Solace for the Bears
DIA closed above its upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart while IWM couldn’t even make it past the center line. Large caps outperforming small caps is something that happens toward the end of a bull market. The big funds reduce their risk by leaving the small-cap casino, and circle the less-volatile large-cap wagons.
If you are bullish however, you should be watching to see if IWM plays “catch up” with some searing out-performance.
IWM’s volume has declined for three days in a row now, and it’s daily chart still fits the pattern of a bear flag. It has yet to retrace 61.8% of its fall from the October peak, while the NDX has made a new rally high close.
Maybe the big funds are taking profits on their small caps, and rolling the cash into large caps as a way to play it safe until year-end.
H&S Hopes
If you are still dreaming of a head-and-shoulders top, pin your hopes on the NASDAQ composite and the daily advance/decline line charts.
If you enjoy reading, buy the book “Too
Big To Fail”. It’s a very good read…you
will not believe who Paulson meets with…
but maybe you will.
After (from last post), I am travelling all the time with work. I am sitting on a small long position trying to recoup my small losses since Aug 1. Not fighting the tape anymore.
I am using this chart to stop myself from going short (thanks to Paula).
http://www.timingpointprojector.com/
I will become more active when work cools down. And when Matt and Phil and the rest of you become more bearish.
This one tells me to step carefully.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
Larry, thanks for your post.
futures early this morning, argh, need more sleep more than i needed to know this, yawn…
Futures Prices
Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 79.18 -0.25 -0.32
Natural Gas 4.591 -0.079 -1.71
Corn 386.00 +19.00 +4.95
Soybeans 972.0 +17.0 +1.74
30yr Bond 118.5625 +0.0625 +0.05
10yr Note 118.53125 +0.109375 +0.09
NY Gold 1103.7 +2.3 +0.21
NY Silver 17.44 -0.04 -0.23
Emini S&P 1088.75 -3.00 -0.27
Emini Nasdaq 1761.5 -5.00 -0.28
Emini Dow 10156 -36 -0.36
hey after. EWJ is down 1.23% in afterhours
have a good trading day guys/gals.
make money and learn something new.
adios
Larry, curiously the most reliable EW guy I know has a forward looking count which would be almost perfectly in line with the timingpoint-stuff (third x-wave or whatever they call it). He is expecting one more lower low though. Then we either make a run higher (not sure about the height like timingpoint is predicting) or go bottom fishing. Interim top today or tom.
You need to have lots of trust in governments if you expect this to end well.
Yerk Says: “You need to have lots of trust in governments if you expect this to end well.”
I hereby nominate you to quote of the year.
The primary bond dealers love the money they
make from bond auctions…want the Treasury
to float more debt as they help Treasury cook
the demand numbers.
Larry & Yerk,
This game will have a sad ending…but only
God knows when.
SPX breakout or test…can SPX stay
above its 20 DMA??? This week may
tell us.
Julie,
GE shut down a solar division last week because of profit margin issues. Whodathunk you can’t make money when you’re totally strung out and on top of that backwards? GE from my observation seems to be a tool of hindrance?
Too harsh?
Julie, it will be just after we see some extreme panic-buying.
GE just getting mercilessly hammered.
London purveys a story regarding IEA’s report that basically says there’s a lot of oil out here. Like we don’t know that we’re swimming in the stuff and demand is shrinking as the world changes it’s mpg and even the energy propelling the personal automobile. This getting comical – if GE wasn’t so low it and any other big ass company would be red card plays – mercilessly short material. XOM get your integrated self down !
Here’s the Multiplier that Matt refers to once in a while. It will be going further down on the next reading.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT
New highs indeed. SPY trying to get there. I’m still looking at that SPY daily gap up it made a couple of days ago and it’s a biggie.
Maybe a blow-off top then reversal?
SPY has broken both its 1 and 5min 36MAs and is heading toward the 15min 36MA. At that point I expect it to try to recover.
SRS trying for a 9/36/15 cross. Could be the real deal or a Humpty… only the 1min knows.
Larry thanks for your links and comments. I follow you closely because you bring a “worldly perspective” to the investment experience.
That TimingPoint chart is calling for a top around 1270 by mid to late November, pretty ambitious I think, but well worth being very cautious on the short side until after turkey dinner.
All hell breaks loose next year around tax day, sounds about right.
