trend? Maybe. The McClellan Oscillator is oversold, so maybe the market will be able to muster some sort of bounce soon. But even if it does so, I think the heavy volume on Tuesday is a warning to not trust a bouncing market here.
The VIX’s daily bar spent nearly the entire day above its upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday. That’s not something you see very often. It happened at the bottom on March 17, 2008, but then again before the big plunge on September 16, 2008. It could signify the end of a minor panic, or the beginning of a larger panic. Speaking of which…
Could gold be soaring because FDIC boss Shelia Bair said that commercial real estate was going to “drive bank failures”? If I’m not mistaken, she said that on Kudlow’s show Tuesday night. Maybe the VIX has something to complain about after all…
On Wednesday, the market consolidated Tuesday’s trend on low volume. The pattern must be classified as a bear-flag until proven otherwise. If the market starts to drop on strong volume again, the August 17th low at 978.51 will likely be tested.
The XLF did indeed find support at its August 18th gap, which I mentioned yesterday. It was able to bounce from the top of the gap and did not fall into it, but it was unable to lift off of it. And now the XLF is perched right on top of the gap. Will it make an “echo gap” and jump right on down to 13.65? Film at eleven.
The XME also bounced off of its August 18th gap, but managed to stay aloft, unlike the XLF. However, the XME seems like an unlikely candidate to lead the market higher since it never even managed to surpass its June high. The IYT and EEM also bounced off of their August 18th gaps. So, that is a very important level to the market now. If any major ETF closes below that gap, it will be a bad omen.
September becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
There is so much piker activity pushing price around that it is hard to gauge what’s going on, especially like you mention with materials and metals. When the institutions do come in, just very modestly, you see something like Monday (that was a very modest tit for tat with the institutions). I’m thinking that when the real money comes back to the turrets next week the direction will definitely be established.
even though i will probably get murdered today I just love being right. 1020 we go then POW POW BAM
Dollar behaving crazy again.
dollar is about to file for unemployment
We’re getting one more ramp.
Fade, draw in shorts, surge.
It’s comforting to know the market is working so well.
http://www.stocktock.com/2009/09/03/intraday-commentary-09032009/
few nice charts
someone named dave used to poo poo KASS here. DAVE was WRONG http://www.thestreet.com/story/10593715/1/kass-seven-things-to-do-now.html
bulls dream of gold up -> dollar down -> stocks up
K………idan is very good
Yerk…..i am a little bull now……a calf….
YERK …a calf at a crossroads http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/2009-09-02_spx1.png
phil, that looks like my prediction if you read my blog post.
if too lazy to click my name… here is a excerpt
Scenario 2: (Green Lines) Go down further for the next day or to and reach 985-990 for a close (it could go down further and still close above 985 to be valid). Then hit ~1020 shake a few shorts that believe 1000 level has cracked and proceed into 950’s.
my 100 million dollar a day dream
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azB7kHpYKRy4
K……bought QID to partially hedge my long SPX
phil Says:
September 2nd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
MITCH…..friendly warning….be prepared for gap down in TLT if you hold overnight…we are almost to key resistance near 98 and corrective wave action from the low implies lows at 87.50 will be taken out
>>>>>>>>>>hope all is well…..
phil glad you are partially bearish with the QID purchase.
yes a hedge but a fully confident bull would go in there without a shield to fight the bears
K…..as i posted above i am now a little bull……a CALF !
Phil,
sorry missed that.
phil:
I took a 15% position in TLT. I was too uber bearish on the long bond so this is probably ok to temper me a bit. I might even build me a little core around it.
Jobless claims worse than expected, that’s why we gapped up.
BOUGHT ….TLT……STILL looking for 98
ok market got huge boost from manufacturing
darn I love how i’m right but I stay on the wrong train tracks 
SELL…order for TLT placed @ 97.55
phil:
Call it the MIB resistance.
MITCH….it is where the trendline connecting recent daily tops sits
shorted aig again max loss 85 max profit 2.6k
this time am staying in!
