The Daily Jobs Update is now up and running and competing head-to-head with TrimTabs in reporting on trends in the withholding-tax data. The flagship chart shown here depicts the
business cycle of the US economy by plotting the second derivative of growth in the paychecks of American workers. Such advanced charts are not available anywhere else. (Click the chart to go to the live version which will update every business day at 4pm EST.)
In March of 2008, as the economy was poised to take one of its steepest dives in history, TrimTabs proclaimed the recession to be over, citing “growth” in the withholding data. Preposterous! At the same time, I posted “Withholding Craters!” here on the blog.
TrimTabs charges thousands of dollars for their research. And not only do I charge a tiny fraction of that on DailyJobsUpdate.com, but I provide awesome charts that update as soon as the Treasury Department releases the data each day.
Note to financial media: There’s a new sheriff in Withholding Town. Check with me before publishing something to make sure that you have the straight story.
Take that TrimTabs!
And since Goldman Sachs owns a stake in TrimTabs, take that Goldman Sachs!
Note: You will be pleased to know that the Alexa rating of DailyJobsUpdate.com is, already, far above that of TrimTabs.com.
Note: the chart above is delayed by 90 days. So, it is current through 3Q09. Only DailyJobsUpdate.com subscribers can see the real-time charts, though both sets of charts update every day.
Excellent. Thanks Matt.
Congrats Matt!!
and once again HAPPY new year to all!!!
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also on a funny note… I sent my investing buddy an email yesterday because he asked for my view on the last day of the year (since i’m not reading news)
——-
This was yesterday at ~2:45 when i sent
“Looks to me like a big 10 point move possible tomorrow on the SPX. Wouldn’t bet anything on it though just casually staring ”
well today I bet at the right time with $98 bucks and added $10 for the day.
My main reason for doing it besides the technicals of SPY?
TED spread jumped 25% yesterday… just you wait when some big news comes out to make up for the next crash
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again Matt–love the site, love what you do, and love that you let us share in doing it.
Happy New Year to everyone.
Looks like we are back in the rectangle according to the close, so Monday will be very interesting. Will the Monday upside gap pattern continue? But after hours, the SPX has gained 2 points and is sitting just above 1117.
I’m sitting in mostly cash, but have stakes in SDS, QID, TBT and I’m playing as a long in the DRYS triangle (bought at $5.95).
oh just FYI be prepared for massive bank failures on friday Jan 8th because FDIC has had last friday off and am sure they’re taking tomorrow off as well…
2 fridays in a row is at least 8-12 banks waiting + the 4-5 next week… oh holy cow I will sleep well next week haha
Well done Matt: I’m totally over MSM.
How about a web site for pitchforks and torch supplies for 3Q 2010?
Giv’em hell Matt!!!
Happy New Year!
Kudos!!! Matt. You’re number one.
K,
Now that Junglegirl has her equipment working…
what are the stars telling us? Go to…
….mmacycles.com…click on “weekly Preview”
top left side…click on latest week.
the stars? heck i havent been able to use my telescope in a long while thanks to someone sending clouds and snow this way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJx2T3hyUE8
I hate that about Slurpee’s and Cheerios. I get the Wal-Mart brand of their imitation Cheerios which are just as good,,, well, almost as good: Hmmm, wonder if they’re made in China…
George,
Wal-Mart ships them in daily from China.
…Do you feel okay?
Only a small trace of led george not much. How else are you going to live past the human years?
as of this moment there are 990 unread articles in my economy category.. I will mark them all as read and reset the odometer (if it goes over 1000 it just says 1000+ so i want to track the exact number
)
I do feel queezy after eating baby food made in China.
We got a Haier Wine Cellar and Electrolux jiffy vacuum broom this weekend, both made in China. Black and Decker tools – made in China. Our “expecting” daughter’s stroller – made in China.
(This post was made in China)
I don’t mind a little lead poison, just not the kind that comes in bullet form.
K,
I bet you end up reading all of those articles. You won’t be able to take it – admit it!
say what?
990+25 = 1015 so far…
all marked as read
sorry George. I thought you knew me better by now (after all i’ve challenged myself before and publicly too on here lol )
there’s an easy button
(this pic isnt mine but yeahhh) http://setupemailaddress.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/503-google-reader-mark-all-as-read.jpg
hahahahaa
http://www.gstatic.com/popgadget/images/ZTQ5ZWIzN2NiMzE4MTM4MA-lg.jpg
IKEA is assembled in Mexico.
Check out these long-term charts at http://www.adenforecast.com/
Click on the “A picture is worth a thousand words…” link under “Special Charts”, the first sentence on the page.
George,
After eating lead, do you feel heavy?
K and George,
Suggest you check…chartsedge.com/mp/…
every trading day.
If(?) we get follow thru on Monday, things
could turn bearish quickly. Only the tape
will tell us if multi-month wave C has
started or not. I checked 50 expert
blogs…about 25 of them have the market
moving higher into the middle of 2010…
another 25 have major wave C down starting
now.
…K will break the tie.
Tony’s …elliott wave lives on…Jan 2nd
review is worth reading.