IWM has fallen out of bed with a 9/36 cross down. Let’s see if the go back up stalls, then we might have something.
String
MATT……are you watching $bkx….it retraced 38% of the drop from oct 14 peak…ralling in 3 wave corrective fashion …now overlapping the first wave….we could be heading for new lows now….
Stringm,
Have you recovered well? Good to hear from you.
String,
I think the IWM will recover within the next 15 minutes.
SPY is certainly trying to recover, up against its 1min 36MA for the second time trying to bust through.
MATT…key number is 43 on $bkx……….EXACTLY 43.00 for overlap of 2nd wave
MATT….$BKX was also turned back at previous 4th wave resistance and the declining 18sma….THIS IS TEXTBOOK STUFF!!!
George
I am fine, Doc released me yesterday. Said I could do anything I was man enough to do. Just don’t do a bunch of it.
String
If you look at yesterdays blabber from me I wanted 1097 to start making soup. So far its been boiling well under low heat
R2K down 1.25% what gives?
2:00 IWM at 59+?
MITCH…..2pm iwm crashing to new lows
Phil,
Well this how they make a book huh? IWM shouldn’t do that but XOM and GE could – and C.
MITCH only 8c to new low on IWM and i still have 17 min ………
IWM impulse wave down at 10:30. ABC correction until 1:00. Odds favor you but the weight of overall trend keeps you without conviction.
Marker consolidating for move higher rest of the week?
If SPY keeps hanging on to it’s 15min 36MA consolidation until that MACD cycles, it just may head for the top again.
MITCH…..looks like th BUZZER is going to save you
I should be more precise but time is sometimes of the essence or at the least the travelers should think so when trying to catch a ride.
Now I’m starved having used my lunch time staring at the chart in fear of phil’s ruler.
George,
Right now the SPX has a perfect doji on its
daily chart…and if it closes below yesterday’s
close, we will have a key reversal.
Let’s pray that we do not have any more Ft. Hood’s
SPY 60min MACD trendlines have closed to the downside but not crossed.
Mitch, LOL! I’ll email you a sandwich.
Julie,
Tks. Amen to the Ft. Hood sentiment.
Im at chicfila now!
I’ve lost money in the market but gained 10lbs of lean muscle in 7 intense low weight workouts
Hope you guys made money today. I’ve just started cooking the soup.
This looks like the market digesting yesterday’s gains. Clearly it wants to move higher and unless the SPY 15min time frames fails here, it will go higher.
Most of the inverse got a Tres Cruzar around 2pm.
NO! I meant most of the underlying got a Tres Cruzar. BOO… Another Senior Citizen Moment.
k, thanks to you and Livermore I’m up some and have a plan of action going with the 1st 1/3 today.
MITCH…….i was staring at the chart for 1/2 hour too ..but i ate first..lol
gained 10lbs of lean muscle in 7 intense low weight workouts …………………K >> you know this is impossible ..right?
IWM is at 4th wave resistance ..looks like one more pop higher … then CRUNCH TIME
phil,
Is that crunch down, I assume it is after the pop.
Phil. Over 5 weeks? I only go twice a week.
Lol I am not promoting any products so no need to lie. Just personal satisfaction
phil,
Anything is possible with natzi soup!
Ok maybe you meant about the lean muscle part. If so maybe that’s exagerated so ill leave it up to the doc.
Now clarify for me why is imposible. (Sorry Matt its not after 4pm lol just this once)
george…..i mean DECISION TIME.. IWM will have to prove itself
k….later
overlap of 58.70 could spell trouble for iwm…plus decline now looking impulsive
plus iwm below 4th wave resistance again
Thanks phil… I suspected that’s what you meant.
That last short-covering on SPY was ~50% move. I’ll set my fibs to see exactly what it was.
MITCH…..you still in EAT ??? it looks similar to bkx and iwm
if we don’t take out today’s high by the close this is PERFECT for my trendline.
if we do and keep going 1113 by 11/13 like i said.
IWM….the battle of 58.90……
May have a big move in stock prices tomorrow cause small move today in Mc Oscillator
scotty which way? up or down
TZA is rocking
got me some tza 12.5 nov calls
Phil,
Re: EAT
I have some left. I rotated a portion of the sales proceeds to a short gold play.