BILL GROSS ..may have put in the bond TOP yesterday with his “30 yr bonds are a bargain” comment yesterday
phil:
Bill Gross’s ass is stuck so far out there he has to make public appearances as often as possible – I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes – until I was his age.
spx is trading in a very tight range today. so we can hit 1020 no problem tomorrow.
as a side not the volume is lighttttt
GOOOOLD 100 or 90? hmm
GOLD SELL signal on your site last week K……well…..?????…i sold all my gold holdings yesterday based on your sell signal…….(just kidding)
well if you don’t pay for signals you get reverse calls
I just notices on the daily AIG bounced right off a very important level for my setup.
If it had broken below another buck and closed there $23 would have been next level.
me getting short was bad idea but I have peace of mind that $87 is only at line
btw I also made a vertical option call on gold $90 sept
$15 risk. (so i lost lunch money if we don’t crash this month)
K are you looking at AIG daily chart with 18dsma and boll bands???…this is textbook…..4 days ago it was back inside bb…..then touched 18dsma yesterday and bounced hard..now gap up
K …aig trend is UP…next taget is daily bb @ 49
yes:P
no am looking at acceleration bands on daily.
I think we have to explore 980′s today. I don’t like doing that but it seems likely to me.
K…resistance @ 44 could stop it …put your fibs on it ..44 looks like 50% fib from top 5 days ago
Mitch, exploring it would seem perfect! then the runup to 1020 that I keep preaching then a 70pt move from there at least
now let me run fibs cause i havent done it in a while
K: If we explore 980′s a perky bounce back, even after tomorrow’s “surprise,” will be 1012, IMO.
K……..GLD starting to look like AIG just before it crashed down to 18dsma…..are you still on GLD SELL????
Phil i told you yesterday gold is a buy. but i bought $90 puts
)
it’s been a buy since 92.5 on the 25th (my blog i last said gold was a sell on 24th but remember I update my picks every weekend so
k…….if gold is a buy …why are you buying puts??
K Says:
September 3rd, 2009 at 9:14 am
my 100 million dollar a day dream
>>>>>>>>>K my cousin works on wall st….he funded the new library for our college and since we have the same last name the library is named after ME!
Haha
Why buy puts? Why short aig when aig is bullish
GOLD http://slopeofhope.com/2009/09/gold-timing.html
K,
Why trade?
Hank,
why not?
George,
Remember that bearish candlestick formation on BBT ~17th of august?
it’s still holding
K, you right.
Ok, folks are seeing value at this SPX level. GL to all.
so far this is still holding true I hope.
Jump to 1020
correction to my above post. NO we need to break 990 for the 1020 to happen!! if 980-985 is not hit I will not be satisfied
a fun healthcare video using a pig
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svCQJvP1S8g
Oink
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SqBUproTPyI/AAAAAAAABn0/D40ljLzNtQE/s1600-h/spxdaily.png
compare this to my trend line (check 1020 link 4 above)
at least I am not a lone ranger
Speaking of pigs,
I checked my latest Wal-Mart receipt. I buy my groceries there as often as possible. On my last visit I took a look at the taxes and there are as follows (drum roll, please): Tax 1= 7.75%, Tax 2 = 2.00%.
I don’t know how this compares to other states. Some have higher while others have no taxes on food. Anyway, to add insult to injury, the governor is raising sales taxes another .01 cent. Of course, she says this is only temporary and it will go away in 2011. Yeah, that’s how we got to 9.75% to begin with by adding “temporary” taxes. Incremental tax cancer.
No, the problem is that all governments simply spend too much. I read somewhere that government jobs used to be below the private sector for compensation and benefits and they now surpass it.
I have nothing against government employees or civil servants – whatever. But do we need so many? Geeze. Our county must have hundreds of pickup trucks and other vehicles in the municipal parking lot.
When Archie Bunker was asked how he would fix the airplane hijacker probelem, he said he would arm all of the passengers. Let’s make everyone a government employee. That pig would starve if we did that.
Did I mention that our fire taxes doubled? Yes, DOUBLED – just like that.
Porky is alive and well.