Triv Top-Ticks Tech
I didn’t short the exact top of the QQQQ on Thursday afternoon, but I was pretty darn close. (See my original post here.)
And in case you’re wondering, I did not take any profits since the SPY puts that I sold at the close on Friday. This bear market has only begun to growl again. If you look at the move off of the March low as a “bear flag” retracement of the October-to-March plunge, the technical resolution of that pattern would see the SPY moving to the $100 area - perhaps another 35 points down from here. So, I’m in no hurry to take profits. (I would make a chart, but the more money I make, the lazier I get. If you don’t know what a bear flag is, you need to study up on your technical chart analysis.)
Is it too late to sell? With the market so oversold, I hesitate to recommend selling here. With sentiment so bearish, a tidbit of good news could ignite a short squeeze. Of course, I expect 99% of the news to be bad, but don’t forget the impressive short squeeze that we had on Thursday.
If you want to short here, you should be mentally prepared to take a lot of pain in the short run. I have some cash left, but I will probably wait for a dead-cat bounce before I deploy it short.
June 29th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
[...] fact, I used an oscillator to top-tick tech on June 5th. That’s right, I bought a tranche of QID right at the very top. Pretty snazzy, [...]