1085 is the line as posted. Got retested today. If broken support 1065, otherwise targets 1100 and 1125.
K,
I’d say first it goes up, make a new high, then down to fill that gap. There’s even a gap on SPY weekly; I don’t recall seeing that before but I’m sure it has happened.
K,I would imagine up,why would the market go down? Mc. Os never says which way though.We will see ,i may be wrong
just wanting to be sure lol. I just woke up from a nap and have yet to evaluate things. I guess if its up my TZA calls will lose value. lol
“The New York Times reports that about 10 percent of electricity generated in the United States comes from fuel from dismantled nuclear bombs, mostly Russian. ‘It’s a great, easy source’ of fuel, said Marina V. Alekseyenkova, an analyst at Renaissance Bank and an expert in the Russian nuclear industry that has profited from the arrangement since the end of the cold war. But if more diluted weapons-grade uranium isn’t secured soon, the pipeline could run dry, with ramifications for consumers, as well as some American utilities and their Russian suppliers.’”
Ahh NOW i see why we want Iran to stop. we want their uranium!
DUh! how obvious
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14984.htm
K what does that chart mean?? We go to 1125 pullback to 1080 then up to 1250 by EOY?
Wow i know its early but they are running those futes up,you have to think 1250 into EOY.Dollar bubble couple years away.Never seen 2 bubbles in the space of 12-16 months,starting to like Phils 15k dow in the next couple of years
scotty. Futures being driven up early will surely mean a crappy day tomorrow.
Okok i will not go against my ideas because TED dropped another 6% today
looks like the chart larry is following that paula provided us might be where things go.
I will keep an eye on it.
http://in.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idINHKG28699520091110?sp=true
another bear caught in a pickle or ?
That institutional selling is making lower lows and lower highs – can you tell what I’ve been studying lately?
Goldman’s Playbook?
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/Svos92OEprI/AAAAAAAAFW4/bI0V2fqDZrk/s1600-h/VLEDaily2.png
Good chart K!
I’ll be home tomorrow so might get some trading and of course spamming done.
Happy Veteran’s day George, Julie’s Grandpa and everyone else on here that has served in the military!
Randall, tax day. We have to wait for that long?
We have a property bubble already in Hong Kong. Singapore is next. Then probably Mumbai, Macau and Shanghai. I thought the bubble was about to deflate – I was wrong.
FED wants to ease at these levels until unemployment reverses in the U.S. Every other CB more or less follows FED. Will we see a mad dash to emerging markets, liquidity-fuelled serial-bubbles based on a weak reserve currency?
I have given up. I have 80% in NOK and Asian currencies. I will gamble with the last 20%. Follow technical analysis that looks sensible to a simpleton like me and sit for a few weeks at the time.
Here’s my play of the day and an example of the Tres Cruzars.
The first shot is the 1,5,15 time frames and their respective crosses.
The second shot is WHY the trade was taken… the hourly MACD was positive (trendlines separated, moving up) and the stochastic was moved up by the cross. There is a difference in the action when the MACD trendlines are positive above the zero line or below.
Shot 1:
http://i33.tinypic.com/33o7a6w.jpg
Shot 2:
http://i35.tinypic.com/azcina.jpg
K,
Thanks for the vet pet.
Same from me – to all the veterans, thank you for serving and to those who are civilian veterans, thanks for your support.
Good call on the doji and reversal day Julie. I’ll echo the sentiment on Ft. Hood. Had an uncle stationed there many years ago.
K,
Veteran’s day – Thanks. USN 1984-90
Also the bond market and The Federal Reserve Bank are closed.
From Barry R. blog very cool scale demonstration. (Not market related)
http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/begin/cells/scale/
I’m currently writing up a few reports. we have a money manager coming to listen to our fund presentation at school. I have my team in shape. Looking back we got PG stock at 59.30 and it’s now at 61.86
See when they listen to me?
now it doesn’t look like this recent rally in PG will hold but I’ll keep it till we present 
The same play affected almost all of the underlying I was following. Here is the BBT play:
http://i34.tinypic.com/21czdwx.jpg
K,
Nice going. That will be excellent experience giving a presentation. You may be hired on the spot!
Haha,
It’s funny how I just do things for fun then people make propositions while I see others offering to send resume to everyone they meet.
PG report created. Maybe I will post the report one of these days so you can see my quality and criticize.