If Tony’s forecast is correct, Junglegirl’s
equipment will not start working until
the SPX hits the 1160 area.
“After eating lead, do you feel heavy?”
OMG! FIRST belly bouncer of 2010… I needed that.
Thanks, and here’s my lead answer:
http://tinyurl.com/yctf87z
Here’s my 5min chart. Proof that SPYders have many legs. Leg 1 shows the “very” long 5min uptrend breakdown. Leg 2 shows the false breakout, and I didn’t know where to go with leg 3 so I just waited until the next pattern, then leg 4 was an excellent place to wait for the tight rectangle to breakout.
http://i45.tinypic.com/21np1zd.jpg
Getting there with these trendlines.
Julie, how will I break the tie? Am no expert, just an egg-sport.
“After eating lead, do you feel heavy?”
Will Trim Tabs help me lose that weight?
nop but Special K will
Ha! Fat free? Must be tree bark.
better than lead!
you feel as light as feathers on the moon.
Lead poisoning causes loss of appetite so maybe I’ll lose some weight… or go to the moon.
Speaking of which, I haven’t found any stats about the market and a “blue moon”.
you mean my blue moon that’s on nasa’s site? LOL
google blue moon nasa 2004
i am so cool
That is kool, K. Donka.
NFL To Investigate Colts For Tanking Game Against Jets
LOL
Julie, don’t forget my SPX 1180 call around Christmas due to FIB data.
My UUP chart from early DEC is still valid and could support that move to 1180 if the dollar starts to slide again.
K, where do you think AAPL will end its run? I’ve studied the chart and see a Fib target of $227 and EWT could be much higher. Daneric pointed out a weekly “evening star doji.” Any price above $213.50 will negate that chart pattern. What does Nison say about volume with the evening star? I personally like to see volume pick up on a reversal candlestick, but low volume on a rise in price is always bearish as well.
Over the weekend I re-read William O’Neill’s book, “How to make money selling stock short.” In his world, we are WAY early in getting ready to short at this point. Be patient…
How many on this blog think Monday will be a big selling day by individuals that postponed their selling until 2010 (for tax purposes)? If that is the case, a great buying opportunity may arise as everything gets completely oversold.
Final thought: skimming through Money magazine (Dec 09 issue, came to the office and I don’t put money or political mags out in the reception area) I found a poll of individual investors’ 2010 expectations. The sheep are standing in line to be shorn…42% feel that the DOW will be up over 10% in 2010, 31% feel it will be up by 1 to 10%, 11% feel it will be down by 1 to 10%, and 16% feel it will be down by 10%+. One priceless quote is this, “It’ll be higher. But I’m not willing to invest yet. I want to see unemployment go down first.” Hank, that bullish sentiment you pointed out at 79% recently seems in the neighborhood with this poll taken in November. Give me some more upside to 1180 and suck in some more investors. Besides, some people have to make their 2009 (and some 2010) IRA and 401(k) contributions in January.
2thfixr,
I did say i wasnt going for any news till the 4th but that was finance news.. I still sucked in the tech news and this is today… a few days before the big january event apple and others host every year.
http://techie-buzz.com/gadgets-news/islate-specifications-leaked.html
that seems like a mighty computer and the price will determine how well it sells, there is also rumor that another company will unveil their own tablet same day as well so we’ll see where apple goes.
I hung on to a 190 January put at a loss for now.
2thfixr,
remember the weekly doji just means the trend has slowed and it doesn’t mean reversal, that what Nison says about that.
Thanks K for the updates. Is your 190 put for Jan 2010 or Jan 2011? I’m thinking of playing AAPL with a Jan 2011 put in the low to mid-$200′s once their tablet is announced and their earnings come out later in the month. It would be nice if the VIX also stays under 20, so the price on the put remains relatively low….
O’Neill points out that many “leading” stocks don’t break down (for shorting) until 6 months AFTER the market tops and those stocks have made their highs as well.
it’s for 2010 lol and it has lost just over 50% of its value..
my SPY 84 Jun ’10 put is the longest i have into play right now.
futures pivots…
Pivot is at 1115.63
current price is 1115.50
S1-S3 are 1106 1110 1090
R1-R3 are 1121.5 1131 1137
futes up now…
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 79.92 +0.56 +0.70
Natural Gas 5.735 +0.203 +3.67
Corn 414.5 +0.75 +0.18
Soybeans 1048.5 +4.0 +0.38
30yr Bond 115.15625 -0.21875 -0.19
10yr Note 115.453125 -0.390625 -0.34
NY Gold 1095.9 -0.3 -0.03
NY Silver 16.895 +0.05 +0.30
Emini S&P 1115.5 +4.75 +0.43
Emini Nasdaq 1869.75 +11.00 +0.59
Emini Dow 10414 +49 +0.47
in theory i should close my nas100 short @ 1864…but have been stubborn to hold on to it…why did mkts tank last 20 minutes on thursday and now futes making up a fair bit of that ground back…hmm…guess we’ll see monday morning…
on the VIX
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2010/01/vxx-vix-the-start-of-2010-will-be-much-more-volatile-.html